Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

Zander? · July 9, 2015

Laine should be L-2 now. I'll be on in the morning and will hold my vote until then so the Euro/Aussie players can weigh in on the new stuff before he end the phase.

Feeling really good about this fwiw. It's been a pleasure working with you guys.

uggg Im running circles around in my head trying to figure this out. im with AJ here.

I'm cool with this but whoever "oops I slept in"s on it is going to rocket down my list.

whats sleep...lolololololol

Zander? · July 9, 2015

Checked (cause I'm that guy), error was on Seph's part not Thane's so I don't have to feel icky about it.

ive already commented on seph's math skills....lololololol

Thane Vakarian · July 9, 2015

That you did, Son... that you did

Andrej · July 9, 2015

See you all in a few hours.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

I usually get up at 9 or 10 est so I should be able to check in and see if anything crazy happens. G'night.

Thane Vakarian · July 9, 2015

Cyas all in a few hours, i'll be around a bit more.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

On my phone too hot to fall asleep easily, I was reading back over my ISO of Laine's comments on Rand and noticed that some of the "derp" reasons Rand sussed Laine are actually reasons I'm voting her now, though his way of pointing them out is awkward and kind of pinged me on him rather than on her at the time. Laine's progress on Rand still feels like bussing a team mate imo.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

Mainly he doesn't like her push on Dice and the feeling bad for Thane. Legit origins of my scum read on Laine but calls them scummy before enough surfaces to make them so. Laine doesn't progress from feeling bad for Thane in this game (possible) to feeling bad about lynching him in SW (not buying it) until she REPLIES to Rand's observation, and on Dice he doesn't like her early (I think rather benign) responses to his vote, whereas Laine's Dice view pings where she and BFG drastically differ on their interpretation of Dice's scum play in another game.

dicetosser1 · July 9, 2015

@Zander - IF Rand flips town, and that's a big if imo, then this is something I'd definitely consider.

Would also make me suspect Verb a bit as well since he's sort of bandwagoning the theory and now backing off a bit.

Would still rather resolve Rand first before I start to tinfoil on others when he could very well be a wolf. I would hate to get off track at this point. Town could very easily be out of firepower based on how roles were randomized and scum probably have at lease one more shot in their pocket.

you know what im with you on this pending Alanna's answer to Shad's question. we need the info from these two to progress this game atp.

[v[ Rand [/v]

I like the way Shad thinks: Rand was looking bad D1, so probably shot N1 and is out of bullets. He's a harmless wolf: he can bark, but not bite. Rather kill a wolf that can still bite.

Thane is soooo town this game it scares me!!! Good job Pops!!!

But we have to remember theres a 2x Vig as well. Could Alanna's push and subsequent wolfy play be an attempt to draw off of him and on to her cause he may be the 2x Vig?

Im starting to sketch out on Zander. These two posts make me think he is looking for a reason NOT to vote Laine

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

I like the way Shad thinks: Rand was looking bad D1, so probably shot N1 and is out of bullets. He's a harmless wolf: he can bark, but not bite. Rather kill a wolf that can still bite.

Thane is soooo town this game it scares me!!! Good job Pops!!!

But we have to remember theres a 2x Vig as well. Could Alanna's push and subsequent wolfy play be an attempt to draw off of him and on to her cause he may be the 2x Vig?

I just realized how ridiculous this question is. Laine's not going to sacrifice herself to preserve a night kill. You three team mates?

Don't answer that. Lots of other people have to die before I suss you.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

Dice mindmeld or what bro?

But I'm cool with Zander until we've cleared out the low-hanging fruit.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

Like we posted that at the exact same minute lol

RandA lThor · July 9, 2015

[EDITED]

[EDITED]

OK and these are the last two posts, and I have absolutely nothing solid here at all, but for some reason, my scum radar was going berserk when I read these posts. I just put these here to see if anyone else has the same reaction, or can quantify/give reasons for what I'm feeling.

"I literally have a mountain of content to look through with my scum read here - but I can't legitimately come up with any sort of reasoning behind it so would someone else perhaps do it for me?"

