[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[Nolder]

 

 

 

 

Yeah I can go with not lynching Celeste.

 

Just feels too easy.

Are you saying she's TWTBAW?

 

 

Oh she can be a wolf. She didn't scream townie today. But just feels less likely than not being one.

 

She is difficult to solve and I want to give her more time and a flip to see what she can do with that.

 

I'm sorry I'm not understanding.

 

When you say it "feels too easy" what did you mean exactly?

You're saying she's difficult to solve so you can't mean easy in reference to figuring her out but I can't imagine what else you're referring to.

 

 

Any villager in that situation is a sitting duck day one lynch because:

 

1) Nothing indicating villager

2) Several people agree she's not indicating villager either strongly or at all.

3) Wolves are fine lynching someone who several people agree probably not strongly indicating villager

 

I can't read her, at all. I can't see what's villagery about her. I can't tell what work she's done. She's struggling hard.

 

That's the only thing I can see about Celeste is that she's struggling. So if she's a wolf, I am not anticipating a sudden dazzling display of elite wolfing that makes sure she never gets lynched.

 

She isn't going to suddenly look really townie to everyone in the group, so if this is how she plays all game, she's going to be a lynch or a vig shot or a scan or... something.

 

If she's a wolf I have a lot of confidence this group will make the correct decision on that soon. I don't believe we have enough data to make an intelligent decision NOW.

 

But I don't have enough data to make an intelligent diagnosis. So I'm taking a tissue culture and I'm putting it in the lab and I'm waiting to see if little werewolf spores develop in the petri dish before I hang her for the crime of being unsure of how to village on day one.

 

That's my leap of faith decision.

 

Whereas I don't get a struggling townie vibe from Turin at all. What I see from Turin is someone who has chosen something really arbitrary to push as "scummy" on someone I feel is a villager, and I'm not sensing Turin has trouble villaging. But this isn't recognizeable villaging to me.

 

Ok so let me rephrase.

 

You think if she's a wolf she's an obvious wolf and it will only get worse over time.

You'd rather hunt the wolves that are still under cover than take the easy lynch.

 

It makes sense but I think I disagree with it strategically.

[Turin Turambar]

Hello. I had an unexpected issue come up that took me away for the last 3.5-4.0 hours and only made it to page 25.

 

At that point I have been noticing something that looks weird to me. I may have conf bias but it seems to me that there are unusual interactions among Shad, Pizza, Alanna and Wish surrounding Celeste. 

 

Shad is looking to link Celeste and Wish. He seems to be looking to clear Wish with a Celeste town flip. look above at Alanna's post. He states Celeste is probably town. Then says he thinks Wish is town and won't lynch her today. How about Celeste?

Wish seems to be White Knighting Celeste.  I think it was way too early for her to come out with that  "Do you mean your vote on Celeste? It's one vote, nothing dangerous. But you had best take your vote off of her, because she's town. :P" thinking possible TMI.

Pizza says she is struggling but can't determine if it means she is town or mafia. It feels like a setup for tomorrow's lynch. Or maybe today's when he finds out he can't get me lynched.

Alanna just has her deep in her PoE. I think there was something else about it with her but I  can't remember at present. give me a few to see if I can jog my memory.

 

 

 

 

TBH tho, there were some things about Celeste that bothered me. Primarily the posts that contained what I would call AtE even tho she denied it. But the way that a lot of people that I have doubts on are looking to lynch her while saying she is likely town makes me nervous. 

[Askthepizzaguy]

You think if she's a wolf she's an obvious wolf and it will only get worse over time.

You'd rather hunt the wolves that are still under cover than take the easy lynch.

 

It makes sense but I think I disagree with it strategically.

 

More specifically, I think she is more likely to be a mislynch than a wolf at the present time, not that she is especially villagery. And that she should get resolved at some point, but when we have more data on her, thus reducing the odds that it is a mislynch.

 

If she's a villager I don't want to give the wolves a freebie pass to skate through day one hounding someone who can't defend herself.

 

If she's a wolf, I want people to continue to pay attention to her, resolve her at some point, don't forget about her. Until she starts to shine like a villagery beacon, she should be in the POE.

 

I just think it's not the best move to make her first in the POE.

 

And if she's a wolf, I understand how this looks. I will be dead before I get mislynched over this if she is a wolf.

[Nolder]

Ok I'm caught up but I'm going to go back and reread the last 15 pages more thoroughly for my notes in a sec.

While I'm present does anyone have any questions or comments for me?

