[Basic] Girls Locker Room Mafia - Game Over

[Sakaea]

Whats wrong with statistics? As you said it is viable.

[Nolder]

lmfao, using my assest to get what i want. great scene Nol and Go Town!!

 

 

*jiggles her jugs and skips out of the thread*

I hate to be a party pooper here but you're the girl who banged her head on the locker and had your towel stolen

I mean...I guess you could be naked/half naked

I didn't specify

but yeah you weren't the girl that took her bra off

[bgrishinko]

Whats wrong with statistics? As you said it is viable.

 

I think that it warrants a reread of said player, plus Mawth... and me for that matter. I'm sure there is scum somewhere there.

 

In fact, You might be lying still. There are 9 of us left, I'm guessing 3 scum. We don't have a ton of wiggle room here. Let's take a look back at the previous days, shall we? Also I figure there should be some info out there since only Vanilla have really been taken out.

[mmeeshal]

Haha, wow, that scene made me laugh, but I also felt a bit uncomfortable reading it... XD

 

Okay, I am no longer sure what to think about much of anything, now. XD These people that are doing scummy things aren't scum.... XD

 

I guess I need to reread. I will say that even though I agree that Kae's reasoning isn't exactly my cup of herbal tea, I am as certain as can be that she's the doctor like she says she is. I will probably be okay with a Ledinna lynch, because of things people have pointed out before (this is why I need a reread; I don't remember what those things were but I remember they made some sense), but again, reread first.

 

Hopefully hindsight will allow me to pick something up.

[mmeeshal]

Okay, I just finished a reread and here are the people I would happily vote for, today:

 

1. Wombat

2. Mawth

3. Ishy

 

I haven't quoted any posts for you guys, though I can, but here are brief explanations of why they're on my lists:

 

Wombat--crap reasoning at first on voting Red, plus he's been siding with me (never said I was scummy at all and has been agreeing with my reasoning for voting Red, and she was Town) and carefully casting suspicion on people I now know are/were Town.

 

Mawth--he's been on a lot of people's suspect lists as number 2 or number 3, but the only people I've seen actually go for him aren't coming across as scum to me. I believe he's been on Wombat's list. I think he's been trying to fly under the radar with very little contribution and has been playing it safe by not really going after anyone--everyone he says might be scummy, he also says they might not be.

 

Ishy--this one's mostly just ping; the alignments we know now haven't really convinced me either way on Ishy.

 

Anyway, vote Wombat.

[Sakaea]

I can go with that. Womby is one of my other suspects anyway. Unvote, Vote Wombat

 

However, I still think Ledinna is a good possibility for scum, as well.

[WWWwombat]

Ok, here's my theory.

 

1. Wombat

2. Amadine

3. Wayward Fool

4. Ishmael

5. Blackhoof, Left Fielder, vanilla town, Modkilled Day 2

6. Meesh

7. Mr. Soy Boyo, First Baseman, vanilla town, Lynched Day 1

8. BG

9. Mawthtex

10. TinaHel, Catcher, vanilla town, NK’d Night 1

11. Red, Third Baseman, vanilla town, NK’d Night 2

12. Ledinna

13. Sakaea, Doctor

 

I would like to see a Ledinna lynch today, because if you look at the townie deaths we've had, and assuming the scum are randomly scattered in this list, I think we have a very good chance of hitting scum with Ledinna. What do you all think?

 

Vote Ledinna

 

That is ridiculous. Random does not mean even scattering. The scum could very well be bunched. It's random.

 

@Nol - Seems like Dizzy would have made a very poor baseball player based upon your description. just sayin.

 

 

 

That's a bit crap on reasoning Kae, though statistically viable.

 

What do you mean by statistically viable?

[WWWwombat]

1. Wombat - Town

2. Leyrann (Replaced by) Amadine - Leyrann started off with a scumtell later started to act more town. Ama has made good points so far and I have a town read on her

3. Song (Replaced by) Wayward_Fool - No idea

4. Ishmael Forsaken - Mixed read

6. Meeshal - Town read. Wrong about me though

8. bgrishinko - The "statistically viable" thing pinged big time. He has been playing pretty safe so far. Gonna keep an eye on him.

9. Mawthtex - Has been pretty scummy all game. Put him on the back burner when Sakaea jumped out as front-runners but he is still suspect imo.

