House of Cards

[Cass]

ISO of Verbal

 

Posts that involve Cass:

- Nudging her on why she thinks Darthe is wolfy.

- FoSing her for misrepping Cory.

- Unfolding his theory that Sooh and Cass couldn't be w/w or v/v, and there by tying their fate. ie whichever of the two ended up getting lynched D1, he was going to push the other on D2, thereby ensuring two mislynches in a row.

- More back and forth with Cass. Asks her for her top 3 scum reads off the hip.

- Votes Sooh, saying he hasn't seen anything from Wombat or Cass (who are the other two in his WTL) that looks scummier than Sooh. Says the vote on Sooh is mostly due to his emotional scarring from JN  (*cough* BS *cough*).... and personally?  I don't think Verbal put BOTH his scummmates in his D1 WTL. Because he'd run out of excuses pretty soon. No, his other scummate is either in his nulls or townie reads. Nyn guaranteed.

- At the beginning of D2 votes Cass, saying that like he said, in his mind, if Sooh flipped town that means Cass is scum.

 

 

Posts involving Clov:

- On day one: The first time he addresses Clov in the game is to ask his opinion about something Cory said ("I will never be lynched this game"). ie if it's something he'd say more as wolf or town.

- Offers a read list (from townies to scummiest): Dice, Cory, bewbs, AJ, Clov, Kaylee, Cass. I find the placement of Clov awkward. Why is he there? Up until now Verbal has had ZERO interaction with him, except that one time where he asked his opinion about Cory. That really sticks out to me.

 

 

Posts involving AJ:

- On day two the first time he addresses him. Says hi AJ. 

- Says he has had him as town but the switch of his read on him (from picking verb as seer cover to throwing him in his scum pile)  just as he was starting to get heat makes him have doubts about him. This could be either distancing or him trying to take advantage of me leaning on AJ for this read switch. Says that if he's misclearing someone, he thinks it's him I'm actually feeling like it's the second option. I think Verbal is looking for a townie to push.

- Further prodding of AJ, saying that he could be a wolf and that he switched on him and claimed VT to explain why he'll be alive another day and also to drive a (mis)lynch on verb tomorrow. Again, imo, this is more likely Verb trying to push a townie than distance from a teammate.

- Answers AJ's question of whether he thinks Wombat might flip scum here.

- Answers AJ's question of what people think of Wombat's interactions with Cory (I will add that during all of this, that's when Clov is prodding Kaylee).

- Throws a comment on how people who've been properly reading him as town are now changing their tune and how interesting that is. Again trying to soft FoS AJ, imo.

- Offers a read list (from townies to scummiest): Dice, Cory, bewbs, AJ, Clov, Kaylee, Cass. I find this a tad odd cause he was prodding AJ a ton but in the end has three people scummier than him. But then again this read list was provided after it was obvious he was getting lynched. 

 

 

 

 

I'm not going through the rest of the content from this point onward cause he already knew at this point that he was a goner. That's also why I'm not gonna give much importance to that read list he gave due to the timing of it (ie pure wifom). Sadly he didn't give a read list prior to that... as I think an earlier list would prolly be something I could maybe get something out of. This was provided for spew, imo. 

 

 

I like the way you break this up into players. 

 

Agree with all your points on me.

 

With Clov, the main difference I see to you is that even though he doesn't address Clov directly as often as AJ, he does follow Clov's lead in relation to pushing me D1, and runs with it using the 'can't be v/v' theory. I don't know if they'd work together that obviously as scum D1. Later he does the same thing with you over Sooh, and then D3 sheeps Clov again (onto Kaylee) even though he knows he's the lynch for the day.  On D2 he mentions having Clov as dark blue as possible without peeking, and then in the reads list you mention (which I'm not entirely sure isn't all WIFOM) he suddenly puts Clov in the PoE, but moves AJ up despite the light FoS at him the day before for the 180 on his read.

 

With AJ, I really get the gut feel that the posting is mostly just for the sake of interaction. The stance he takes on him in reads and stuff is more neutral/hedging, ready to go either way.

[Nynaeve]

AJ if you want to look individually at people and not make connections based on flips, that's up to you. I think it's lacking in the way of scumhunting, personally. But w/e.