[Songstress]

Ten thousand years ago, in Kalimdor...

 

The city of Suramar was asleep.  Sunrise was near, and the four guards standing at the corners of the cage were losing the edge of alertness they'd had earlier in the evening.  It was the perfect time to carry out Malfurion's plan.

 

"I'll take care of the sentries," whispered Illidan.  

 

Malfurion Stormrage turned sharply to his twin. "No, I have them."  He wanted to ensure they were not harmed, and Illidan's sorcery was sure to be less gentle than his own druidic magic.  Malfurion opened himself to nature and called on the wind to aid him.  A gentle, cooling breeze began to caress the guards with soft touches.  The sweet, soporific scent of flowers from the gardens surrounding the city carried on the wind.  The soft call of a night bird became a lullaby of sorts, and soon all four guards had drifted into a trance.

 

As had the prisoner in the cage.  Tyrande Whisperwind rushed to the bars past the unseeing eyes of the sentries, calling quietly to the green-skinned creature within. "Broxigar!"

 

"Touch his arm," Malfurion suggested. "Gently, we don't want him to cry out too loudly in alarm and disrupt the spell."

 

The creature in the cage radiated strength and restrained violence, but Tyrande showed not a trace of fear.  She had spoken at some length with the being who called himself an "orc", and he had shown her nothing but respect and the sort of gentleness that belied the label of "beast" the other Night Elves had given him.  She feared for what would happen when Lord Ravencrest and his men returned to take Brox to Black Rook Hold for... questioning.

 

Malfurion's motive for this rescue was somewhat more complex.  He had been beset by troubling dreams of late, and his teacher Cenarius had guided him to the Emerald Dream to help him find the truth behind his worries.  In the Dream, he had found more trouble - a vision of Zin-Azshari, the Well of Eternity churning at its feet with dangerous abandon.  He had come away with the certainty that the Highborne, and Queen Azshara herself, were dabbling in reckless sorcery that posed an extreme threat to the Night Elves, perhaps the world itself.

 

The beloved Queen Azshara risking the lives of her people?  Despite his faith in the truth of the vision, Malfurion had been driven to seek out his oldest friend, the one who brought peace to his troubled mind, to discuss his concerns.  Tyrande had brought him her own concerns, and introduced him to the orc.  The orc's story of being swallowed by what could only be a work of dark magic resonated within him.  He could not shake the sense that whatever had brought the orc to their world, and the dangerous sorcery being toyed with by the Highborne, had some correlation.

 

So he was here, perpetrating a jail break.  The orc's eyes opened and widened at Tyrande's touch, but the shout of alarm that was building did not come.  He recognized the Night Elf priestess, and trusted she would do him no harm.

 

The next part was Illidan's to perform.  The sorcerer had injured Broxigar earlier in his overzealous concern for Tyrande's safety, but this time he limited his destructive spells to the iron bars of the cage, and the manacles that held him.  Both opened with a mere touch from Malfurion.

 

"I will go with you," Tyrande declared, but Malfurion refused her offer.  Tyrande had been publicly seen healing the orc's wounds and giving him Elune's blessing.  She would be the first suspect in his escape, so she must be available when the guards sought for her.  Illidan would stay with her, while Malfurion would take the escaped prisoner and find a safe place to hide.

 

The plan would work, he thought.  It had to work. Yet they were still hurrying through the streets of Suramar when Malfurion heard the sounds of the now-awakened sentries raising the alarm.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pralaya, for example, essentially AWOL and buried under mountains of posts.

 

He's got nothing to use in his own defense and is probably a POE due to a bunch of others being villagers.

 

But he's specifically got nothing to defend himself with and is an easy target if some villagers decide to lynch him and he's a villager, because no reasonable defense will likely be offered before D1 ends unless he's very impressive with the time remaining, and low posting and doing nothing is a viable excuse to lynch someone.

 

I don't want to make it that easy. If the wolves want to lynch someone other than themselves, they need to make a case on a non-sitting-duck target. Someone that can put up a fight, make a defense, has reasons why they are a villager.

 

I'll keep Pralaya and Celeste near the bottom of my POE and if they have to be resolved then they must. But I hate giving wolves EZ pass to D2.

[Nolder]

Also, iirc...

 

CORY! HEY! HEY CORY!

 

Look at this.

I am voting Pral.

He's made one post since the game started.

I put the focus on the inactive...and what did people do?

Who's posted since I put that vote down?

Enough people to hammer I think.