12. Krakalakachkn (Replaced by) Ledinna Sedai - No read

13. Sakaea - I would be voting her if she weren't uncountered doc. I have disagreed with almost everything she has posted. Guess we're just not on the same page.

 

Thinking BG or Maw right now but will wait a little longer to vote.

[bgrishinko]

Each game is different, all combos of Scum placement are possible. However, looking at typical trends, they are more commonly spread out on average, therefore it is statistically viable. Or in other words, a possibility. Still crap reasoning for a vote with nothing to back it up, as I said.

[Wayward_fool]

I came here the moment I heard about well endowed chests being flashed about. *nods*

 

So... now... I'm ill. IRL. And at home kinda blah. So re reading before I vote.

[Nolder]

Votecount

Wombat - Mmeeshal, Sakaea (2)

 

The deadline is Monday November 14th at 8:30AM PST.

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[WWWwombat]

Each game is different, all combos of Scum placement are possible. However, looking at typical trends, they are more commonly spread out on average, therefore it is statistically viable. Or in other words, a possibility. Still crap reasoning for a vote with nothing to back it up, as I said.

 

Not buying the statistical argument. It seems to me like you were trying to use that phrase to hedge a bit just in case no one agreed that it was bad reasoning.

[Ledinna Sedai]

1. Wombat - First I got a little townish feeling from him but now as there are so many things speaking against him, I'd rather think him as scum,

2. Leyrann -> Amadine - Ley was scummish for me but that may just be his style to play. Ama has been rather townish but it can just mean she's really good in this. So no ideas about this yet.

3. Song -> Wayward_Fool - There has been so little of those both that I can't say anything yet.

4. Ishmael Forsaken - Maybe he is scum, I don't know but if he was, then he possibly could hide it well.

6. Meesh - I thought town in the beginning but now I'm thinking it over. She's definetly not the highest of my suspicion list but yeah, I'm thinking it over.

8. bgrishinko - I have to admit that womby was right about BG playing safe. Not sure about him, though.

9. Mawthtex - Rather scummy, but when I think of how many of those I thought were scum, ended up being town, I have no idea anymore. But he still seems scummy to me.

12. Krakalakachkn -> Me - Well, town (as like anyone would believe it just by saying this...) -.-

13. Sakaea - I think I need more evidence now. I haven't played with her before this so I don't know what is just her playing style and what is her possible role. But she isn't totally unsuspected.

 

And about the statistic conversation, I think I have to agree with BG in this one.

 

 

 

 

 

[Netbattler11]

Computers are impossible of completely random spreads. Although random.org is rather good at them. So i guess its possible either way, but in no way is it sound enough reasoning to base a lynch off of.

 

Sakaea kind of pings me, considering it was a very convenient time indeed to claim doc, but its been uncountered so far so i guess i'll let it slide.

 

i get kind of a scummy feel off of wom, but i can't really place it atm. try and re-read later and see whats bothering me about him.

 

wayward fool i would really like to hear more from. He did say he was going to chime in soon, so i'll give him a chance to do that and then maybe pressure vote him.

[bgrishinko]

Each game is different, all combos of Scum placement are possible. However, looking at typical trends, they are more commonly spread out on average, therefore it is statistically viable. Or in other words, a possibility. Still crap reasoning for a vote with nothing to back it up, as I said.

 

Not buying the statistical argument. It seems to me like you were trying to use that phrase to hedge a bit just in case no one agreed that it was bad reasoning.

 

I know I've seen this conversation pop up in a previous games I've been in with all the math and whatnot to prove the point, so I'm not going to get into it except to say this: To say that it is not statistically viable is flat out untrue and I can't ignore that. If you are more interested it the odds, read the irrelevant stats at the end of this post.

 

Sorta like Poker this is mainly a game of deciet for scum and intuition for everyone, with a little bit of luck. And any good Poker player knows you can't ignore the statistics, but they don't make you an effective player.

 

So like I said. It is crap reasoning to vote someone, but the chances are statistically viable. i.e. If you have nowhere else to look/no leads, it is a decent place to start your search.

 

 

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

<mathmatical rant>

 

(WARNING: IRRELEVANT STATS! FEEL FREE TO IGNORE ... I gotta do this cause it bugs me when people ignore laws of mathmatics/physics/etc. This is all hypothetical and (for the most part) aside from the game.

