Avatar The Last Airbender Town and SK wins!

[Eldrick4221]

Yea. I went back and read it lol. Not an issue. Just was surprised is all.

[Sooh]

I'm already dreading the amount of work this post will take....

 

I wanted to go back to John Snow.

 

He made this big case on Seph early on, and continued to push for seph throughout D1. Now, I don't know how the mafia here thinks, but I would think as a mafia member you wouldn't openly go counterbussing each other on D1. That makes absolutely no sense to me. In Snow's reads list however I find that there are interesting points.

 

Half my colors didn't work. Right colors: 

1. Zander (mentored by Cory)-Gives a VT claim for no reason then disappears. 
2. Nolder-Useless posts. Has hardly been in the game. 
3. Eldrick
4. Sooh (mentored by Clov)
5. Not Bob-some more explication on your posts would be great, but feeling town vibes
6. Thane
7. Seph (mentored by Dice)-Need I rehash my arguments again?
8. Tress
9. AJ
10. John Snow-pffft, this guy is totally town. Duh. Like the cop vetted him and everything.
11. Ithi-feeling town here
12. Turin-gut feeling again

 

I would think that here in this case the scummates would be hidden. I should think he would mention them, so as not to be avoiding them, but I don't think bottom one is a team mate. Seph came in and made it relatively easy for Snow to push him for a lynch, so he jumped on there. He claims he re-read Seph's posts, but I find (quoted from memory) "He became scummy again around p21-22" to be a very unspecific argument.

 

I would guess he has split his team mates into the two groups in which he has the most players. One in the green group, one in the orange. 

 

Now, this is the point where I start subscribing to Tress' tinfoil theory. 

 

Let me explain why. I'll start with Ithi. 

 

I went back as far as the end of D1 and started reading with the flips in mind.

 

Here's what first caught my eye:

 

**snip**

 

I find it very difficult to believe anyone is town. I don't have anything on Snow as he's not someone I've been really paying attention to. What are the top three reasons he seems to be mafia?

 

**snip**

 

Now, stay with me... I know I just said that I think mafia try NOT TO avoid one another, but I just find it strange that she has no opinions at all after most of D1 is done and he has at least posted a list plus tried to jump on her previous case on seph.

 

 

**snip**

 

I find it very interesting that none of the trains that have occurred in this phase have gathered much traction and a relatively new one has appeared close to end of day.

That always makes me think I had it right maybe as I'm well known for pushing the lynch I want through ... but no one has really gone with any of my choices and have actually been persuading folks to back off. I still actually think aj and seph might be mafia.

I'd rather have a mafia lynched that a no lynch.

 

Also, what does this even mean? I'm not sure I get it...

 

Then Snow does his whole 'oh I'm not sure if seph is a bad guy... let me read again... oh unvote.... hold on no... revote'. Seph finds that suspicious and says so. 

 

**snip**

 

There's a word for you seph and it is 'git' lol

Wasn't he doing the posting while thinking. Voting. Saying he'd got it wrong. Saying oh crap I was right. Voting again.

That didn't seem like a planned thing. For one thing it drew attention to him. Of course it could have been a carefully scripted series of posts.

But now I'm wondering if that was snow ...

 

Interesting idea to bring up. Seems like a semi-defense for me reading in retrospect...

 

Then there's the whole "Sneaky hobbitses"-exchange, in which Seph and Zander are being accused of trying to push her lynch through after she said she was going to bed when really she was paying attention. The exchange itself didn't mean much, but it resulted in a character claim. What is strange to me about that is that at the time when she claimed there was really only two people voting her, and that was me and Zander. Seph was still voting Snow (I believe) at that point, and they would need to rally another five players to vote for her after that. Seems to me like a bit of a difficult task, but if she was afraid of her lynch going through then I guess she did what she had to do. It looked strange at the time. It still looks strange now. 

 

N1 arrives with nothing much happening. I will admit that I was for some reason displaying some real poor reading skills at said time and managed to misread/interpret both Tress and Ithi in their posts. 

 

 

If you're about to get lynched and you are mafia it's always good to go large.

After all. What's the worst that could happen right?


However I am town and not on a team with snow.

I'm still confident in my reads on aj. Seph went right back up there with his blatant absent ithi dynamic duo push along with Zander.

Tress is doing a great job.

Sooh gives me cause for concern

 

Just... it's there..

