[Advanced] Nightmare Before Christmas - Town Wins!

[Askthepizzaguy]

2)
 
Your fifth vote did nothing to make John Snow feel any kind of pressure, and it doesn't make him any more dead than the fourth vote, had that vote stood. So why did you wait until the outcome of the round was decided, to decide the outcome of the round? That strikes me as the mindset of a person who wants to avoid responsibility.
 
So you're right there at deadline, you're there after deadline, and you know the flip is coming. Well...
 
3)
 
Did you stick around and try to give one last attempt at finding scum, just in case you were murdered night one? Did you do so after you realized your vote was wrong? Were you part of the overnight discussion at all? You were there. After the lynch happened, did you do anything to rectify your mistake by going, "shoot, dead townie. Well, tomorrow, I'd take a good hard look at X."
 
4)
 
Did you make a serious attempt to find scum today? Maybe you're not a nighttime discuss-y kind of player. Well, how about during daytime?

[Askthepizzaguy]

5)
 
Here's one that isn't "fair" because you can't really argue the point. But after I laid out my case against you, Zander agreed and said that he had similar thoughts about you. Then he died. There weren't many people who were going after you specifically. Most people are giving you passes. Why does the mafia remove one of only a very few number of voters willing to mislynch you? The only explanation I can think of is that either you are guilty or taborline is, or both.

[Askthepizzaguy]

6)
 
Let's talk about your town read on me.
 
I'm pretty much universally town read this game, and with the exception of AndreJ, even the folks I'm accusing think I'm town. Nolder, NotBob, you. Strange.
 
So looking into those town reads, you see a more nuanced picture. You've got Shad who thinks I'm pretty townie but won't say that I should never be lynched this game, and also has expressed paranoia about me. You've got Dice who leans town but says I have deep wolf prospects.
 
You have me as mild town-
 

 

@Pizza - mild town at the moment (waiting on reread) and I'll be around later if you want to talk

 

-at the moment, pending a re-read.
 
Your hedge is a different kind of hedge. Some people are paranoid about me but lean town. You lean town but you are saying that the lean could be temporary, and that it can change if you go back and re-read me. That sticks out as unusual to me.
 
Why? Hypocrisy-wolf says pizza, you've done that kind of lean. Why's it so bad?
 
I've done that kind of lean, but I've done it with folks who are pretty closed with their feelings and thoughts and leans, or aren't here. Having that kind of lean on an open player who expresses literally all their leans and thoughts and intentions and has a vote pattern, doesn't strike me as legitimate.
 
You're barely here, and I am trying to kill you, and the whole thread is town-reading me. If you're town, I'm painting you so, so, so hard as scum that it should be shaking your town read of me. You should have reasons and qualifiers for your not taking a stronger stand on me, and they aren't in existence.
 
My behavior isn't seemingly what's making you hedge your bet. Nothing appears to be making you hedge your bet, in fact. Yet you still do so, by giving me that temporary and mild town lean, pending a re-read.
 
Taborline is still not behaving like a townie and I'm not pushing her. What if Taborline is my fellow wolf? Why are you not even a little bit suspicious of me?
 
If you're not sure, and you're a townie, surely thoughts like these, similar to the thoughts you had about Taborline and John Snow, should have come up when giving your opinion on me. Why isn't your opinion on me very detailed when I asked you about it?
 

Right now I'm pretty meh about both Snow and Tabor, I don't think skimming Nolder ISO is fair to him, there's a fair bit I'm missing.

The two concerns with Snow is the disconnect between his opening and actual posting - which could just be due to finals and recently more concerning is his reasons for voting Zander.

Tabor I'm pretty null on this game, but I ISO'd her in Diablo, there were a few none content posts for which she got voted, but she came back with a 'risky' reads list and interacted with people, this game she feels less involved.

I don't like Snow', Tabor and Nolder all being missing and don't know what to make of Tabor and Snow not voting to self pres

[Askthepizzaguy]

7)
 
Even someone who is basically absent, Taborline, you have a reason for your hedge. You give a reason to hedge on John Snow.
 