 

It is basically like a coin flip. 50/50 chance a mafia player will be assigned a number in the first half of the list. Independently, each mafia player has a 50/50 chance of being on one side or the other. But that ignores correlation. Rounding the number of players to 12 for ease of example (cut Soy out of the list) you have 12 players and 3-4 scum. We'll go with 4.

 

A = 1st half of list, B = 2nd half of list.

Mafia player 1: 6/12 chance A, 6/12 chance B - A = 50%, B = 50%

Mafia player 2: 5/11 chance A, 6/11 chance B - A = 45%, B = 55%

Mafia player 3: 4/10 chance A, 6/10 chance B - A = 40%, B = 60%

Mafia player 4: 3/9 chance A, 6/9 chance B - A = 33%, B = 66%

 

So by the time you get to the 4th player, there is only a 1/3 chance of ending on the 1st half of the list. Not 50/50 as we'd assume. These numbers are best case scenario for putting people on the 1st half the list, mind you, and make A LOT of assumptions. This isn't even truly aggregating the stats, this is still all looking independent of each other. It also assumes all the mafia are assigned first, which is a big leap of faith right there. If you want to aggregate and randomize the order in which alignments are assigned, the math gets ugly, the odds of all ending on the same side go even lower, and you should take a Stats class to figure it all out. This is why we have Random.org. :)

 

The point is though that the chances of there being at least 1 scum in the 2nd half the list has a high probability and is, therefore, statistically viable.

 

</mathmatical rant>

[bgrishinko]

1. Wombat - First I got a little townish feeling from him but now as there are so many things speaking against him, I'd rather think him as scum,

2. Leyrann -> Amadine - Ley was scummish for me but that may just be his style to play. Ama has been rather townish but it can just mean she's really good in this. So no ideas about this yet.

3. Song -> Wayward_Fool - There has been so little of those both that I can't say anything yet.

4. Ishmael Forsaken - Maybe he is scum, I don't know but if he was, then he possibly could hide it well.

6. Meesh - I thought town in the beginning but now I'm thinking it over. She's definetly not the highest of my suspicion list but yeah, I'm thinking it over.

8. bgrishinko - I have to admit that womby was right about BG playing safe. Not sure about him, though.

9. Mawthtex - Rather scummy, but when I think of how many of those I thought were scum, ended up being town, I have no idea anymore. But he still seems scummy to me.

12. Krakalakachkn -> Me - Well, town (as like anyone would believe it just by saying this...) -.-

13. Sakaea - I think I need more evidence now. I haven't played with her before this so I don't know what is just her playing style and what is her possible role. But she isn't totally unsuspected.

 

And about the statistic conversation, I think I have to agree with BG in this one.

 

Soo.... in conclusion your main suspects are Wombat and Mawth... but in reality everyone. Also what are the "so many things speaking against" Wombat?

[Wayward_fool]

Ok Maw, and those of you who have never played with me. I live in Singapore. Effectively on the other side of the world. So means... HUGE ASS TIME DIFFERENCE. I'll chime in tomorrow. Coz it's 12.30am here. And I wanna sleep.

 

*nods* See ya in the later morning.

[Sakaea]

1. Wombat - First I got a little townish feeling from him but now as there are so many things speaking against him, I'd rather think him as scum,

2. Leyrann -> Amadine - Ley was scummish for me but that may just be his style to play. Ama has been rather townish but it can just mean she's really good in this. So no ideas about this yet.

3. Song -> Wayward_Fool - There has been so little of those both that I can't say anything yet.

4. Ishmael Forsaken - Maybe he is scum, I don't know but if he was, then he possibly could hide it well.

6. Meesh - I thought town in the beginning but now I'm thinking it over. She's definetly not the highest of my suspicion list but yeah, I'm thinking it over.

8. bgrishinko - I have to admit that womby was right about BG playing safe. Not sure about him, though.

9. Mawthtex - Rather scummy, but when I think of how many of those I thought were scum, ended up being town, I have no idea anymore. But he still seems scummy to me.

12. Krakalakachkn -> Me - Well, town (as like anyone would believe it just by saying this...) -.-

13. Sakaea - I think I need more evidence now. I haven't played with her before this so I don't know what is just her playing style and what is her possible role. But she isn't totally unsuspected.

 

And about the statistic conversation, I think I have to agree with BG in this one.