 

Why do I give you cause for concern? Because you're my suspect?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sooh]

*cont. read of Ithi*

 

After a brief D2, which I agreed with you should have been extended at least a little bit so we could have pushed possible team mates, but as he was approaching a lynch I didn't see you, nor anyone else, unvoting to expand the phase. It was inevitable for sure, but anyone on that lynch could have been team mates trying to make quick process of D2 to avoid any such conversation.

 

N2 is where you start pushing your character claim to the max. 

Also there's this:

 

 

I think there is a wolf in turin. Ithi. Tress. Maybe 2. Guarantee 1

I think a member of the Mafia team would post a list of three that contains at least one of their team mates. It's a town cred/distancing thing.

So if you're Mafia you probably just outed either tress or Turin as your team mate.

 

Makes me want to ask if this is your Mafia 101, seeing as when I posted something about mafia behavior earlier you said it was just a random thing and there were no particular rules as to how mafia does its things. Here you make it sound like a rule, regardless of Seph's alignment. 

 

 

**snip**

 

This is where you're starting to come unravelled. If you believe I'm Mafia you wouldn't say that I think you're Mafia. You wouldn't act all offended. You would state that I'm saying you're Mafia to try and look good myself.

You're saying that I think you're Mafia because you know that's what I genuinely do think. And the only way I could think you're mafia if is I was not mafia myself.

Therefore you know I'm not Mafia.

Which means you are.

**snip**

 

This is just one in a series of many posts in which some questionable logic is applied. This reminds me of how you can say someone is a rock, because rocks can't fly, and you can't fly, ergo you're a rock. It's just not even close to being a good argument. 

 

Regardless though.. I think posts saying "You feel upset because.." are clearly meant to trigger an emotional response, like the kinds you're not too fond of getting thrown at you. 

 

 

Aang is the Avatar.

The dude with the blue arrow on his head.

If you didn't know that why did you stop pushing on me and move elsewhere after I revealed that?

If you're Mafia, and I think you are, then my level of productivity is just fine.

 

Color me confused, but I didn't think you knew the source material? Of course you might have looked it up, but.... At the time you revealed that I believe Seph had his vote, and his push, on John Snow. He agreed with Zander on some things he found suspicious with you, so he might have decided to go with you later, but it didn't happen. He has stated several times this was because he was more suspicious of John Snow. 

 

For the record, your character claim doesn't change my read of you much. It might even make you look more suspicious after your constant pushing of it all through N2. I don't really understand why this is so important to you. 

 

 

 

Honestly who busses a teammate when there is no train on them. And tries to get them lynched for twenty pages. Your reasoning here is flawed as was it on aj.

It's called a Kivam's Gambit

It basically gives you Town Cred for the rest of the game. A useful thing if you think I'm out to get you Lynched

 

I'm confused. You were pushing AJ large parts of D1. Why would he continue to bus his team mate? I would think that was a terrible strategy.

 

 

[Sooh]

** cont. my suspects **

 

Now for my second suspect after the Snow flip. I'm still working off of Tress' tinfoil hat, which to me is making a lot of sense at the moment. 

 

Nolder

 

Again I started my read around the end of D1. Nolder pushed Turin as his greatest suspect because of a misread, and shortly before DL D1 he says he had to readjust his reads. He quickly votes Thane because he is "the next one on [his] list". 

 

 

who you looking at Nolder?

Well if we get one more person online John Snow and AJ are within range to lynch.

I'm not feeling bad about AJ and my reads on Snow are muddled due to earlier misunderstanding with Turin.

I was willing to hear a case on John Snow but no one really wants to post or link to one and I don't feel good about just voting him to achieve a lynch.

 

Currently I've voted where I feel most comfortable but I don't think we'll be able to get a lynch on Thane.

 

He doesn't want to vote Snow at this point because he hasn't heard a convincing case. That isn't so bad. I said a similar thing a couple of posts later. Then, 20 posts later he does vote John Snow, using the exact same wording as Turin.

 

I THINK this means he thinks AJ is town... 

 

Fine.

[unvote]
[V] Snow [/v]

 

Fine.

 

[unvote]

 

[v]John Snow[/v]

 

Seemingly both unwilling to vote him at that point. He even points out later that he's worried about taking blame for it if it's a bad lynch. Would look really good when you happened to catch mafia and WOW I didn't know!

 

When Snow claims Nolder is 2nd off his train after AJ. He even puts in this cute post: 

 

This exact same situation just happened on JN.

We let the claimed cop live and he nailed 3 scum in a row for the win.