[Andrej]

Right now Cass is ITT proving how Verb/Clov can't be teammates lol

 

Keep forging that AJ/Verb link though Cass - it'll be your saving grace.

[Nynaeve]

Do you guys want to lynch Cass first?  I wouldn't mind respecting Cory's last wishes. As I said, it's one or the other so the order doesn't make much of a difference to me.

[Cass]

Right now Cass is ITT proving how Verb/Clov can't be teammates lol

 

Keep forging that AJ/Verb link though Cass - it'll be your saving grace.

 

Right now I'm catching up and following my gut on you and hopefully presenting it all in a better way than I have the past few days. I haven't even ISO'd Clov properly yet and there are things that are standing out about his and Verb's interactions that make me uncomfortable voting him right now. Why lol at me for pointing out things that make him look less scummy than you?

[Nynaeve]

Gotta go do some stuff. Might be back later.

[Songstress]

I'm interested in hearing from Clov. Cass is here and presenting her thoughts ATM and should continue to do so as long as she can. We have time to figure this out.

[Cass]

Do you guys want to lynch Cass first?  I wouldn't mind respecting Cory's last wishes. As I said, it's one or the other so the order doesn't make much of a difference to me.

 

According to Cory's post we only have two mislynches, right? I may have been struggling the past few days, but really think we're right on AJ/Clov.

[Andrej]

That we do.

 

Cass the simple answer is that I'm not a wolf and I think you are more likely to be than Clov.

[Andrej]

We have seven alive at this point and one more wolf to go.

 

So yes, two mislynches and two NK's take us down to F3.

[Cass]

 

 

I'm going through Verbal's content. More so his early content and not all the spew he was laying out once it was apparent he was gonna get lynched. I'm not done yet but I'm gonna note that most of his initial content was going hard on Wombat (pun intended). And then he worked up the whole Sooh/Cass connection and while Wombat's train was building D2 he sat on Cass the entire time. Do you really think he would be trying to push a lynch on Cass if she was a teammate? It seems pretty apparent to me that he was trying to set her up.

 

He was prodding Cass here and there. The difference in how he handled her, compared to how he handled Wombat, is that he was actively trying to sway people to vote her which is why I think it's unlikely that they're w/w.

 

I see your perspective here but I want to add my input anyway. Verb proved that he already had a willingness to distance/bus his teammates as it shows with Wombat. The Sooh/Cass can't be v/v thing could just as easily be Verb showing knowledge of Cass's alignment before the fact. He didn't really push her wagon D2, did he? He just plopped down on it and instead the village were the ones who drove the wagonomics and got Wombat the wolf lynched. Parking a vote on a buddy is usually a pretty safe bet to do as scum in some situations. I just think the wolf team sort of let themselves get overpowered by the village and weren't able to drive a wagon elsewhere.

 

/snip

 

FWIW he did the same 'plopping a vote down and letting the village drive the wagonomics' with Sooh. With me, he followed Clov's questioning of me for my initial reads, and then planted reasons why he was going to vote either me or Sooh, knowing how Sooh would flip all of this on D1, while he was already claiming that Wombat seemed wolfy and later angles that Wombat was his number one suspect all game. That means he would have had to have been pushing/angling for a lynch of both of his teammates on D1, and I think there's a decent difference in the way he mentioned Wombat being lightly wolfy D1 and voted when it was obvious he was the lynch, compared to the way he set me up right from the start.

 

Splitting responses to this and the next bit up.

[Cass]

 

 

 

 

 

I'm going through Verbal's content. More so his early content and not all the spew he was laying out once it was apparent he was gonna get lynched. I'm not done yet but I'm gonna note that most of his initial content was going hard on Wombat (pun intended). And then he worked up the whole Sooh/Cass connection and while Wombat's train was building D2 he sat on Cass the entire time. Do you really think he would be trying to push a lynch on Cass if she was a teammate? It seems pretty apparent to me that he was trying to set her up.

 

He was prodding Cass here and there. The difference in how he handled her, compared to how he handled Wombat, is that he was actively trying to sway people to vote her which is why I think it's unlikely that they're w/w.

