[Advanced] Nightmare Before Christmas - Town Wins!

[Shad_]

Hey

 

Chill

 

If you've got enough from Nolder to have a scum lean on him and a vote, nothing more is to be gained by badgering him.

 

See me, D1.

 

I kind of don't want to be wrong though.  Scummy doesn't always = scum, and there are things.  Like why would scum throw themselves under the bus all game like this?  Has scum!Nolder done that under pressure in the past, or would he more likely distance himself from the argument and lay it to rest?

[Shad_]

New Topic then.

 

How about some BFG pressure, and some AJ pressure.

 

I think BFG is town but support both of these.  And Tab pressure.  I suppose Tab is already under pressure.  Tab presence would be nice.

[Shad_]

I feel like Nolder has offered a tremendous quantity of data and people with meta should be able to resolve him as town if he is town at this point.

 

Maybe I'm too optimistic about that.

 

I could do the work myself but it would be nice if living town besides myself and (probably) Lenlo and Pizza carry their weight a bit more.

[Nolder]

So what you're trying to say is something like "I don't have a great read on a lot of players both because too many people have been quiet and because I really haven't found the time/energy to engage some of them as much as I would like to"?

Sure dude.

I'm not perfect and I'm not trying to pretend like I'm having a great game or anything.

It doesn't help I'm spending all my time in this game clarifying every little thing I say because you and others want to take it out of context and spin it negatively or more negatively than it deserves.

 

I mean holy crap did I really have to spend 5-8 posts explaining this?

But if I hadn't we'd have been left with Lenlo's false "paraphrasing" or maybe I'd get another accusation of running away from the conversation.

You all have cast me in such a negative light that there really is no winning. If I walk away and ignore the misreps I'm evading and if I don't I spend all my time arguing which makes me look obstinate. If you're not scum then get off my back for awhile. You've made your point and your thoughts are known. What's the point of talking further at this time?

[Shad_]

I feel like Nolder has offered a tremendous quantity of data and people with meta should be able to resolve him as town if he is town at this point.

 

Maybe I'm too optimistic about that.

 

I could do the work myself but it would be nice if living town besides myself and (probably) Lenlo and Pizza carry their weight a bit more.

 

^ Chances of me actually going back and ISOing a bunch of his previous games are pretty slim.  Even Shad has to step away from the game sometimes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Nolder: ignore, reset. Take a short hiatus from the thread if need be.

 

Clear your mind must be, in order to sense the dark side.

[Shad_]

 

So what you're trying to say is something like "I don't have a great read on a lot of players both because too many people have been quiet and because I really haven't found the time/energy to engage some of them as much as I would like to"?

Sure dude.

I'm not perfect and I'm not trying to pretend like I'm having a great game or anything.

It doesn't help I'm spending all my time in this game clarifying every little thing I say because you and others want to take it out of context and spin it negatively or more negatively than it deserves.

 

I mean holy crap did I really have to spend 5-8 posts explaining this?

But if I hadn't we'd have been left with Lenlo's false "paraphrasing" or maybe I'd get another accusation of running away from the conversation.

You all have cast me in such a negative light that there really is no winning. If I walk away and ignore the misreps I'm evading and if I don't I spend all my time arguing which makes me look obstinate. If you're not scum then get off my back for awhile. You've made your point and your thoughts are known. What's the point of talking further at this time?

 

 

Maybe I wanted to see if I could finally restate your thoughts in a manner that you could agree with.  To see if that was even possible or if the confusion was a game you'd committed to and you would never come to terms with how any other player represented you.

 

But I agree that it's time for me to move on.  I do really want to hear other people's thoughts on you.  There's nothing more to gain from me digging into you at this point.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If several folks think you're scummy and nothing you say changes their mind, then there is nothing left to be done in your defense.

 

All offense it must be.

[Nolder]

Gonna try to sleep.

[Shad_]

Sorry if you're town and I stressed you out.

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

New Topic then.

 

How about some BFG pressure, and some AJ pressure.

 

I think BFG is town but support both of these.  And Tab pressure.  I suppose Tab is already under pressure.  Tab presence would be nice.

 

 

I don't.

 

What I saw is something I spotted once before.

 

Citation: Feline AIDS II

Link to game thread

 

 

528, (both guilty) Iversonian and El Timon have 3 votes apiece. Bhuber, the remaining wolf, is parked on the third place candidate. There are 30 minutes remaining on d1. Watch Bhuber's behavior. At this critical juncture of the round, Bhuber begins stalling by pretending to re-read someone who is inactive and has 1 vote on them. His buddy also votes for Elliot. Movement on soah happens and one of his buddies votes for Soah.