A repeat would be fun.

 

 

I just had to put this in here because I find it extremely odd. 

 

That conversation was silly.

 

Mostly on your part Seph.

I get what you're saying (I disagree but I get it), however in a game like this unless you think the mod would just flip the script and make the main character bad and without any counterclaim Ithi is almost definitely town.

 

That said though it bothers me she brought all this up at night.

Like maybe she's trying to draw out a counterclaim to kill the real Aang?

 

Ithi when was the first time you claimed?

You said it a lot so I may have missed the first time.

 

Bold: Did you read what Tress said about this? it's in post # 938. If so, please give me your take on it... 

Italics: Interesting thought process. Again, with what Tress said in mind, I don't think it means that at all, but it's an interesting thought for sure. 

 

The whole case on Nolder is iffy at best at the moment. I can tinfoil into believing him scum, but I'm not confident in this read. I hope people can add to it or pick it apart. Either way I hope it helps moving thoughts on Nolder forward.

 

******

 

Last but not least... I have a couple of things about Turin that I wanted to flag. 

 

 

Town needs a lynch. Mafia will try to keep it from happening.


Currently willing to.lunch AJ. Zander, Nolder, Seph.


Come on town make this happen.

 

If these were the people you were willing to lynch, why did you vote Snow? I find that odd since nobody had made a very convincing case on him at the time and you didn't suspect him at all. 

 

Also this: 

 

 

I think there is a wolf in turin. Ithi. Tress. Maybe 2. Guarantee 1

Ooh, Seph just called Tress mafia.

 

only one way you can guarantee there is a mafia in this group. For you to KNOW who the mafia are.  Only one way for you to KNOW that. That you are mafia. 

 

 

It's one thing that you follow Ithi in all things. It's another that you're using the same shallow arguments. Do you really believe this?

 

 

 

[Ithillian Turambar]

Hi Sooh.

 

2 questions. Do you think I'm not Aang? How do you think Seph can guarantee there's at least one Mafia in his list of Tress, Turin and me?

 

Also the feel upset bit was because of the wow wow wow bit. Like it was outrageous I would think he was mafia.

 

Also with regards to not knowing the source material. I gave my character. I asked the same question many times. He didn't just say I'm sorry Ithi I don't know who that is until I asked in massive letters. He just didn't answer the question.

 

A little bit of googling is all it would take surely. No need to just avoid it completely.

 

 

Oh a third question. Do you not think it a little odd that Seph just slammed a few posts in about Tress being suspicious. I would class that as more being possible distancing.

[Sooh]

1. At the moment, with all the stuff I've gathered and the way my suspicions to you are, no, I do not believe you're Aang.

2. I think he can guarantee it with as much certainty in his own reads as I can guarantee there's mafia in my reads. 

3. Reads change. Perhaps he has noticed something in Tress that made him find her suspicious. In and of itself I don't find those statements too alarming. 

 

I will bring your points with me as I go back and read other people.

 

I was about to type up a post just now, but I'll just put it here. Right now my suspects are:

1. Ithi

2. Nolder

3. Turin

 

Those three are what I managed to go through with a fine tooth comb today. I am going back in tomorrow with hopefully fresh eyes to look at more people to see if I have anyone I feel are clear of suspicion since Snow's flip. 

 

I'm going on memory of the rest right now.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Oh ... you're giving me cause for concern because your tone in this game seems different to other games I've seen you play in. When you were a Serial Killer you were non threatening and blending into the background whilst being affable and agreeable.

 

In RTE's game you were Town and again you seemed pleasant and chatty and thoughtful in your postings.

 

In both of these games you were playing by yourself and only had your own thoughts and scenarios to content with.

 

If you're playing as part of a team you'll have the grand plan and plotting. With people suggesting things to day and actions to take, and this may make your tone change because it's a team idea that you're planning.

 

However I also have to take into consideration that your being mentored, and for some reason mentoring has changed from being just having a more experienced playing guiding your the generalities of how to play, what to consider and stuff like that, to them actually giving reads on players and even possibly suggesting how you should post and what you should be paying attention to. It's more like having a silent Hydra partner I think ... so maybe it's that additional voice making you seem different.

[Ithillian Turambar]

I most certainly am Aang. There is no-one in this game more Aang than me. I'm also Town.

[Ithillian Turambar]

As it is ... I'm still alive. Maybe that's because I'm not suspicious of the right people. I think if you were Mafia and Seph was Mafia you wouldn't be working so hard to get me Lynched tomorrow. You'd just kill me.