But no one cares, so why do I care?

 

If you're confused right now then I'm misremembering who was giving me a hard time about how I used to push inactives and now I don't really.

I thought it was you but I don't remember anymore. Well whoever it was...HEY LOOK.

INACTIVE! INACTIVE! WE'VE GOT A LURKER HERE! See, no one cares.

[Nolder]

[unvote]

 

It's useless anyway. 

Now back to some actual work.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ok I'm caught up but I'm going to go back and reread the last 15 pages more thoroughly for my notes in a sec.

While I'm present does anyone have any questions or comments for me?

 

People have been poo-pooing your efforts so far. You're behaving in an untraditional manner.

 

Will you have some more standard stuff for us before day ends?

[Nolder]

Pralaya, for example, essentially AWOL and buried under mountains of posts.

 

He's got nothing to use in his own defense and is probably a POE due to a bunch of others being villagers.

 

But he's specifically got nothing to defend himself with and is an easy target if some villagers decide to lynch him and he's a villager, because no reasonable defense will likely be offered before D1 ends unless he's very impressive with the time remaining, and low posting and doing nothing is a viable excuse to lynch someone.

 

I don't want to make it that easy. If the wolves want to lynch someone other than themselves, they need to make a case on a non-sitting-duck target. Someone that can put up a fight, make a defense, has reasons why they are a villager.

 

I'll keep Pralaya and Celeste near the bottom of my POE and if they have to be resolved then they must. But I hate giving wolves EZ pass to D2.

Case in point.

[Turin Turambar]

 

Zander is now firmly town for me. That was some proper work on the Wish ISO. If everyone is still convinced Shad is not a candidate for today then I would be most willing to switch to Wish.

Shad has been in my town pile so I won't be voting him. I'm not sold on you however and I'm more willing to follow my strong town read, Pizza, onto you. Why shouldn't you be the lynch today?

 

I also like what Pizza said about your list right after this post of yours.

 

I'm TOWN. 

 

I'm also very curious about how so many people are so  loathe to vote in this game. Waiting for other people to vote first? or waiting for DL to get close so that there will be less time to move votes. 

 

Also, My effort level is always based upon my available time. I thought I had more this week. Hasn't worked out that way. 

 

 

Pizza is >rand to be mafia IMO but no one wants to hear that right now. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bottom line is that I'm probably not getting lynched today. I may well be murdered tonight tho.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Without even clicking the link...

 

"Nice hat. What are you trying to look like, a secret agent?"

[Nolder]

 

Ok I'm caught up but I'm going to go back and reread the last 15 pages more thoroughly for my notes in a sec.

While I'm present does anyone have any questions or comments for me?

 

People have been poo-pooing your efforts so far. You're behaving in an untraditional manner.

 

Will you have some more standard stuff for us before day ends?

 

That's too bad. I feel like other than my extended absence (I was gone for maybe 16 hours solid?) I've been playing a good game so far.

I'm happy that I took the effort to reread the entire thread to take notes. I don't usually put that much effort into catching up usually I just skim.

I mean I understand that people can't SEE what I did but it should show that I know what's going on. You can tell when I'm lost in a game, see TUS for a perfect example.

 

If people think I'm behaving weird idc some of them are wolves anyway trying to cast doubt.

Don't expect anything but the same because this is how I'm playing this game.

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Shad (1): Turin
Turin (1): Askthepizzaguy
Wish (1): Zander
 
Not voting (10): Shad, Kaylee, Csarmi, Laine, Wish, Pral, Cass, Celeste, Lenlo, Nolder

----------

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
DAY ONE WILL END AT 10:00 PM MST (MIDNIGHT EASTERN) ON WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 6.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160106T22&p0=197&msg=End+of+Day+One&font=cursive&csz=1

[alannalynn]

#805 +1 Pizza

#816 I want to give Nolder more of a lean but I need more.
 

Erm, closer?

If Wish is town I think her read on Celeste should be trusted.
If Wish is scum I think she's way more likely to be buddying town than defending a scum mate, based on Wish's behavior and the situation surrounding Celeste.
So I think Celeste is probably town.

I think Wish is town independently. She's being towny imo.

Agreed. There's only two ways this can go wrong though.
    A. Wish doesn't read Celeste nearly as well as she believes or Celeste has adapted her meta and Wish is wrong
    B. They're both wolves and playing us for precisely this purpose.