I'm going to call a mild and temporary town-read that means very little pending a re-read, a hedge. Because that's what it is, and we are both aware of this.
 
You've got zero reason to hedge on me, but you do anyway. A mild town read that you instantly distance yourself from by saying I gotta re-read you, is essentially the same thing as a null read. It's a push. It's a no-bet. You don't want to call me strongly townie and give reasons, and you don't want to call me scummy.
 
A townie should want to have a lean on me that they can back up. They should have feelings about me that they can express. Even if the feelings conflict, even if they're not sure. They then express that feeling of being not sure.
 
You might not be the most aggressive player in the world, but I sincerely doubt you are that disconnected from your own feelings and intuitions that you can't express a very detailed and in-depth instinct based read of me, which you hedge on.
 
I don't see any town motivation to avoid giving your thought process on me, how you see some posts you like and why, and why those lead to town feelings which you then dismiss because of other posts, or because you're scared or paranoid about me, as others have.
 
Your opinion on me is null, even though you say it's townie, and that shouldn't be possible from a townie at this stage of the game.
 
One of the things that is important about being an "open" player, and why it is pro-town, is to give my team a chance to read me correctly, cold, as soon as possible.
 
You can't have an impression about me so vague that you are hesitant to articulate it, and don't want to commit to by putting it on paper, so to speak. That's not possible from a townie who is trying to find fellow townies, or trying to find fellow wolves.
 
Even if you have conflicting thoughts about me, you should be able to give them. But rather than get more detailed in your opinion about me, as I continually give you more material to work with, your thoughts about me are becoming more sparse, and less detailed.

 

That's the wrong direction for them to be moving in.
 
 
 
All of the above paints you in a very bad light in my view.
 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Taborline, AndreJ, and BFG are my three scumbags presently.

[Askthepizzaguy]

fellow wolves should just be wolves there.

 

Proofreading, I don't do's it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

It should be noted now, that I'm not getting the sequence of events right regarding the voting at end of round yesterday.

 

For some reason in my mind I thought the fourth JS vote was Shad?

 

It's actually Lenlo. I think the unvote and the not-legal vote by Shad are creating false impressions of the sequence in my recollection of the events.

 

It doesn't make a substantial difference to my point, as there were 4 legal votes on John Snow at the time of BFG's movement. But yeah my memory is teh suck.

 

It's even possible that scum-BFG believed temporarily that the vote on Taborline was legal and that the vote was needed to spare Taborline's life. I don't know. Hadn't really occurred to me because of the error in my memory of those events.

[dicetosser1]

so u are now good with Nolder and NB?  what changed ure mind? was it things THEY did   or things concerning AJ BFG and Tab?

[Askthepizzaguy]

so u are now good with Nolder and NB?  what changed ure mind? was it things THEY did   or things concerning AJ BFG and Tab?

Nolder didn't really wiggle his own way out of my suspicions, if that's what you mean. I did soft-claim a result of innocent on him, because that's exactly who I needed to scan last night if I were the cop, which I am not. It's not really a large concern whether my result is believed. It's either seer cover or the easiest breadcrumb in the world to find, because I'm a wordy mofo.

 

NotBob is harder to explain.

 

I'll tell you this much about my read on NotBob- I didn't re-read him, and I didn't do any research, and I felt he was scummy last night, so whatever is moving him out of my top three had to have happened since night one ended. It's important.

 

I'm not sure about him, but I don't know if I can cold read him. His thought process is one I'm not really understanding. He's got me scummy a lot on day one and flips it up, I'm town today and not sure why.

 

I can't clear him but I think he's going to resolve mechanically this game. I don't think I need to cold read him correctly.

 

I don't think he should be scanned or shot by a vig right now. Those sorts of behaviors should be contained to the three candidates I mentioned.

 

How I want to deal with NotBob right now: I want him to exonerate himself or condemn himself, on his own merits, before final 3. I think he can do so.

 

I think Tabor and BFG are both needing to be resolved by lynch, scan, or vig. And since we have a probability of there being three wolves, my top three wolves should be lynched, scanned, or vigged. Any order.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Also sorry for that delayed response. I had a hell of a time trying to put my thoughts into appropriate wording on that one.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Do we have any volunteers for the scan?