 

Maybe I need to look elsewhere.

 

 

Unless that's what you want me to do ...

 

[Turin Turambar]

** cont. my suspects **

 

Now for my second suspect after the Snow flip. I'm still working off of Tress' tinfoil hat, which to me is making a lot of sense at the moment. 

 

Nolder

 

Again I started my read around the end of D1. Nolder pushed Turin as his greatest suspect because of a misread, and shortly before DL D1 he says he had to readjust his reads. He quickly votes Thane because he is "the next one on [his] list". 

 

 

who you looking at Nolder?

Well if we get one more person online John Snow and AJ are within range to lynch.

I'm not feeling bad about AJ and my reads on Snow are muddled due to earlier misunderstanding with Turin.

I was willing to hear a case on John Snow but no one really wants to post or link to one and I don't feel good about just voting him to achieve a lynch.

 

Currently I've voted where I feel most comfortable but I don't think we'll be able to get a lynch on Thane.

 

He doesn't want to vote Snow at this point because he hasn't heard a convincing case. That isn't so bad. I said a similar thing a couple of posts later. Then, 20 posts later he does vote John Snow, using the exact same wording as Turin.

 

I THINK this means he thinks AJ is town... 

 

Fine.

 

[unvote]

[V] Snow [/v]

 

Fine.

 

[unvote]

 

[v]John Snow[/v]

 

Seemingly both unwilling to vote him at that point. He even points out later that he's worried about taking blame for it if it's a bad lynch. Would look really good when you happened to catch mafia and WOW I didn't know!

 

When Snow claims Nolder is 2nd off his train after AJ. He even puts in this cute post: 

 

This exact same situation just happened on JN.

We let the claimed cop live and he nailed 3 scum in a row for the win.

A repeat would be fun.

 

 

I just had to put this in here because I find it extremely odd. 

 

That conversation was silly.

 

Mostly on your part Seph.

I get what you're saying (I disagree but I get it), however in a game like this unless you think the mod would just flip the script and make the main character bad and without any counterclaim Ithi is almost definitely town.

 

That said though it bothers me she brought all this up at night.

Like maybe she's trying to draw out a counterclaim to kill the real Aang?

 

Ithi when was the first time you claimed?

You said it a lot so I may have missed the first time.

 

Bold: Did you read what Tress said about this? it's in post # 938. If so, please give me your take on it... 

Italics: Interesting thought process. Again, with what Tress said in mind, I don't think it means that at all, but it's an interesting thought for sure. 

 

The whole case on Nolder is iffy at best at the moment. I can tinfoil into believing him scum, but I'm not confident in this read. I hope people can add to it or pick it apart. Either way I hope it helps moving thoughts on Nolder forward.

 

******

 

Last but not least... I have a couple of things about Turin that I wanted to flag. 

 

 

Town needs a lynch. Mafia will try to keep it from happening.

 

 

Currently willing to.lunch AJ. Zander, Nolder, Seph.

 

 

Come on town make this happen.

 

If these were the people you were willing to lynch, why did you vote Snow? I find that odd since nobody had made a very convincing case on him at the time and you didn't suspect him at all. 

 

Also this: 

 

 

I think there is a wolf in turin. Ithi. Tress. Maybe 2. Guarantee 1

Ooh, Seph just called Tress mafia.

 

only one way you can guarantee there is a mafia in this group. For you to KNOW who the mafia are.  Only one way for you to KNOW that. That you are mafia. 

 

 

It's one thing that you follow Ithi in all things. It's another that you're using the same shallow arguments. Do you really believe this?

It actually is called the rule of three. If a mafioso puts out a group of three there is usually one mafia in the list. In fact if you took a survey you would find more people will say that you would expect a mafia player to have at least one other teammate as a suspect. They will usually never get around to pushing them but they will have them listed. 

 

Also, the above described interaction of two mafia teammates going hard at each other is precisely what Kivam's Gambit is. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

[Turin Turambar]

Oh I forgot the Snow question. I voted him because I did find him suspect earlier and I wanted to get an actual lynch. I preferred to lynch AJ but that wasn't going to happen because the people here were unwilling to switch. 

 

Snow wasn't in my last WTL list because Seph and Zander had moved up. But my vote was there to put him to L-2 I believe. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

I don't wanna do work on the weekend

 

 

 

 

 

[Sooh]

@ Ithi

I'm still learning, and yes, playing with a mentor does make me alter my game slightly.. To play smarter perhaps? Find new ways of reading and making cases. 