 

I see your perspective here but I want to add my input anyway. Verb proved that he already had a willingness to distance/bus his teammates as it shows with Wombat. The Sooh/Cass can't be v/v thing could just as easily be Verb showing knowledge of Cass's alignment before the fact. He didn't really push her wagon D2, did he? He just plopped down on it and instead the village were the ones who drove the wagonomics and got Wombat the wolf lynched. Parking a vote on a buddy is usually a pretty safe bet to do as scum in some situations. I just think the wolf team sort of let themselves get overpowered by the village and weren't able to drive a wagon elsewhere.

 

 

 

Working on Verb associations with others living players right now, but most likely voting AJ/Clov today.

 

Don't particularly like Clov's push at Kaylee yesterday, but feel like Verbal's addition there was wolfy and potentially meant to set him up. Need to go back and ISO both Clov and Kaylee since I haven't really looked at either of them much. Didn't like Clov's response to me D1, but still have a worse gut feeling about AJ based on D1/D2 and interactions I'm reading with Verb. Still need to look at Clov's vote on Sooh and see how it compares with AJ's progression.

 

This is where I'm at:

 

Dice

 

Bewbs

 

Kaylee/Tress

 

Clov

AJ

 

This is pretty much why you're going to remain a wolf in my eyes until one of us is dead this game. Your progression on me is terrible. Let's just completely disregard the fact that I have played a key role in finding and lynching two out of the three wolves. We literally just finished a game where we were wolves together and swept the other teams. At any point in that game did I openly attack or assist in driving a lynch on one of us? No. Instead I put in a lot of work ensuring the lynch was always outside of our group. The same premise would apply here. There were other directions that could've been moved in D2 to keep Wombat from getting lynched if I were a wolf. Yours for instance.

 

It's like you're stuck on me here and you don't really have any other direction to go in so you're just doubling down on outdated info from D1/D2. I notice now that Clov has conveniently dropped into your bottom 2 now that he's being raised as a suspect.

 

 

 

Clov voted me when he could've voted Verb and cased me. Felt to me like he was avoiding the lynch.

 

That lynch was inevitable with or without Clov's vote on it. I don't think it says anything one way or the other.

 

Posts involving Clov:

- On day one: The first time he addresses Clov in the game is to ask his opinion about something Cory said ("I will never be lynched this game"). ie if it's something he'd say more as wolf or town.

- Offers a read list (from townies to scummiest): Dice, Cory, bewbs, AJ, Clov, Kaylee, Cass. I find the placement of Clov awkward. Why is he there? Up until now Verbal has had ZERO interaction with him, except that one time where he asked his opinion about Cory. That really sticks out to me.

 

I would like to see this quote in the original context. Clov seems to be in the middle so I'm guessing that means he's null? If they had zero interactions up to that point having a null read 'fits' even if Verb is a flipped wolf.

 

 

 

 

1. WRT my progression of you, I've gone from: 

• Agreeing with you on leaving Seer cover to closer to EoD, to thinking you were suspicious for dropping that and your read of Darthe when I copped a fair amount of heat for questioning Darthe; to
• Thinking that of all the quick, early pushes on me for those reads, yours was one of the most contradictory and most likely to be worse; to 
• Agreeing with you that Sooh/I were probably good wagons because they might shed light on you amongst others in both cases for hopping on a potentially easy lynch; to 
• Putting you in the same boat as Cory: 'suspicious/wary, yes. Willing to lynch early, no'; to 
• Finding your removal of Darthe from the wolf PoE matched what Cory said is consistent with your play as Wolf; to 
• Studying progression on Sooh's train more closely and seeing that (along with Verb to a lesser extent) you stood out the most for your hedging, skipping a direct read of Sooh and focusing instead on approving of the way Nyn was handling the situation and the feeling that your vote was to push the lynch but otherwise you were maybe trying too hard not to be directly involved; to 
• Putting you, Clov, Verbal and Wombat as my bottom four and voting Wombat in the thunderdome but still finding you suspect; to
• Being confident that you/Clov are the final wolf, with a greater lean on you for all of the above.