Really dude?

Well, I mean I was being honest, not making up some BS, it was honestly just a strong gut feeling...

i'm currently trying to re-read. It takes time at work. i've said so before. Ignore that, if you want.

[v]Hallia[/v]

you're grasping., tunneling... whatever...

I'll be back in a few hours (!) when i have managed to reread while AT WORK

Tbh, I don't see Thane being this obvious as mafia (like others have mentioned). Its pretty ballsy for mafia to openly OMGUS the person that voted them, especially during D1 when there are so many other directions for a train to go. I see this as Thane striking out as town.

This is probably the weakest of all reasons out there to be town reading Thane.

As I said, I tried not to repeat things others have said, but I think the fact that Thane is playing the game rather than trying to act town is plenty enough reason for a town read. Someone else said nearly the exact same thing iirc, and no one commented on that.

K, this is a little tinfoil, but imo at least one mafia/wolf would want to know why Yates had a scum read on someone if that person was town, because if valid enough, scum would have a reason to bw on the train all the way to lynch town, while having Yates lead it (who we also know is town), as a perfect excuse. I also believe because of this that Yates wasn't killed by the mafia, because they would have wanted to keep him alive to put the blame on for killing Hally. Anyways, this leads me to thinking one of Shad and Laine is mafia, and since I have a townread on Shad right now, and a maf read on Laine, I'm leaning towards Laine being mafia.

Really?

Like - you had it laid out in front of you that it was extremely likely that Yates killed Hallia. He said he would AND he flipped vig. Why are you going out of your way to make up other theories? You think a townie killed Yates? Who then??

Also - this logic is what you're going to use for supporting your scum read on Laine over like everything else that has been said about her?

I don't understand you, Rand. And I have a super hard time thinking this is the way a villager would think in this situation - like, are we even reading the same game?

Like I said, Im' trying to find new points in my rereads, so that I'm not just boring you guys with info you already know and just sheeping people who already did the work. And at the same time what I'm saying is someone probably thought Yates was mafia and tried to go for the hero kill and killed a town instead. I'm still agreeing that Yates killed Hallia, I don't see what so unbelivable about that. Is it so hard to belive that mafia just used one kill and killed Pral? Also, if there are 13 people starting, and mafia kill one person each night, and we lynch one person each night, and lets say for kicks we're wrong all 4 times, that puts us at 5 people left, 3 of which who are wolves, who now will win. I can see them only using 1 kill per night, and this night on Pral.

General question: If Rand or Alanna end up flipping town after the lynch which gives us more info.

Hmmm... Hadn't considered that too much. Honestly if Rand flips town I'm not sure how much value I put into his reads because his reasons don't make sense to me and his conclusions are formed through a thought process I can't follow. It's almost like we're reading separate games.

For Laine I really don't know who she has had as suspects other than Dice or Thane - and as some of noted her progression there was pretty sketchy with the perma-null read and "feeling bad" stuff

Honestly, when I've gone back and read, I'm not looking at Yates/Hally/Pral's reads at all, or very little to be exact. I'm more going with how other people interacted, when they FoSed or jumped on a bandwagon etc. that's definitely more indicative.

Anyways, I'm not going to be here at the deadline, and I have to go to sleep now. Unluckily I didn't get any progress on the reread since my car died twice today, which was killer, but I just got back and quickly read everything that is currently happening. Pretty obviously I'm going to [v]Laine[/v] here since the other option is here, but I've also laid a case out for her (or a few quotes at the least). And just so no one misses this

Laine is now at L-1, next vote will be the hammer on her lynch

Also, since I'm not going to be around until after deadline, I'm just going to claim just in case the train goes against me. I'm Rob Gronkowski (yeeee), 1x vig, unused. If I do live tonight, I'm planning on using the shot because it looks like I'm going to die anyways the next day, and although I do have my list, I'm fine with being town led AS LONG AS EVERYONE OR ALMOST EVERYONE GIVES THEIR OPINION ON WHO TO SHOOT. I don't want an active mafia majority influencing me on who to shoot. Anyways, night peeps, I'll probably be on for a few more minutes in case you guys have questions and stuff for me.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

Rand, aren't Pats the bad guys in this game? I mean it's called Belichick mafia. Didn't Darthe give you any safe claims?