 

Anyway.. I'm going to do what I said... read other players with a fine tooth comb tomorrow before deadline falls on Monday. 

 

I hope I can get some other cases than my own too so I can see what everyone else is thinking, but I just thought I'd make the most of this long night phase. 

 

@Turin

Here's the thing though.. the 1 in 3 actually depends on whether or not you believe the person posting it is mafia. As of right now I don't believe that's the case with Seph, which means the "rule of three" doesn't apply. 

 

About the Snow thing, that's fair enough.

 

 

I don't wanna do work on the weekend

 

Are you serious?

[Turin Turambar]

1. At the moment, with all the stuff I've gathered and the way my suspicions to you are, no, I do not believe you're Aang.

2. I think he can guarantee it with as much certainty in his own reads as I can guarantee there's mafia in my reads. 

3. Reads change. Perhaps he has noticed something in Tress that made him find her suspicious. In and of itself I don't find those statements too alarming. 

 

I will bring your points with me as I go back and read other people.

 

I was about to type up a post just now, but I'll just put it here. Right now my suspects are:

1. Ithi

2. Nolder

3. Turin

 

Those three are what I managed to go through with a fine tooth comb today. I am going back in tomorrow with hopefully fresh eyes to look at more people to see if I have anyone I feel are clear of suspicion since Snow's flip. 

 

I'm going on memory of the rest right now.

It does seem a bit odd the the three you went through with a fine toothed comb are also your three suspects.

And that tomorrow you are only going to look through to see if there are any other players that you can clear. That looks like you predetermined what your results were going to be. Conf bias much?

 

3. So you're saying Nolder is mafia? Cause I can be pretty darn sure that Ithi isn't and can guarantee that I am not. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

Yep. It's Night and it's the weekend and smashing into each other about stuff's not really floating my boat. I only play Mafia for fun and don't really want to get all sucked in.

[Ithillian Turambar]

[Ithillian Turambar]

 

1. At the moment, with all the stuff I've gathered and the way my suspicions to you are, no, I do not believe you're Aang.

2. I think he can guarantee it with as much certainty in his own reads as I can guarantee there's mafia in my reads. 

3. Reads change. Perhaps he has noticed something in Tress that made him find her suspicious. In and of itself I don't find those statements too alarming. 

 

I will bring your points with me as I go back and read other people.

 

I was about to type up a post just now, but I'll just put it here. Right now my suspects are:

1. Ithi

2. Nolder

3. Turin

 

Those three are what I managed to go through with a fine tooth comb today. I am going back in tomorrow with hopefully fresh eyes to look at more people to see if I have anyone I feel are clear of suspicion since Snow's flip. 

 

I'm going on memory of the rest right now.

It does seem a bit odd the the three you went through with a fine toothed comb are also your three suspects.

And that tomorrow you are only going to look through to see if there are any other players that you can clear. That looks like you predetermined what your results were going to be. Conf bias much?

 

3. So you're saying Nolder is mafia? Cause I can be pretty darn sure that Ithi isn't and can guarantee that I am not.

 

I dunno Turin. I think that if someone has an idea that certain people are mafia then they're going to read through their stuff and see everything they do as mafia. Looking for confirmation of thoughts means you're actually having thoughts on who might be mafia.

 

And I don't think a mafia needs to do that lol.

[Sooh]

 

1. At the moment, with all the stuff I've gathered and the way my suspicions to you are, no, I do not believe you're Aang.

2. I think he can guarantee it with as much certainty in his own reads as I can guarantee there's mafia in my reads. 

3. Reads change. Perhaps he has noticed something in Tress that made him find her suspicious. In and of itself I don't find those statements too alarming. 

 

I will bring your points with me as I go back and read other people.

 

I was about to type up a post just now, but I'll just put it here. Right now my suspects are:

1. Ithi

2. Nolder

3. Turin

 

Those three are what I managed to go through with a fine tooth comb today. I am going back in tomorrow with hopefully fresh eyes to look at more people to see if I have anyone I feel are clear of suspicion since Snow's flip. 

 

I'm going on memory of the rest right now.

It does seem a bit odd the the three you went through with a fine toothed comb are also your three suspects.

And that tomorrow you are only going to look through to see if there are any other players that you can clear. That looks like you predetermined what your results were going to be. Conf bias much?