 

550

Once Soah is at five votes, all pressure on the wolf team is relieved. There is only one matter left to attend to, placing a vote that doesn't look terrible, like one that's sitting on someone who is never going to be lynched now.

 

Everything is fine, because nothing Bhuber has done so far is really getting him any pressure. He's had an excellent day one. He's essentially in the clear.

 

But there is one stressor left: Making a different vote, one that doesn't look like dog shit, one that looks like a townie solving the game.

 

555 Not willing to risk El Timon, he breaks the second place tie and votes for Elliot, says the reasons should be obvious, someone that he himself had to "re-read" six whole minutes ago. That's a mistake, which is now public record. But here's where it gets interesting-er.

 

558 One whole minute later, after dropping that turd of a vote, he realizes how bad it looks and begins to psychologically distance himself from that turd, by asking someone with zero votes on them a solving question less than 15 minutes before the round ends. Completely trying to change the subject. Uncomfortably. HEY, LOOK OVER HERE. I'M DISTRACTING YOU FROM MY TERRIBLE VOTE AND REASON.

 

Yes, he is not under vote pressure. Yes, his buddies are now safe. But the stress of the decision itself, where to put a safe vote, is what's making him crack. And he doesn't want to talk about Elliot or really push Elliot. A red herring. Hey, look over here. Let's ask No Fear a question and stall.

 

It breaks sequence. Townies should be focusing on the few people who actually have a chance of being lynched, and trying to convince others that these lynches are good or bad. Bhuber's mind is on something else because he has an entirely different agenda during these few minutes. He also tries to direct attention to my flip flop on Soah. Hey, pizza said he wouldn't lynch Soah. LOOK OVER HERE. DISTRACTIONS ARE GOOD.

 

589 one minute before deadline, he asks another question about someone with zero votes on them, to stall, to direct attention anywhere but onto himself. "Did sun say he would be away for EoD - I saw that UAW said he would have a break at 9 but he didnt make it back that I saw?"

 

He's not under pressure by vote, he's under pressure because of the situation. That's situational pressure.

 

His reaction, whether it is effective or not, this is instinct, fight or flight response, is to run away from something he's afraid of, that his bad vote will lead to attention on himself.

 

So, he's trying very hard to direct attention onto others, on instinct. Changing the subject, pointing at anything odd, asking meaningless questions.

 

They're sequence breaking. Some other folks are talking about other things, but they're mostly replying to things the wolves have said.

 

Some of the villagers, SGT and no fear spot how bad these posts are. Which is why, even without pressure, Bhuber is panicking a little and trying to change the subject and direct attention elsewhere.

 

 

Okay? That's wordy but it completely sums up that specific brain wave, a pattern of behavior which is guilty, and totally different from a townie's brain.

 

Take a deep breath. Whooo. Feels good? One more wall to read. And it's just a rehash of what I said earlier.

 

 

 

 

[v]Snow[/v]

Dice, I'd rather vote someone I find scummy than someone I'm mostly null on.

 

Tab's level of uninvolvement is pretty massive. She didn't even follow up with her Nolder thoughts.

:/

 

Pretty much this though

 

Zander when did you push Tabor? What stage of the game?

 

Note the timestamps on these posts.

 

This rush of posts at the end, and the timing of them, the specific vote, the question she asked Zander with literally 1 minute left in the round, indicates that her psychological state was not normal. It indicates she was under stress.

 

It doesn't have to mean that Tabor was scum. They could be townies, but BFG was skating all round, and might have been having trouble finding a place to put a vote, and couldn't explain away not voting. So, she was compelled to place a vote, as scums often feel compelled to do so, and I don't buy that that final question she posed to Zander was something she was doing for any reason other than flat out stalling and padding her participation near the end.

 

It's basically an attempt to divert attention away from what she was doing.

 

BFG was looking forward to playing with me this game, and she's done nothing with me, basically. She's afraid of getting into an entanglement with me.

 

She's hiding, she's stressed, and she's feeling guilty.

 

She's total scum and needs to die 100% of the time this game. Never, ever, ever, ever let her survive this game. She's essentially caught.

 

This overrides everything else she did today.

 

 

 

Note the sequence break. Note the completely irrelevant-to-the-solve question at one minute to deadline. Note the rush of posts after her vote near deadline. The fact that she voted that close to the deadline indicates she was completely aware of the deadline itself, so this is not a null factor. Rapid-fire, not much thought put into it, as if BFG is psychologically burying a post of hers which she herself must feel is a turd of a vote. She can't be that proud of that vote, even before the flip. This is the stress of someone who just lynched a townie and knows it.