 

I know if I'm a townie, I want to be scanned, a lot, tonight. Especially if the alternatives are to waste a lynch.

 

So, I'm accepting applicants for my next scan result.

[Nolder]

This post is too large for most people to try to read, and impossible to give quote-then-response to. So it's going to be several posts, numbered.

 

 

 

__________________________

 

23 hours have passed, and there have been four pages of discussion. These players are the reason why the thread has moved so little in my absence:

 

Thane: excused absence. There's really zero possibility he can have a meaningful read on the game, even if he read every single post up to this point. He would generally have to speed-read, and the essence of the moment is lost. You're not getting a feel for the timing of the posts, the tension of the moment. It really harms your read. This wouldn't be the end of the world, except:

 

Taborline: unexcused absence. There's no excuse for this level of nothingness. Wolf in anti-spew is the conclusion I have to draw here, because a townie should have checked in with any thoughts. Should have, would have I feel. That said, as I mentioned, I just went through several games in a row where townies just flat-out abandoned their duties. I just thought this website was better.

 

BFG checks in briefly, doesn't give a whole lot of content. Explains that she usually votes late in the round. So I want to talk about that.

 

I'd add Notbob to that list as well but to be fair to him he did say he'd be mostly absent this weekend ahead of time so we can take that with a grain of salt.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'll be around for a while to talk in real time right now.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I should cut people a break on absences, given the time of year. My apologies if I'm not giving people enough rope on that issue.

[alannalynn]

I just did a double take realizing it's literally 5 days until Christmas. Guess how much Christmas shopping I've done? Haha nada.

 

(fails at things)

 

(works too much)

 

(is sick and dying probably)

[Leelou]

Vote Count

 

Tab (3) - Lenlo, Dice, AJ

AJ (2) - NotBob, Shad

Lenlo (1) - Nol 

BFG (1) - Pizza

 

It is now day. With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. 

 

[Thane Vakarian]

So, i've spent the last few hours reading and rereading the thread.

Taborline, AndreJ, and BFG are my three scumbags presently.

This is silimar to the conclusion i got to, with a chance of Nolder or Shad being candidate too. To put it in a list:

 

Pizza
Dice
Lenlo

NotBob

 

Nolder
Shad

AJ

 

BFG
Taborline

 

 

 

[v]Taborline [/v]

 

I really don't understand how she was not lynched D1. From the chatter in the thread, it was clear that she'd be the lynch. But it didn't go through, and i'm looking at AJ and Shad for that.... hence they're on the suspect list.

 

I'm around a bit today.

 

 

[Leelou]

Vote Count
 
Tab (4) - Lenlo, Dice, AJ, Thane
AJ (2) - NotBob, Shad
Lenlo (1) - Nol 
BFG (1) - Pizza
 
It is now day. With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. 
 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Thane, if you're around for a bit, I will be.

 

Thanks for agreeing to continue the game while basically being handicapped due to not being able to access the site often.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am sitting and watching stuff with Sooh so if it takes me a while to respond, that's the raisin.

[Nolder]

 

Final D1 Vote Count

 

Snow (4) - Dice, AJ, Lenlo, BFG

Taborline (3) - Zander, NotBob, Nol

Nol (1) - Pizza

Zander (1) - Snow

Not Voting - Taborline, Shad, Thane

 

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.Deadline Wednesday 4 pm Pacific Time (GMT -8 hours)

 

Alright so let's make this simple, anyone voting Snow is suspect.

Anyone not voting is suspect.

 

That leaves us with a wide range of people: Dice, AJ, Lenlo, BFG, Taborline, Shad, Thane

 

I am skimming an ISO of each player, here's my thoughts.

 

Dice

 

 

Didn't see anything too notable until I got to his vote on Snow. In case you don't remember it was pretty bad. Something bugged him about his entrance to the thread so...let's lynch him. Ok well I know how that can be sometimes so let me go back and read Snow's entrance. Here it is. I don't see anything wrong with it or the next few posts following it so now that we know Snow is town I'd like to see Dice justify his choice and reasoning here a bit more. Particularly looking for WHY the entrance bothered you and what struck you as scummy about it.