How is that terrible? My suspicion of you started D1/D2 but apart from agreeing with you on leaving the Seer cover later in the day (which you later backed out of), I've been wary-suspicious of you the entire game, and pointing things out as I go along. I got distracted with Verb D3, but I was following the case on you by Nyn, and you were still right there in my PoE. I've pulled all of the quotes out and have them ready to post if you require.

 

 

 

2. The argument that you could have moved in my direction to keep Wombat from getting lynched if you were scum is weak though, given that Verb was already sitting with a vote on me and getting pretty much nowhere and you yourself said that parking a vote on a team-mate was a safe bet sometimes and you felt that the wolf team let themselves get overrun by the Town and weren't able to drive a wagon elsewhere. 

 

This is where I'm at and basically where my gut has been a lot of the game, and however scattered my approach to here, I don't see how that progression is bad. I have to look properly at Clov and I'll go over you again now I'm done with Verb spew (after sleep), but for now you're still my number 1.

[Cass]

That we do.

 

Cass the simple answer is that I'm not a wolf and I think you are more likely to be than Clov.

 

Fair enough, I'm in the same boat.

[Nynaeve]

 

Ok.

 

Here's a YOLO of where I currently have everyone at:

 

Tress

Bewbs

Kaylee

Dice

Cory

Leelou

Wombat

Verbal

Clov

AJ 

 

 

I'm out until this afternoon.

 

This read list is from 4 days ago. So Clov wasn't 'conveniently dropped to the end of the list just cause he's a lynching option now'.

[Cass]

 

Great points there Nyn. You're breakdown of Verbal's interactions with the three makes me feel better about AJ. Put that with the way Clov was pushing me yesterday and not voting Verb just makes him look that much more like a wolf.

 

That and he was also weird with me at the beginning when he was going on about me not giving him town vibes yet. Halli has been suspicious of him since.  Wombat also opened with me giving bad vibes. I think they might have tried to see if that could go anywhere. It didn't. And they both very soon after were loving on me since.

 

 

 

Though there was that subtle nudge of asking Halli and I why we voted Wombat. Heh.

 

 

I really need to do a proper ISO of Clov because the top bold is something that pinged me about him straight away, and I can't even remember the nudge about your vote for Wombat. Been up all night though, so will finish responding to the recent stuff and go back to it and AJ v. Clov after sleep.

[dicetosser1]

for me its either clov or AJ. ultimate tinfoil is on tress

 

 

vote clov

[Cass]

 

I don't have much of anything to ask you, really. I think I pretty much covered my concerns  over your content and your replies weren't terrible. Looking at you again with the context of Wombat and Verbal's flips and posts, I feel better about you and I think Clov is a lot more likely to be scum, since my ongoing conflict was between you and Clov. I also trust Cory's read of you, as well as Tress'. I think you're wrong about Cass, personally.

 

But.... we have plenty of time... if you'd like to talk to me about why you think Cass is more likely to be scum than Clov, I'm willing to listen. Though I'd prefer it if you also addressed it in relation to Wombat and Verbal's content. ie show me how the three being scummates fits together.

 

The game is probably going to come down to Cass/Clov lynches - which I'm fine with. I think your work has merit but I also think you're starting to look from the perspective the Clov is already confirmed scum when making the connections you are now. I know how it is though

 

Honestly I'm too lazy to go back and don't really have the time right now to pour through that content. I don't think any of the 'pushes' on Cass were ever that hard so ruling her out for that isn't wise imo. The wolves never really controlled a wagon at any point in this game, so Verb parking on Cass D2 isn't clearing by any means. It could've just been him waiting it out to see what else came available while also setting himself in the long run for 'voting' a wolf. Why Verb decided to distance/bus the way he did this game idk but that's him and not me.

 

I think individually Cass has been rather scummy herself. She's been late onto literally every wagon after it was already a foregone conclusion with essentially just a summation of what anyone else has already said. Her suspect lists have been pretty static throughout the game and the only changes come with players getting lynched/NK'd. There was also a weird and random ISO case on Wombat that came late D1, maybe D2, that I felt was really out of place and didn't understand what prompted it. There was also a lot of banter back and forth with Cory about how to be a villager instead of playing like one and finding/pushing suspects.