 

3. So you're saying Nolder is mafia? Cause I can be pretty darn sure that Ithi isn't and can guarantee that I am not. 

 

I started this game with an open mind like everyone else. As the days and the posts went by I ended up with a pool of suspects. Don't tell me you read everything without bias, because that is just not possible. Anyway.. I decided to read the three I felt worst about first, just to make sure I would do a good job of it. Now I have to wait until tomorrow, because I want to be just as thorough about the rest of the players. 

 

also 3. I'm happy you feel certain about that. Good for you. I am NOT certain you and/or Ithi aren't mafia, like I have stated. Please if you want me to buy your argument, back it up with something other than "I'm pretty darn sure". 

 

Yep. It's Night and it's the weekend and smashing into each other about stuff's not really floating my boat. I only play Mafia for fun and don't really want to get all sucked in.

This is part of the reason why people have been questioning your alignment. 

[Ithillian Turambar]

When I first started playing mafia I made me this siggy. All the new players reminded me of it.

 

[Ithillian Turambar]

Questioning my alignment isn't going to change it though, and I can't act all nervous and worried about it. Maybe I don't take mafia as seriously as some people do. There's a lot of people out there telling me what I always do as Town ... maybe you should just read my Games and see I basically do whatever I want to :)

[Kaylee]

Scenes are for flavor.

 

May wasn't too upset at the loss of her friend Azula. After all, she used fear to try to control her. May was not a woman of much emotion anyway. She walked around, looking for the Fire Lord's son, Zuko. He made her smile sometimes. She missed him. As she was walking around she ran into Koh the face stealer. No he's only able to steal your face if you show emotion so  she really wasn't worried. She tried to avoid him and go around him. He kept cornering her.

 

"Hello May" he said.

 

"Hello" she replied.

 

"I'm leaving here with you as my next victim" he said, with the face of a beautiful woman.

 

"You can try, nothing much bothers me" she told him.

 

"What about your secret love, Zuko?" he asked....

 

At that May smiled. It was the last thing she ever did...

 

Nolder - May, Mafia Goon has been killed.

 

 

Before May left she had done one last task for the Fire Lord. She had sought out Aang. She found him and turned him over to the Fire Lord. Fire Lord Ozai and Aang fought fiercely for hours. Both were doing well. It looked like it could go either way. Finally Ozai summoned lightening and used it to zap Aang. Aang wasn't able to recover before Ozai blazed him with fire. Aang was "well done".

 

Ithi - Aang, Vanilla Town has been killed

[Songstress]

Oh fabulous, tinfoil hat was 2/3 right.  I guess the dead thread isn't laughing at me as hard as I expected them to.

 

And SlackerNol was mafia.  Noted for future reference.

 

Apologies to Ithi, I was way off base on that one, but the mafia spared us the potential mislynch, so, yay mafia, you did good.

 

Recalibrating reads tomorrow.

[Turin Turambar]

Ithi

 

 

Well Sooh was right, she did have 1 out of 3. Kinda odd that it was the one she wasn't really pushing tho huh?

[Turin Turambar]

1. At the moment, with all the stuff I've gathered and the way my suspicions to you are, no, I do not believe you're Aang.

2. I think he can guarantee it with as much certainty in his own reads as I can guarantee there's mafia in my reads. 

3. Reads change. Perhaps he has noticed something in Tress that made him find her suspicious. In and of itself I don't find those statements too alarming. 

 

I will bring your points with me as I go back and read other people.

 

I was about to type up a post just now, but I'll just put it here. Right now my suspects are:

1. Ithi

2. Nolder

3. Turin

 

Those three are what I managed to go through with a fine tooth comb today. I am going back in tomorrow with hopefully fresh eyes to look at more people to see if I have anyone I feel are clear of suspicion since Snow's flip. 

 

I'm going on memory of the rest right now.

top section: 

1. what does your interpretations et al have to do with not believing She was Aang? I could see if you wished to pursue that Aang was given as a safe fakeclaim by the mod but Only someone cc'ing the character itself would validate disbelief of the character. 

 

2. That is the entire point. Town CAN'T GUARANTEE THEIR READS because we don't know. You aren't the cop because the cop is dead. You can be darn sure you are right but to say you guarantee it is posturing. This shouldn't even be in contention.

 

3. Reads do change but there is usually some progression or at least some reasoning given when they do. Seph's suspicion of Tress seemed pretty out of the blue.

 

 

But congrats you sussed Nolder.  So your guarantee came true after all.