 

Here's something interesting. When Snow joined the game his first vote was on Lenlo. After voting Snow he made a comment about thinking Lenlo is town. It's a small thing and not at all incriminating but mafia is about drawing connections. I was skimming so I may have missed it but is there any reason for Dice to think Lenlo is town at this point? Did he ever say why he had this read on him? It's possible it's scum buddy bias leaking out into his play. Or not, who knows. Something to consider in the future maybe.

 

Another interesting tidbit. Snow would have had a slight scum lean on Dice had others not been townreading him.

 

Some weird progression towards EOD. He was kind of grilling Taborline and very focused on her and then he said I was tomorrows (todays) autolynch. It's possible this was in response to something I said but since I'm only looking at Dice's posts out of context I can't really tell. A little while later he made a post saying he wouldn't lynch Tab today because it's "too obvious". Not sure what that's supposed to mean if the reason for her lynch is activity reasons. Dice can you clarify on that?

 

Re: lynching me, Dice did make this post asking me to explain myself. It didn't come off as threatening or accusatory but more of a "I want to be on your side but you need to give me a reason to be" kind of thing. At least that's how I felt about it at the time. I did find it kind of off putting that what he was mainly concerned about was why I was around after the deadline fell. Especially when he defended me earlier in the game regarding not posting in the game but posting elsewhere on the forum. I really don't know what to make of that.

 

And last thing he did was leave a vote on Shad. That's pretty confusing since it was supposed to be me or Tab who was "auto lynch" today.

Dice can you make a reads list so we know where you stand with everybody in the game?

 

 

 

AJ

 

 

Takes a position of Town on Lenlo pretty early.

 

Makes an excellent point re: Xander buddying as opposed to questioning as wolf. Possible Scum AJ would see town Xander as an early threat and good choice for night kill?

 

"I guess the best answer would be that if you don't think I'm a villager after a phase or two, and I'm still alive and not lynching scum then you should worry." 

 

AJ makes a point to note that he has my scum meta down and that he doesn't think that's what I'm doing. What I find notable about this is that I have gotten into long arguments now with at least 3 people. AJ can see that I don't really WANT to be in these arguments and that they're more frustrating for me than anything else. But he doesn't need to tell anyone else that. All he needs to say is that I'm engaging in these long form arguments on purpose and to anyone who really doesn't know my meta down to a T that's exactly what it would look like. His unwillingness to throw me under the bus despite my being an easy early mislynch speaks volumes imo.

 

It looks to me like his vote on Snow was based on Snow's strong approach at the start of the game and then weak follow through throughout the rest of D1.

 

Gives a reads list here. Lenlo and Dice are in his top town reads. Snow and Notbob at the bottom.

 

Asks Shad to help him lynch Snow. Shad never voted. His reasoning is that AJ was "sketching him out".

 

 

 

Lenlo

 

 

I don't want to beat a dead horse here but I will be going over the reasons I suspect Lenlo as being scum here. Let's start with the first thing I noted which is what I saw as fencesitting. "I can sort of see what your getting at with Nolder but before I do anything on the matter I want you to spell it out for me." The language of "I can sort of see" stands out to me as fencesitting.

 

Says early on Xander is "bugging" him. He gets into it with him and...then backs off because he apparently misread something?

 

This is more confusing than damning in my opinion but I'd like to note that he seemed to think it was my responsibility to comment on people (mainly Nomi) linking me to Notbob. Beyond saying "I'm not" I don't know what he was expecting of me and just found the whole thing really weird.

 

I asked him to give his thoughts on me/Nomi with regards to our discussion and he put me off for a bit because he was on the phone then he quoted me posts that contained his thoughts about Nomi's case on me before I'd entered the game and began interacting with Nomi. The whole thing seemed evasive to me.

