House of Cards

[Clovdyx]

 

 

Cass/Sooh not being v/v can easily be TMI. He ended up on Sooh's lynch after all and didn't do anything else but park on Cass D2

 

Parked on it until it was obvious Wombat was getting lynched, and then I'm pretty sure he made no further attempt to discuss her the rest of the day.  Not 100% sure on that, but I think that's how it went.

 

 

The question is how sure he was that the Wombat lynch was going to go through. Timing wise I don't know how it all went.... but it just seems odd to me that he would vote a teammate while another teammate is being ran up. ie wouldn't he try to push a townie to get the heat off of Wombat?

 

 

I'm pretty sure he was already on Cass before Wombat was getting run up.  If he immediately switched off his strongest townread to <nonWombat> just as Wombat started getting pressure - after he had already made multiple pushes on Wombat D1 - I think he would have caught a ton of negative attention for it.

[Andrej]

Like I said earlier the wolves never controlled any wagon. I get what you're saying there Nyn but Verb also never really pushed Cass. I think them not having Day chat hurt their coordination a lot as a team. They were pretty stagnant all game

[Clovdyx]

Don't worry guys, I wish I had died too

 

But I didn't so you're still going to have to deal with me being in this game: sorry

 

[v]Wombat[/v]

 

 

I'm going to [v]Clov[/v] for now. I just can't get comfortable with him. 

 

 

Best wishes to anybody going through rl stuff. :-(

 

I'm off work today and have a ton of stuff to do so I won't be on much until later. I'll keep up via phone.

 

I rolled the dice last night and stuck with my peek of Cory. I won't be giving you crap anymore now, heh.

 

I'm also sticking to my guns from yesterday - I thought Sooh was the wolf, but Cass was the wolf in my mind if Sooh flipped villager. I'll pull up the quotes later, but them not being on the same team was screaming out as obvious to me.

 

[v]Cass[/v]

 

First three votes on D2.  His teammate was only at 1 when he moved onto Cass.  You're right that he could have moved off before it started snowballing, but I'm still not sure he had plausible reason to move off her to anyone BUT Wombat based on day 1.  

[Nynaeve]

Well I think what got me to think that Cass is town is her initial read list, which I thought she wouldn't have the stones to do as scum (subjective opinion). And also the way Verbal was trying to set her up. But it's also true that throughout the game she seemed to get on trains last minute and I feel like lately she had to be prompted to partake, and while I get RL and all and different timezones... she seems to stagger a lot until she finally dishes out her thoughts. And I associate that with her sitting back and letting the others run the show.

[Nynaeve]

To be honest I keep forgetting that scum can't talk during the day. 

[Nynaeve]

Pressure's ON 

 

 

[v]Cass[/v]

[Kaylee]

Pressure's ON

 

 

[v]Cass[/v]

Shall i switch now?

[Nynaeve]

Up to you. I think we still have like 14 hours till deadline either way.

[Nynaeve]

right?  >.>

[Kaylee]

right? >.>

Something like that. Ok I'll switch.

 

[unvote][v]Cass[/v]

[Andrej]

Kay I sorta wish you wouldn't just follow Nyn around.

[Kaylee]

Well my POE is you, Cass and Clov. I'd like to find and lynch the last wolf. I'm not sure who it is. With Nyn switching her vote I think that put Cass as more votes. I'm on mobile so can't check to see what happens if there's a tie. Deadline is about 6am for me and I may not be around. I go to bed in a few hours. I definitely want a lynch. I haven't played in a game that wasn't hammer.

[Kaylee]

Also I'm not very sure which one is the wolf.

[dicetosser1]

unvote: vote cass

[Songstress]

Tress, what do you think?  

 

I think it's a bit of a toss up.  I do think it's either Clov or Cass, and I've been not wanting it to be Cass but I can't see her play this game being out of the question for her as mafia.  Clov's done some things that I felt were questionable as well, so I'm all right with either order.  I really can't see both of them flipping town here.

 

I think Dice is going to have to be the NK tonight - if we don't win it on this lynch - because he is the only confirmed town, and if both Clov and Cass turn out to be town, then we get into a sticky F3 with either me/Kaylee/AJ or you/Kaylee/AJ, depending on who they fear more and/or think is more likely to be mislynchable.  And with Clov and AJ both saying they won't worry about me unless I'm alive at F3, I guess I know who that is.

 

If you guys want to lynch Cass first, I won't complain.  I still kind of hope we're wrong, but I can't say I don't see a world in which town wins 9 hours from now.

 

[v]Cass[/v]

[Andrej]

If the game doesn't end with Cass getting lynched I will be surprised honestly.