At the same time, I'm okay trusting Wish at the moment and I'm willing to give Celeste more time to show she's town as well, so we'll see where that leads. I believe a Wish town OR mafia flip would support Celeste being town; a Celeste town flip would lead me to believe Wish is town; but a Celeste mafia flip would make me worry a little about Wish but wouldn't be a sure lynch.
 

1. Im not excited about the post...I was excited for Alanna.....lolololololol

Zander
 

 

Celeste is probably town.
 
Either Wish is town who reads her well and we should take her opinion pretty seriously here, or Wish is scum buddying the hell out of a town.  Scum!Wish defending scum!Celeste to the extent that she has thus far would be pretty counterproductive.  It banks on no one ISOing previous games to verify her statements.  It banks on someone like me stepping in and putting on the breaks, because a generic town lynches Wish as soon as Celeste flips scum, and Celeste is certainly on the table today.
 
I think Wish is town.  I certainly wouldn't lynch her today.

 
 
I dont know if they are W/W but I wont say they CANT be,  And she's more then likely gonna be who Im  lynching today.

 

I'm not sure Wish is the way to go today, Zander. And yes I read your ISO.
 

I'm having trouble reading Nomi.
I know he's posted a lot but none of it is saying town or scum to me.
Anything in particular making you think he's town?
 
Lenlo and Alanna tied for townleader imho.
 
Scummiest is harder to say since I have several nulls I'm trying to figure out.
I think I'd like to work on that a bit more before naming names.

This is... odd. You haven't even /interacted/ with me this game. Talk to me Nolder!
 

wish-tree
 
Go read TUS and Ragnarok and tell me I'm wrong.  Remember that she was hunting for Loki as scum in Ragnarok.

Noting.
 

/snip/
TL-DR
 
 
The whole i hate gut reads but thats all ill use for reasoning.
Numerous, Numerous contradictions
Numerous excuses
Very awkward back and forth with Penny that feels like pocketing
Double standards to "fit" her reads
Saying oh well I just changed my style from last game
Her "pick a name from a hat" stance on the Len/Shad back and forth
Bringing up the note taking thing distraction from the game
Flimsy reads without backing them up
TMI type/ Over confident type comments.
The feigned wtf repsones about me mixing up their names
 
 Need I go on....I dont think so
 
[v] Lenny/Wish-Tree [/v]

 
 

[v]Pral[/v]
 
Getting close to 50 pages Pral.
Keep up or die.

Comments on people that are actually playing the game? I know you dislike inactives but what about everyone else playing? Thoughts?

#881 Shad notes Cass' intro posts. Surprise at actually randing town? Although I'd be pretty excited if I got to share a thread with Cory for mentoring too :wink:

stop top of 46

[Turin Turambar]

"And YES I put myself at the top becasue of weird reasons where the list feels incomplete..."

 

Yeah, and because if you want to count the POE, there's another player on the list. The math isn't correct unless you add yourself.

 

In turbos on 2+2, 6 vanillas, 1 seer, 2 wolves, All the villagers have to do is find 4 other villagers and themselves.

 

You find 4 villagers and there's enough mislynches to spare, assuming you don't lynch yourself, to POE out the remainders.

 

9 d1, 7 d2, 5 d3, 3 d4. Is 4 lynches to work with.

 

Yourself and X number of villagers this game solves the game in the same way. Given how people are posting and the progress we're making on that front, I'm more concerned about finding the townie group than the scums.

 

But I did find a scum I think. I don't need to find them all day one. Just one is fine.

 

Then I gotta find another one on day two. As if I'll live that long. :P

Loss of confidence? I think you know I'm not mafia. 

 

 

I'm out of time soon so if anyone really wants to ask anything I can answer quickly, go ahead.

[Nolder]

Hello. I had an unexpected issue come up that took me away for the last 3.5-4.0 hours and only made it to page 25.

 

At that point I have been noticing something that looks weird to me. I may have conf bias but it seems to me that there are unusual interactions among Shad, Pizza, Alanna and Wish surrounding Celeste. 

 

Shad is looking to link Celeste and Wish. He seems to be looking to clear Wish with a Celeste town flip. look above at Alanna's post. He states Celeste is probably town. Then says he thinks Wish is town and won't lynch her today. How about Celeste?

Wish seems to be White Knighting Celeste.  I think it was way too early for her to come out with that  "Do you mean your vote on Celeste? It's one vote, nothing dangerous. But you had best take your vote off of her, because she's town. :P" thinking possible TMI.