Pretty sure they are. w/w confirmed?

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

BTW we're lynching Laine. This cat already burned his night kill and wants us to lynch him first.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

I'm probably reading way more into this than is really there. Meh, sleep!

RandA lThor · July 9, 2015

Rand, aren't Pats the bad guys in this game? I mean it's called Belichick mafia. Didn't Darthe give you any safe claims?

Pretty sure they are. w/w confirmed?

I mean, I guess Gronk's awesome so he's town? Also Darthe said he gave safe claims to mafia that were randomized from a list, which would mean that there's really no point in juding me off my claim, I just did it for context, plus I like being Gronk.

RandA lThor · July 9, 2015

BTW we're lynching Laine. This cat already burned his night kill and wants us to lynch him first.

I mean, I'm going to prove it (that I have a kill) tonight so...

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

It's all good, off chance you're legit we can put that vig to work tonight.

Thane Vakarian · July 9, 2015

sure, but on who? That's a good question to consider.

RandA lThor · July 9, 2015

It's all good, off chance you're legit we can put that vig to work tonight.

What I'm going to do to people when I vig them

post-54066-michael-bay-gronk-explosions-

sure, but on who? That's a good question to consider.

Yeah, I've already stated some of my ideas, and I'll get more as i read more, but like I said, if town as a whole decides, I'm up to killing them.

Thane Vakarian · July 9, 2015

you're going down a dangerous road here, Rand....

BFG · July 9, 2015

At the moment I REALLY don't want to lynch Talya, Dice, AJ or Shad.

I'm almost as positive that Dice is town this game as I was that he WASN'T town in Pokemon (and that was pretty strong given that I was mafia, he wasn't and Hallia had already flipped 3rd party). This is a strong(!) meta read, so LOL!BFG if I'm wrong. If Dice completely disappears from thread consider this read rescinded/considerably weakened, likewise if he starts posting without being noticed.

If anyone wants the CCSoHW version of his meta (entry level) look through Cory's posts in Cliché mafia - the one with the Simpson gifs

If Talya's mafia then lesson learned. I just don't see her approach to the game as being mafia, I don't follow any/many of Zanders arguments and just generally she seems town. I disagree that she sounds like she knows who people are alignment wise; it reads like she's trying to figure stuff out and the thought process is on thread.

AJ has had a lot of the same thoughts/reactions/processes as me. Is he capable of replicating this as mafia, probably but would he bother, probably not, so right now that needs hefty tinfoil. Is he capable of pocketing me, definately :/ I'm always wary when I town read AJ, but I am town reading AJ :)

Given that literally the entire thread has Shad as Strong Town, except maybe Dice and that I think I'm just being excessively paranoid at a level normally reserved for Clov/Tommy/Cory (that group is excellent company Shad), if he's mafia then GG. He's off the table as well, at least for now. Especially given his play from about page 20 onwards, which I pretty much can't fault, although I'll ISO at some point to check.

The above is said with a sickening feeling that I'm being pocketed by at least one of AJ/Shad :/ but I can't mistrust everyone, that way madness lies.

Zander, Laine, Verb, Thane, Rand

Thane probably looks the best to me out of this group. I'd like to add Verb, but he seems reserved to me, so I'm going to have to look through his recent games to see what the rest of you are.

Zander ISO is incoming, brace yourselves (because he posted a lot and I can't quote easily, it's text heavy, consider skipping to the TLDRs)

I'll be on at lunch to post thoughts on the others; I hoped I'd have time to get through Zanders and Laines ISOs before work, but Zanders took most of my free time last night and this morning.

BFG · July 9, 2015

This is mostly just a list of what he's posted, with some fact checking and some opinion. It's mostly for future reference, it's probably worth skipping to the TLDRs.