 

At this point the ISO research seems overdone. 2/3 wolves are already gone so to me it comes down to basic thread recall. Needing to go back and continually case someone to make sure you are right seems more like busy work than actual scum hunting. Either someone is suspect or they aren't.

[Andrej]

Well my POE is you, Cass and Clov. I'd like to find and lynch the last wolf. I'm not sure who it is. With Nyn switching her vote I think that put Cass as more votes. I'm on mobile so can't check to see what happens if there's a tie. Deadline is about 6am for me and I may not be around. I go to bed in a few hours. I definitely want a lynch. I haven't played in a game that wasn't hammer.

I get it. My point was that your way of following Nyn leaves you with little accountability when it's all said and done. Let's say Clov and Cass and both lynched and flip town. Now looking back you can just say you were sheeping your top town read which more or less absolves you of whatever stance you took.

[Nynaeve]

Morning

[dicetosser1]

waves at nyn

[Nynaeve]

Heya dice =)

[Nynaeve]

Cass viewing this thread for the last hour and not posting a word bodes well ^_^

[Cass]

Here's the rest of relevant Clov ISO.

 

DAY 2:

 

• Votes Cass again (Verbal and Leelou Town, Tress and Nyn close to clear. Confident with AJ/Cory/Kaylee but probably one scum between them).
  ***Contradicts previous WTL Cass/Sooh/Dice/Leelou/Tress (with Cass least preferred due to effort), switches Town read of Wombat to scum by POE***

• Explains switch of town read to Wombat as lowest three /'somebody has to be mafia' **Not sure he would do this at this stage if they were on the same team***

• Fors and against - No downside to AJ, doesn't agree with some of Kaylee's reads
• Questions/FoS  Kaylee for holding peek ****Initially thought this was about discrediting her Seer cover***

• Do you think it's wrong of me to read the really obvious townies as town? Or should I push them just to avoid going after the two or three people at the bottom?***

• Concludes Dice's POE lynch list Clov/AJ/Wombat, in that order
• Asks Wombat what stood out about Verb/AJ's votes
• Votes Wombat 'not 100% sold on you, but if you're making this between you and Cory…'

• Agrees with AJs reassessment of read on Verb, disagrees with AJ looking for reasons to bump mafia candidates up

 

 

DAY 3:

• Starts day with 'Verbal is most certainly mafia IMO' *** Post reads as genuine, feel unlikely to be partners here***
• Last mafia Cass/AJ - either means Verb/AJ had both members of scum team as top two candidates
• Kaylee not likely partner with Wombat
• Doesn't like Cass' scummy read on Wombat ***

• AJ-Wombat interactions better than Cass, worse than Kaylee.

• ISO's Verbal ***? Would he make this effort as a team mate?***

• Didn't have Verb as mafia read until end
• Asks Nyn why they voted Wombat
• Votes Kaylee, doesn't like progression on Wombat/Verbal  -followed everybody on all three lynches so far  *** Good points***

 

DAY 4:

• Vote Cass
• Says vote on Kaylee was search for reactions
• Answers Cass is most likely scum for 'a lot of reasons' ***Doesn't elaborate other than Verb push on Kaylee/Cass bottom two on Verb's list***

 

 

 

His interactions with Verb and Wombat could go either way. On the one hand the vote on Wombat felt distancy and he didn't change his read of Verb until near the end, still voted Kaylee. On the other hand he shifts his Town read of Wombat to scum by PoE,fairly early on. As well as the things that were mentioned earlier in the day, I don't like his repeat voting on me from D1 culminating in 'a lot of reasons (without elaboration)'. This fits the theory of Sooh and I being the main lynch targets for scum. D2 his early vote on me contradicts his late WTL of Cass/Sooh/Dice/Leelou/Tress, with me 'least preferred' lynch. 

 

[Cass]

Cass viewing this thread for the last hour and not posting a word bodes well ^_^

 

I'm working my little buttocks off over here. Figure I'm a gonner so I'm fishing quotes etc. 

[Cass]

FWIW though, I don't like the way the 'case' on me is basically recency bias based on all the wolf games, people expecting me to play better and 'Verb may have been setting something up'. Has anyone even looked at the way I questioned my suspects this game? Compared it to how I questioned people in the first game I played? The Arthurian/Cliche games where I got ousted immediately for being not so good at Town? The stuff about confirming my reads before I vote and voting late is totally null. I may not be as adept as the rest of you, but I feel I've been pretty consistent, and I put pressure on AJ, Verb and Wombat just like I did with Darthe D1 when I felt something was up.