Pizza says she is struggling but can't determine if it means she is town or mafia. It feels like a setup for tomorrow's lynch. Or maybe today's when he finds out he can't get me lynched.

Alanna just has her deep in her PoE. I think there was something else about it with her but I  can't remember at present. give me a few to see if I can jog my memory.

 

 

 

 

TBH tho, there were some things about Celeste that bothered me. Primarily the posts that contained what I would call AtE even tho she denied it. But the way that a lot of people that I have doubts on are looking to lynch her while saying she is likely town makes me nervous. 

Regarding Wish white knighting Celeste yes it is odd and I don't understand it but IIRC they do this to one extent or another most games they play together.

They try to link up their fates if you understand me. I don't know why they do it but that's what I've noticed the few games I've played with them.

So while it's weird it's not unusual for them.

 

The rest of that is fair points though.

[alannalynn]

Hello. I had an unexpected issue come up that took me away for the last 3.5-4.0 hours and only made it to page 25.

 

At that point I have been noticing something that looks weird to me. I may have conf bias but it seems to me that there are unusual interactions among Shad, Pizza, Alanna and Wish surrounding Celeste. 

 

Shad is looking to link Celeste and Wish. He seems to be looking to clear Wish with a Celeste town flip. look above at Alanna's post. He states Celeste is probably town. Then says he thinks Wish is town and won't lynch her today. How about Celeste?

Wish seems to be White Knighting Celeste.  I think it was way too early for her to come out with that  "Do you mean your vote on Celeste? It's one vote, nothing dangerous. But you had best take your vote off of her, because she's town. :P" thinking possible TMI.

Pizza says she is struggling but can't determine if it means she is town or mafia. It feels like a setup for tomorrow's lynch. Or maybe today's when he finds out he can't get me lynched.

Alanna just has her deep in her PoE. I think there was something else about it with her but I  can't remember at present. give me a few to see if I can jog my memory.

 

TBH tho, there were some things about Celeste that bothered me. Primarily the posts that contained what I would call AtE even tho she denied it. But the way that a lot of people that I have doubts on are looking to lynch her while saying she is likely town makes me nervous. 

Actually, I'm siding with Shad wrt Wish/Celeste. I hate this post.

 

I'm also very curious about how so many people are so  loathe to vote in this game.

[v]Turin[/v]

[alannalynn]

Nolder, they often play as a hydra, so that's probably why they link up even outside of sharing a slot. I'm okay trusting Wish, who I'm town reading, about Celeste for the moment. And if Wish is scum, Celeste still likely town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think you failed to give any kind of a defense.

[Nolder]

 

I'm having trouble reading Nomi.

I know he's posted a lot but none of it is saying town or scum to me.

Anything in particular making you think he's town?

 

Lenlo and Alanna tied for townleader imho.

 

Scummiest is harder to say since I have several nulls I'm trying to figure out.

I think I'd like to work on that a bit more before naming names.

This is... odd. You haven't even /interacted/ with me this game. Talk to me Nolder!

 

You answered my question.

It wasn't real time interaction but hey you've been busy.

That's not on me. :P

 

Also eventually you'll catch up to a post which explains how the points work and why you're tied.

It's not necessary to interact. I see you making good posts and you get points.

 

 

[v]Pral[/v]

 

Getting close to 50 pages Pral.

Keep up or die.

Comments on people that are actually playing the game? I know you dislike inactives but what about everyone else playing? Thoughts?

 

Soon. We have a deadline now so my hand is forced but I'm still on the hunt.

Just a little bit longer...

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

You still have over a day, TT.

 

You got something better, we'll need to see it before 36 hours are up.

 

Last minute stuff I won't buy, because you had the better part of 2 days. So it has to be before deadline.

[Nolder]

When we hit page 55 I'm going to take a quick break from real time and reread a bit.

Shouldn't take too long.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm real time right now, waiting on Laine. I want to do that before I look at Matrix again since she's here.

 

Then I'll check out Csarmi's meta. Though I have to say, I like the fact that he gave me five links on his own instead of just the requested 2.

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Shad (1): Turin
Turin (2): Askthepizzaguy, Laine
Wish (1): Zander
 
Not voting (9): Shad, Kaylee, Csarmi, Wish, Pral, Cass, Celeste, Lenlo, Nolder

----------

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
DAY ONE WILL END AT 10:00 PM MST (MIDNIGHT EASTERN) ON WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 6.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160106T22&p0=197&msg=End+of+Day+One&font=cursive&csz=1