Page 1 ISO:

Town read on Yates and Thane

Page 2 ISO:

Response to Talya – Yates is town, meta? Joke cos he’s OBV Town

‘Town cheerleader’

Asks AJ for thoughts

Yates not scummy, Talya ‘into it’ but no read, likes AJs tone – no mention of Thane

Follows Yates Fail votes for No Lynch; realises error; Votes Yates

Feeling good on Yates, Likes AJ, Laine is mayor; Talya pinging, can’t put finger on it

Thane null (possibly a joke)

Page 3 ISO:

Tbh Talya still null, tone ‘Now Dog’ ‘still be lazy and win’ mostly gut, learning to trust it. Chances there’s a wolf in the low posters

Dice is starting isn’t there yet, liking Shad

Likes Thane, not like Star Wars

Brings up joke post of Dices ‘very wolfy’

My post on Shad is gross (saying he hasn’t been paying attention – later on Shad agrees), Shad was first to spot Yates Yatesing

Shad is fluffing the way most people are, feel he’s more comfortable with us all, Zanders been progressing the same way, likes Shad more than me

How bad my Shad progression is worth noting that Talya is pulling out a lot of the same things that Zander is at this point

Responds to Yates about mafia!Dice or Town!Dice, seeing SW Dice – Dice has posted nothing in between Zanders unsure post and his town read of Dice

‘Town cheerleader’

Agrees with Hallia that Yates/AJ are town

Responds to AJ – Shad is towny and I am aggressive :rolleyes:

Shad townie

Thane reaction vote – ugh, Talya pinging, Yates not getting lynched, Thane not looking good

Asks AJ to change his vote as Shad not a wolf – interesting mix in his reaction to me and AJ – says if AJ doesn’t then he’ll think AJ isn’t playing in towns best interest

@Rand was gonna quote. We agree on almost everything except Alanna, not getting lynched on my watch. We wreck towns together and she’s playing very much like the other games we’ve played together in. One thing we agree on is Talya though. I like some of the points you made on her!

Also Rand roots for the 9ers so pretty much clears him... lolololol

Just gonna say I hope this wasn’t a Freudian slip

Replies to Talya – Laine mayor because they wreck wolves. Poor look on Talya. Covered this already Tone and Gut – except he hasn’t really mentioned Laine yet except to say she’s mayor talks about previous games/reads

Not lynching: Yates, Alanna, Shad, Rand AJ Considering Thane, Talya, BFG

Page 4 ISO

Asks Shad who besides Thane

Not liking some players have said next to nothing, wolf slacking

Responds to Talyas joke(?) ‘out your team mates) with creates nothing but WIFOM

Me saying that if Talya is mafia then I’ll be sad is gross – distancing – eh?

Responds to Hallia about Rand and mine respective positions with he’s already explained it and Rand is a 9ers fan so bias

Doesn’t like my ‘disagree with list’ comment

Shad towny

Back and forth - Says that he doesn’t like me on tone (based on AJs ‘aggressive’ post) I STILL don’t like this. So far he’s used previous games to determine Yates/Thane alignment, later he uses games to look at Verbs alignment BUT to justify this he’s using out of game impressions on me DESPITE having recent games to get an idea for how I behave as mafia and town. I don’t know if I can explain this more clearly. It comes down to the fact that he’s treating Talya (I’ll get there in a bit) and myself differently to other players, by which I mean using different standards – in this case he’s using non game meta to justify a read, but for everyone else he’s using game meta. It's like he's saying Player X is scummy because of Action Y, but even though I'm using Action Z to judge everyone else, I'm going to use Action Y in this case, because it fits my case, and Action Z doesn't

Brings up previous reads about Yates/Sili, thinks Talya is a better bet

There’s a back and forth between us over the read thing. If I squint I can understand his point; but it seemed fairly clear to me that when I said he was wrong I was referring to his read on me, and other than that I was saying I disagreed /shrug

Wants to give Thane more time before lynching him despite hating the OMGUS vote – still like this

Pral cutting it close to deadline

Doesn’t know if I’m scum or frustrated townie, votes Talya

Page 5 ISO

Hallia is null

Shad isn’t wolf (response to Yates)

Hallia should PROVE she’s town

Laine should follow him to victory

Isn’t mafia reading Hallia

Brings up 9-5 reads, SW

Asks Yates about Talya cos he’s probably wrong on Hallia

Thinks it’s Talya, me and someone at low end post count see point above his stated read doesn’t alter to reflect his posting – MINOR point

Other game reads weren’t all gut reads at the end but they were in the beginning.