[Cass]

Gonna pull out the quotes of the things I haven't liked about AJ.

 

Starting with the fact that he repeatedly pushes Sooh/Cass lynches but has hedged/flip-flopped on both, with poor progression on Sooh and weak, sheepish/recency bias against me.

 

Here's thoughts on the Sooh lynch again, TLDR he hedges/sheeps/voices agreement wtih pushes on a Sooh lynch the entire D1 but doesn't get directly involved. Before his vote on her he had her in WTL but at the top of the pile, and was pushing a vote on me harder than he had been at her. 

 

 

 

 

Here's the Sooh stuff from AJ.

 

[v]Sooh[/v]

I'm comfortable moving here for toDay. My reads haven't changed all that much from where I was last night but I think Cass's effort is coming across in a good way. We'll see as things progress but I at least think she's bought herself more time. I'll miss EOD because I'll be at work and since the thread is closed for Night I'll just have to catch up again and wait for Day.

GLGL

 

I don't like the lead-up to AJ's vote on Sooh.

 

He hedges/voices agreement with pushes on Sooh entire D1, suggests the odds are decent of her being wolf but doesn't push her or question her himself at all. He skips giving a direct read on Sooh in his catchup and instead focuses on liking the way Nyn was handling the situation. His entire read of Nyn in that post is 'Nyn is obvtown' and then analysis of how he approves of the way Nyn is handling Sooh. The next reads list he provides he puts Sooh firmly in the middle of the pile, willing to lynch but at the top near Town. The next time he mentions her is close to EoD and he switches from me to place the 6th vote on the train. Pretty much moving AJ to the bottom of my scum pile for this right now. Feels like he may have been trying too hard to not be directly involved.

 

 

 

 

Agrees with Nyn that Sooh's soulread question came across as awkward, likes the bite in Nyn's push:

 

 

 

However, I think Sooh is definitely wolfing this round. She is usually a pretty pure townie. [v] Sooh [/v]

I didn't like her question to Clov, basically.

I'll agree the question came across awkward.

 

 

Approval of Nyn's push and aggression, highlighting general trend for Nyn/against Sooh distanced with humour?

 

Clov came in and made a joke about the scum team's identity, naming three players that haven't posted yet. You asked him if that was a soulread and then asked if it was a aussie theme. The whole post sounded fake to me and I did not care for it.

 

Darthe's opinion of how you usually play means squat to me. Other than mentoring you in a game, I don't think we've played together before so my focus is on your play in THIS game. And OMGUS FoSing me for allegedly sheeping Darthe (of all people! lol) is not making you look any better in my eyes. I also find it interesting that I'm getting FoSed but Darthe isn't even though, under your consideration, your content so far doesn't warrant it.

 

 

Any other thoughts you have to share?

 

I quoted this one to say that I liked the bite in it. I was quite amused as I continued reading to see that I wasn't the only one.

 

 

I like this post of Nyn's.

 

Nyn is trending upwards for the bold.

 

I like this post. It's a tad much for a slight push like I was going for, but I like to see where you're coming from. 

 

+4?

 

/snip

 

 

 

More approval of Sooh criticism.

Let's see.. if I was to fake peek someone atm I think I would vanillager probably you, Clov... if I have a real peek though I'll save that for later and give you a bit more work in order to find it...

 

You may as well claim not cop after this post.

 

Unless you are, in which case great job covering.  But you aren't cause you're a wolf here.  You've yet to even address that, make a townie post or post anything really meaningful.  

 

Harsh. But I likewise cringed a bit when I read this.

 

/snip

 

Expressing support for the lynch and the idea that Sooh is a wolf, but still hasn't interacted with her directly.

 

 

 

 

I feel so confident in my town reads right now.

 
Guarantee you're misclearing someone.

Almost certain but it remains a good list based on what we know so far

 

 

 

I'm fine rolling into D2 after a Sooh lynch. I think her odds are decent of being a wolf here and I am just getting paranoid prematurely.

 

 

 

 

 

Sooh brings the fight to him and says he's been posting fluff:

 

 

/snip

 

I have been reading back AJ's posts, and he did come across as much more reasonable last time he stopped in. Now lately it has been mainly fluff which I don't know how to feel about. I was just massively duped by AJ in the previous game, so I'm fully aware he is capable of doing that. I was asking before what people thought was suspicious about AJ, but didn't get any responses yet. Hope I'll get that so I can analyze those. 

 

What posts of mine would you call fluff? If you want something clarified or explained more thoroughly just ask me and I will do my best.

 

What you are seeing is AJ in his aloof villager state. The game is early and I am casually pointing out things as they occur to me that may become more pertinent later on.