 

She has literally just been floating this whole game with her WOTs. She isn't even voting one of her bottom two at this point.

 

 

- I don't like the idea of hopping onto a wagon blind without being sure of the case myself, I usually only vote once a round, and me voting late is a null tell and happens every single lynch, every single game. 

 

- I disagree that my lists have been static, I've been questioning and progressing on my suspects in between defending myself and catching up with current events.

 

- The weird and random ISO on Wombat was weird and random, I give you that. What prompted it was me struggling for structure/trying to develop an actual scum hunting focus as opposed to just noting random things that stand out on gut/random contradiction ITT and tunneling on them. I decided reading every player one ISO at a time would be a better way to go. Wombat was simply at the top of the list. I swapped that out after and decided to try and follow vote train analsis/progression on Sooh votes instead. FWIW my current style is based on a mix of Cory's and your own suggestions: remove non-active players and analyse for interactions to see who's most likely working on a team.

 

- Floating has not been my intent this game and I hate the repeat FoS for that and my WoTs. I think I've made a decent effort to improve here, minus a bit in the middle where I got frustrated not knowing what I didn't know and feeling lost for how to scum hunt/overwhelmed. I don't want to go over this again.

 

- No, I'm not voting either of you right now. I'm leaning you, but to be fair I haven't applied the new system to your ISO, only Verb's, and I think it would be rash to vote you on that and gut/previous leans before I've really considered the relationships between you and Wombat and Wombat/Verbal/Clov / Clov himself.

[Cass]

H'okay. Agree to disagree.

 

Well, that's where I'm at. Probably not gonna be moving my vote but I'd still like to see Clov come in and defend himself - I won't do it for him.

 

I think a lot of you are giving Cass too much credit for being wordy - she made decent posts D1 when she was under pressure but since then she has basically faded and has no real direction in this game. Like I look at her posts and I just see text without driving force behind them. There's no will to push. She's just casing to look busy while the village drives all the wagons home.

 

This all relates directly to the second last point above. I'm back on the horse, not fading any more.

[Nynaeve]

for me its either clov or AJ. ultimate tinfoil is on tress

 

 

vote clov

 

So you think Cass is in her town range?

[Cass]

Multi-quoting cos I need to finish up and get the kid to daycare so I can sleep.

 

 

I'm interested in hearing from Clov. Cass is here and presenting her thoughts ATM and should continue to do so as long as she can. We have time to figure this out.

 

^ This. I'm finding it suspicious that he's hanging back after the big push on Kaylee at the last EoD. Also IIRC there hasn't been a straight Clov ISO done yet? I'll try to get to that after sleep.

 

 

We have seven alive at this point and one more wolf to go.

So yes, two mislynches and two NK's take us down to F3.

Ta.

 

 

 

 

Ok.

 

Here's a YOLO of where I currently have everyone at:

 

Tress

Bewbs

Kaylee

Dice

Cory

Leelou

Wombat

Verbal

Clov

AJ 

 

 

I'm out until this afternoon.

 

This read list is from 4 days ago. So Clov wasn't 'conveniently dropped to the end of the list just cause he's a lynching option now'.

 

Ty

 

for me its either clov or AJ. ultimate tinfoil is on tress

 

 

vote clov

 

Why?

[Cass]

Ok, I'm out. 

 

See you all after sleep.

[dicetosser1]

 

for me its either clov or AJ. ultimate tinfoil is on tress

 

 

vote clov

 

So you think Cass is in her town range?

 

 

yeah i do. like i said to cory im hearing natural cass in her posts

[dicetosser1]

 

 

for me its either clov or AJ. ultimate tinfoil is on tress

 

 

vote clov

 

Why?

 

Cause ive thought they were scummy all game? Cause Tress hasnt been very vocal and I cant point and say "thats town tress right there" ?

[Kaylee]

She has been vocal. She posted reads, gave recent thoughts did an ISO on Wombat... all that's being vocal. She always posts in quality not quantity.

[Nynaeve]

Dice, I get the tinfoil angle on Tress but i think it's very unlikely that scum would put aside seer hunting for shenanigans.