Asks Yates why she ‘derp’ cleared herself this is what I mean by Zander using different standards to look at people; here Talya, as an experienced player and mod shouldn’t have fallen for Yates test, yet he doesn’t blink at AJ, who is also an experienced player and mod doing the same

HALLIA ISN’T A WOLF YATES

No way Talya isn’t more wolf than Hallia

Thinks that Talya derp clear was a gambit that backfired – except Talya may not be one for gambits, and the thing happened to quickly for it to have been thought about. Reaction was in real time and ‘honest’ regardless of Talya’s alignment.

Thinks Yates is 1/3 (on me)

Laine needs to reread Talya

Yates doing something

Thinks Talya thought ‘test’ through

Doesn’t like VC (very spread around)

Page 6

I’m going to have to start summarising more, else I won’t get this done before work and I have other things I want to think about

Rather lynch Talya

Batting averages with AJ

Has Talya mentioned Rand prior to vote – She had, about 20 minutes before her vote when she looked at his re-entrance post.

Banter with AJ

Asks AJ what happens if Rand doesn’t flip wolf (AJ said Shad/Talya cleared forever if he did)

Dice/Thane prob not wolves, Hallia prob not; Talya and I prob are, likely one of Laya or Verb, fine with vote

Banter with Yates/Hallia in which he reiterates his reads

+1s some of Shads questions to me

Page 7 ISO

Hates reaction votes

Banter with Yates

Why should Hallia be town

Vote Talya

Hallia should learn how to town ugh

Back and forth with Hallia; Zander says Zander is obv town, he’s cleared ‘several players’, feels like a jerk (:/)

Will back off reads when he thinks he’s wrong (e.g. Csarmi/Seph)

Missed that Yates was looking at the trains

Banter

Flips will help

Starts quoting Talya posts – creating WIFOM by either saying she had AJ as town or joking with Zander that he should out his teammates; doesn’t like her calling out his read on Yates while readingAJ town )difference in content og Yates/AJ at that point in the game), Talya has modded so shouldn’t have fallen for Yates ‘test’, doesn’t like tone in ‘Now Dog’ – I still don’t have a clue what he’s on about :/

Town; AJ, Shad, Laine, Thane Slight Town; Dice, Hallia Mafia oe of Rand/Pral/Verb, BFG, Talya

More Talya posts – disagree that any of them make Talya look bad

Odd comparison – Talya takes on a ‘tone’ when frustrated; like Star Wars, yet this game the same thing is because she’s frustrated mafia???

Fluff

Page 9 ISO

DAY 2

Banter

Doesn’t think it’s a good idea to let mafia know of any shots taken

Gonna lynch Talya

Town Verb

Rand townish

Interesting that he brought up 9=5 as a game where he had the entire team pegged; when THIS game, even if he were right about me and Talya he obviously hasn’t

‘does somebody have to be a uncounterclaimed doc around here to get lynched?’ I lolled

Response to Verb; not bragging, will play the way he wants to, wants people to trust him when he’s got a gut instinct, TRYING to game solve – except he’s not, because he’s not considering ANYBODY outside of Talya/me

Says Talya is more carefree as town here she’s more decisive (he’s already quoted a post in which he says she’s fencesitting on Thane); that in previous games people are unsure on Talya this game everyone’s positive (again using actual previous games for a read, unlike for me :dry: ).

I’m a wolf lean for ‘defending’ Talya when I questioned Zanders change in read

Soft defends Rand

Doesn’t like my explanation to Shad about why I questioned Zander about Talya the timing of when this originally happened is interesting, I’ll get back to this

Page 10 ISO

Banter

Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

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