 

He replies with casual tone and reference to him being a villager, which could be deliberately wolfy. 

 

 

Sooh presses him for current reads, he responds but hedges on her read in particular, and mentions the prospect of valuable insight in one of her posts, later if she's a villager. ?TMI

 

I just meant that I haven't seen you really provide anything that I would describe as helping me to read you since you came back in today. Yesterday I felt I was getting more from you... Could you give me some current leans, please?

 

 

 

Verb is my villager peek so that goes without saying. Going off thread I think Nyn is on her villager game and I think Clov is too. Darthe is more likely to be a villager here based solely on numbers despite my suspicion of him earlier. Kaylee seems okay, she's making her observations that are accurate in the moment. I'd probably peek her just to confirm her because I think she's likely to make it deep into the game on the merit of not getting NK'd often in this roster and clearing her would be valuable later on in POE.

 

Cass might be light green for the moment. I appreciate Cass expounding more on her thoughts to show her perspective which I don't think she'd do as well if she were wolfing again.

 

Dice had his 'gut read' opener which I think by now I should probably consider more of a neutral movement at this point in our experience together. I'll need more from him. Leelou can fit into this category as well because I haven't seen enough from her to really place her outside of null. Tress would be here as well until she comes back more with her own thoughts.

 

 

 

I'm undecided on you atm. You've said some things that came across weird to me but I think you've made some decent posts as well. The one you talked about people ignoring / defending you as suspect could offer some valuable insight later on if you're a villager here. I agreed with some of your points.

 

 

 

Cory and Wombat I have as hesitant wolf leans for now. I feel like the way Cory is engaging those who suspect him is more in-line with how I would do things as a wolf although I admit that could just be my own personal projection on his play. Wombat is more of hunch I guess. I don't think any of the observations he's made couldn't be done as a wolf and I think there's some potential for distancing between him and Cory happening. Cory's post about them colliding as Mario Kart characters or whatever gave me that impression.

 

 

 

 

Talks about Sooh in recap of Nyn, doesn't provide reasons for his uncertainty on Sooh:

 

 

I'm gonna just give a recap of my catch-up right now and then get the quotes I wanna address or whatever afterwards.

 

 

 

Nyn is literally the most obvtown player at this point in the game. Like it hurts a little reading her posts. I'm not 100% sold on Sooh yet but I like the way Nyn is handling the situation. She's being reasonable to other player's suggestions/opinions but maintaining her suspicion and now looking to make connections off it. May be a bit premature for that but I think the motive behind it is good.

 

 

 

Cory if you are a villager this game then I'm sorry for getting to you earlier. If you aren't then I'm not sorry but for now I'm gonna let it go and spread my vision elsewhere.

 

Clov I haven't given up on you being a villager yet. Unfortunately I also have to admit that I've never personally seen you wolfing and I am going to seek advice on the subject just in case. I don't disagree that Dice isn't vote worthy at this point.

 

Kaylee still looking good. I like how she is responding to Cass in her confusing posts before this. If you actually take the time to figure them out I think she answers and clarifies well. The only reason I peek her at this point is because I don't want others mislynching her later in the game after I'm dead.

 

Cass's Wombat ISO/re-read thing felt sort of random. Don't know what that means right now but it stood out to me as out-of-place I guess when I started reading forward from my last post.

 

That's all that readily comes to mind atm but I'm gonna respond to specific things I found reading along now.

 

 

 

Here I don't like:

- That he takes his read of Nyn - a consensus Town read- emphasises her towniness in general terms and then comments only on the way she's handling Sooh.

- That he approves of Nyn's suspicion but discredits the looking for connections as 'premature'

 

 

Puts Sooh in the middle of his reads, states willing to lynch anyone in the grey.

Verb

 

Nyn

Clov

Kaylee

Cory

Darthe

 

Sooh

Tress

Dice

Wombat

Leelou

Cass

 

Would be willing to vote / lynch anyone in the gray at this time. Not the most rock solid reads yet but I should be able to flesh them out more once we get past a phase or two. 

 

 

Has Sooh closest to the green in his 'willing to vote/lynch' pile here, but when he votes her over a day later he says his reads haven't really changed that much and he still doesn't specifically mention what he dislikes about Sooh.

 

[v]Sooh[/v]

I'm comfortable moving here for toDay. My reads haven't changed all that much from where I was last night but I think Cass's effort is coming across in a good way. We'll see as things progress but I at least think she's bought herself more time. I'll miss EOD because I'll be at work and since the thread is closed for Night I'll just have to catch up again and wait for Day.

GLGL

 

Watching this space.