 

 

Bolding mine. Did you miss that I'm the doctor? *is confused*

[mmeeshal]

I'm willing to let Wombat slide for the time being because I personally feel there's more everyone can agree on for Mawth. Also, Ledinna is coming off very scummy with her noncommittal "read" on everyone. Pretty much everyone is "I don't actually have any idea." Understandable at times, but if everyone was as afraid to commit to a suspicion as you are, Ledinna, we'd get absolutely nowhere in this game.

 

I think we could get good information from a Mawth lynch, actually, just because he's still not contributing much solid to the game and he's been on everyone's suspect list since Day 1. Flying under the radar much?

 

I'd like everyone to weigh in, though. We need to get some more discussion going. What does everyone think?

[bgrishinko]

Okay, on reflection the worst thing I've seen is still Maw's entusiastic joining of why we (or at least I) voted for Soy on Day 1.

 

My suspect list with reasons withheld for now:

Maw

Ishy

Amadine

Wombat

 

Vote Maw

[WWWwombat]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

<mathmatical rant>

 

(WARNING: IRRELEVANT STATS! FEEL FREE TO IGNORE ... I gotta do this cause it bugs me when people ignore laws of mathmatics/physics/etc. This is all hypothetical and (for the most part) aside from the game.

 

It is basically like a coin flip. 50/50 chance a mafia player will be assigned a number in the first half of the list. Independently, each mafia player has a 50/50 chance of being on one side or the other. But that ignores correlation. Rounding the number of players to 12 for ease of example (cut Soy out of the list) you have 12 players and 3-4 scum. We'll go with 4.

 

A = 1st half of list, B = 2nd half of list.

Mafia player 1: 6/12 chance A, 6/12 chance B - A = 50%, B = 50%

Mafia player 2: 5/11 chance A, 6/11 chance B - A = 45%, B = 55%

Mafia player 3: 4/10 chance A, 6/10 chance B - A = 40%, B = 60%

Mafia player 4: 3/9 chance A, 6/9 chance B - A = 33%, B = 66%

 

So by the time you get to the 4th player, there is only a 1/3 chance of ending on the 1st half of the list. Not 50/50 as we'd assume. These numbers are best case scenario for putting people on the 1st half the list, mind you, and make A LOT of assumptions. This isn't even truly aggregating the stats, this is still all looking independent of each other. It also assumes all the mafia are assigned first, which is a big leap of faith right there. If you want to aggregate and randomize the order in which alignments are assigned, the math gets ugly, the odds of all ending on the same side go even lower, and you should take a Stats class to figure it all out. This is why we have Random.org. :)

 

The point is though that the chances of there being at least 1 scum in the 2nd half the list has a high probability and is, therefore, statistically viable.

 

</mathmatical rant>

 

I'm a math major. I don't ignore the laws of math or physics. I also don't accept claims without evidence. Scum being spread out and scum being near equal on both halves of the list are not equivalent. Scum could be bunched up both sides of the border.

 

 

 

Anyway, just for kicks, let's say we have a game of 12 players and 3 of them are scum, the rest being town. What is the probability that I pick 6 town players in a row? Well there are 12 choose 6 ways of picking the players, and 9 choose 6 ways of picking all town on 6 tries, so the probability of picking 6 town marbles in a row is

 

(9!/(6!*3!))/(12!/(6!*6!)) = 84/924 = 1/11

 

(which should equal the probability you get by multiplying individual probabilities)

 

so 1 out of every 11 games should have no scum on a given half of the list. That makes having no scum on a given half of the list unlikely but not extraordinary.

 

 

 

But like I said, that is not equivalent to saying that the scum will be spread out.

[bgrishinko]

Well, okay then. So it is statistically more viable, yes? Never said scum need to be spread out.

[Sakaea]

I'm good with Maw, Ledinna, or Wombat. All three have pinged me. Womby usually pings me tho. Ledinna is too non-commital about anything right now, and appears to be skimming and missed the fact that I'm the doc, which makes me suspect her. Maw, not sure about him.

 

Maw, anything to contribute?

[Sakaea]

BG, Womby, you're making my brain hurt with teh maths. x_x

[WWWwombat]

Well, okay then. So it is statistically more viable, yes? Never said scum need to be spread out.

 

I don't know. I never got how the Monty Hall problem worked so maybe this is a bad one for me to take on.