 

She knew she was lynching a townie just then, I feel. I also feel she was cracking under the stress of having to either decline to vote at all, all round, or having to make a vote between Taborline and John Snow, or placing a conspicuously useless vote on someone else entirely.

 

She wasn't under any pressure all round, so she was skating. But, she's got a guilty conscience because she was skating and barely hunting, and not voting for anyone.

 

She feels guilty about her vote, about who she voted for, and when she placed the vote as well.

 

She is distancing herself from her decision, which clearly stressed her out a lot.

 

Can this be wrong? Yes, if she experiences that same level of stress as a townie. But how can that be?

 

I know I wanted to place the correct vote yesterday. I felt a lot of stress, during those moments of decision. But it was a stress of a different kind. It was not guilt stress, it was not stress of oh gosh, I haven't placed a vote yet. It was not stress of lynching someone I know to be a townie. The only stress I was feeling was the "need to get this right" stress.

 

So, that's the theory.

 

If it's wrong, then BFG can tell you exactly what was on her mind at the time, what her emotional state was, why she was finally convinced to drop the vote on JS, why she hadn't voted prior to that moment.

 

Basically, it's time to know everything you possibly can know about BFG.

 

Updated lean list. Current top 3/4/5 suspects and why. Explanation for that end of day.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Shad, you said you think this is wrong based on your understanding of her meta, or the meta on this site, iirc.

 

You think she's a townie, and so forth.

 

I have noted that, but I have to ask you if you are sure. Because if there's a scumbag in your list of townies, it's going to be BFG here, I feel.

[Askthepizzaguy]

PS on D2 of that game I called out both Bhuber and iversonian based on that EOD.

[Leelou]

Vote Count 

 

Nol (1) - Lenlo

Lenlo (1) - Nol 

BFG (1) - Pizza

 

It is now day. With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. 

 

[Leelou]

And now, I'm going to bed. Goodnight. 

[Askthepizzaguy]

You know, it occurred to me within the past several hours that if this game has a vigilante, they might be a one-shot vigilante.

 

I don't know why this didn't even cross my mind all of D1/N1.

 

Might be worth still discussing vig shot candidates.

 

 

[dicetosser1]

 

[v]Andrej[/v] get in here son.

 

I am totally cool with lynching Tab today fwiw.

Also cool. Zanders last wish was that Tab get lynched, I aim to see that through for him.

 

 

i dont think im lynching Tab today. Too obvious and im not real keen on shads post here

[dicetosser1]

@ nolder

 

ok lets talk bro.

 

so im fairly clear you think len is scum. can you trell me ure thoughts on other players?  theres been so much too and fro with u len and shad that im a bit lost where ure standing.

 

I also want to know why I shouldnt lynch you especially because of the timing of ure show up just after DL. BE CLEAR i am not asking role info. I am asking for you to try and convince me. I saidf it about snow. He didnt do it. I voted him and screwed the pooch. I have no interest in doing that again.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Hi Dice.

[dicetosser1]

hi pizza

 

what do u think about tab in light of zanders flip?

[Askthepizzaguy]

hi pizza

 

what do u think about tab in light of zanders flip?

 

It's null.

 

If Zander was right, it's a good murder. If Zander was wrong, it's a good murder.

 

Zander was almost universally being town-read, and he's either someone they had to murder, or someone it would have been really great to murder anyway, to give that impression.

 

Taborline does need to get in the game thread and participate, because she will always eat a mislynch this game if she's a townie and she does not do so.

[Askthepizzaguy]

It will be too easy for the wolves to argue for that lynch if she's absent again and misses the vote again.

 

She said she was busy IRL. Like I said in my big post last night, we're usually the team that's boned, because we are the larger team. More crap happens to our team.

 

If she's a wolf, I don't think she survives final 3, and very little will come of pressure voting her. If she's a wolf, she will hide, be bussed or not be bussed. If she's a townie, that pressure isn't on wolves.

 

You either lynch her, or don't, but she should not be the main focus of the round. The lynch is a different story, but I'd wager not.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I will be back in a few, this is the dead part of the discussion time I suppose.

[Clovdyx]

I was counting votes, because I didn't realize Leelou had recently done one, but I'm too committed at this point to back down.

 

Vote Count 

 

• Nolder - 1 - Lenlo
• Lenlo - 1 - Nolder
• BFG - 1 - Askthepizzaguy

With 10 alives, it's 6 to lynch!

 

[Lenlo]

If I have anything to say about it Nolder or Tab will be today's lynch. To many times have I seen town have a day like D1 then decide not to lynch the scummiest player in the game, thinking the slot will resolve itself before F3.

 

Yeah tall about who and what you want but I am not moving from Tab and Nolder.