 

Made a read list and had Snow as null. Interesting because he ends up voting Snow. The bottom two are myself and Xander. I find this weird as well because I thought he was cool with Xander after their scuffle earlier so I'm not sure why Xander ended up back on the bottom of his reads. It's also weird because either around this time or not too long after I think I came out with my suspicions about Xander so unless he thought we were w/w bussing each other it's all kind of a weird position for us all to be in you know what I mean?

 

So he switched at last minute from me to Snow where his other choice was Tab. I don't really fault his reasoning though. He said his town reads were voting Snow while his scum reads were voting Tab. I do kind of wish he had a better reason but...ehh...it's Day 1 what are you gonna do. At least he had some kind of reason right? That doesn't always happen.

 

Ok so at some point he switches back and forth between me and Tab a few times. Can't make up his mind which one of us he'd like to lynch more I guess. Or maybe he's trying to find the path of least resistance?

 

 

 

Ok let's start following this up.

 

BFG

 

 

First post of interest to me is a reads list. It's good that Xander is above null but she has Snow as a scumread.

Here she hedges a little bit on her town reads.

 

Noticing she does ask people a lot of questions on their positions but never notice it impacting her own. I'm not saying it should necessarily since I often do the same thing. It's something to consider though as it is a common scum tactic to make oneself look busier than they really are.

 

Also she's playing constant catch up. Again, it's a busy time of year but it's also a scum tactic and one which I employ myself often. So...there's that.

 

And that's it. 3 pages of ISO and most of it promises to catch up later. Not much to comment on tbh.

 

 

 

Taborline

 

 

Well that didn't take long. Nothing to comment on as I was reading but I do want to note something.

After just reading BFG and then switching to Tab the way questions were asked and posts were formed felt very different.

I'm not sure if I can explain this without being vague or using terms that don't really fit but Tab's posts felt more genuine.

Like Tab is asking and expects an answer because she wants to figure out the game whereas BFG is just asking to ask.

That's how it feels comparing ISO's of the two.

 

Obviously the thing that gives me pause is Tab's continued absences and lack of activity in the game.

I'm not sure how long we can continue to give anyone a pass on activity.

My final thought here is I feel much better about Tab now that I've gone back and read this ISO (especially back to back with BFG) but I still hold severe doubts. 

 

 

 

Gonna skip Shad for now...

 

Thane

 

 

Before he reveals he's asked to be replaced (and wasn't) the only notable thing he said imo was that Xander is low on his list of suspects and he thinks there's scum between me, Lenlo, and Notbob.

 

He gives a reads list after rereading the thread. Interestingly Notbob and Lenlo drifted to his town pile while I made it to the leaning scum pile. BFG and Taborline are now his main suspects.

 

And...that's it.

 

Not sure what to think about that one. It feels more rushed than anything but that could happen as either town or mafia if you're busy you know?

Very null. If Thane is going to stick around we definitely need more from him.

 

 

[Nolder]

I'm going to do Shad separately if I get the chance since he's case is more unique. 

I've got to split it between him and Alanna and Shad has a lot of posts to go through which I'm not really in the mood for right now to be honest, even with skimming.

[Nolder]

Right now I think Tab is just an easy mislynch target for scum (she's sitting at 4/6 votes already and has been for awhile).

I think I'll join Nomi and put some pressure on BFG.

 

[unvote]

 

[v]BFG[/v]

[Thane Vakarian]

Thane, if you're around for a bit, I will be.

 

Thanks for agreeing to continue the game while basically being handicapped due to not being able to access the site often.

I tried to get replaced, but it didn't happen. So at least i'll try to pitch in when i can, i owe my fellow townies as much.  

 

Right now I think Tab is just an easy mislynch target for scum (she's sitting at 4/6 votes already and has been for awhile).

I think I'll join Nomi and put some pressure on BFG.

 

[unvote]

 

[v]BFG[/v]

i put the 4th vote on Tab not too long ago. I think that, if she were actually an easy mislynch target, it would have happened already. Nothing easier than picking off a townie. But, seeing it didn't go through, i think someone is keen on keeping her alive.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You can count me as another vote on Tab if the BFG lynch doesn't happen.

 

It's one or the other today barring an exciting development. And that doesn't mean the one that lives will do so for very long unless I also die.