[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[hazelkrs1]

 

 

 

i need to head to work so

 

 

They aren't mutually exclusive. I know when I'm being deceitful I'm the sort who considers the lay of the land, so my paranoia would be less obvious.

 

 

this. it ties into thoughts from marlfox so i cant explain.

 

 

##vote sili

Ugh @ this vote.

Did WE just do that?

Fwiw you're trending slightly upwards for me. If you vote DPR with me and he flips scum I'd prob put you even higher on my POE

[Stelio Kontos]

 

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info...

Nobody cares, Kivam. Just pretend we've all played a game or two of mafia before and that we already know what happens after a lynch. Cool? Cool.

 

 

Makes sense, considering Stelio just asked what info could possibly come from a townie lynch. 

 

 

 

Yeah, I think someone needs to learn a bit of nuance.  And that person is not me.

 

That said, ok, I'll bite: we lynch a villager, with say 10 votes.  What did you learn?  (Warning: this question is a trap.)

[hazelkrs1]

 

 

 

 

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info...

Nobody cares, Kivam. Just pretend we've all played a game or two of mafia before and that we already know what happens after a lynch. Cool? Cool.

Makes sense, considering Stelio just asked what info could possibly come from a townie lynch.

 

Yeah, I think someone needs to learn a bit of nuance. And that person is not me.

 

That said, ok, I'll bite: we lynch a villager, with say 10 votes. What did you learn? (Warning: this question is a trap.)

[Stelio Kontos]

 

A random aside, by the way: I'm not really happy with the talk about "lynching people for information" -- ever, really, but especially on day 1.  Like, if you lynch a villager, what information do you expect to get other than "welp, they flipped villager even though a significant number of people, certainly including a few villagers because that's how math works, thought he was wolfy"? 

 

How about we just lynch the wolfiest people and hope they flip wolf?

 

Assuming you mean that question honestly rather than playing it off, here's what I look for:

1) Lynchfuel - was there a moment when the lynch was subtly kicked into high gear, by a vote or an argument?  Can find scum here with more regularity than randomness would allow

 

2) Competing trains - who else was on the block, and were they scum (info that might not be immediately apparent D2, but may become so later)?  If so, look for scum shifting momentum away from a teammate and towards the other candidate, even if not necessarily defending the teammate in any obvious way; and, in contrast

 

3) Throwaway votes - especially where both trains are on innocents, I look for people hanging out with votes in odd places, candidates who, by near day's end, stand no realistic chance of getting lynched.  Got to take into account people who simply weren't around EoD when an early vote became throwaway (if everyone on Arsis moves to me, and someone who shows up only after deadline is left as the last vote on Arsis, that's circumstances, not throwaway), but other than that, people who waste voting opportunities are often scum looking to stay "clean" by not being involved in lynching a townie.  That's even more true when both the top options were townies.

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info, and those pieces of evidence aren't exactly fool proof.  But "welp, they flipped villager, who knows" is not the only deduction to be made from an innocent flip, and over time, they can accumulate into real solid evidence.

 

 

OK, I needed to read back.  Longer reply incoming -- just posting this to hopefully prevent a snark-fight.

[Leelou]

 

 

i need to head to work so

 

They aren't mutually exclusive. I know when I'm being deceitful I'm the sort who considers the lay of the land, so my paranoia would be less obvious.

 

 

this. it ties into thoughts from marlfox so i cant explain.

 

 

##vote sili

Ugh @ this vote.

 

Did WE just do that?

 

 

It is a bad vote. 

[Leelou]

 

 

 

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info...

Nobody cares, Kivam. Just pretend we've all played a game or two of mafia before and that we already know what happens after a lynch. Cool? Cool.

Makes sense, considering Stelio just asked what info could possibly come from a townie lynch.

 

Yeah, I think someone needs to learn a bit of nuance. And that person is not me.

 

That said, ok, I'll bite: we lynch a villager, with say 10 votes. What did you learn? (Warning: this question is a trap.)

 

 

Griefy, eres tu? 

[Tommyrod]

Please no anti-American fascism ITG

[Darthe]

 

 

 

i need to head to work so

They aren't mutually exclusive. I know when I'm being deceitful I'm the sort who considers the lay of the land, so my paranoia would be less obvious.

 

this. it ties into thoughts from marlfox so i cant explain.

 

 

##vote sili

Ugh @ this vote.

Did WE just do that?

Fwiw you're trending slightly upwards for me. If you vote DPR with me and he flips scum I'd prob put you even higher on my POE

 

 

My vote isn't a bargaining chip.  Regardless, even if I were faking my view (not saying I am) I wouldn't vote DPR today unless I really strongly thought him mafia so that I could keep my cover up.

[Cass]

OMG I FOUND IT! Went to your profile, searched posts only. Duh. OK. 

 

 

 

 

Was mid recap when DM went down.  Likely don't have time to finish them before deadline, so I'm just going to reply to a few direct questions from Cass and Andrej, then actually work for a bit; will post more if I can.

 

 

Basically after a review, I can't help but feel that Kiv really could be scum. Like DPR, his posts in general are well placed in the context of the game, but they also have a great mix of what I'm interpreting as truth and then a twist of scum. Kiv has been doing a great job of 'buddying' me in early threads and providing distraction (especially from the heat on Yates and DPR) as well as adding in general fluff along the way. I still like his recap posts and am definitely learning useful things through them , but... they’re not really ADVANCING the game, in a sense. And it makes me wonder if this is then mostly for distraction? (Don't stop them though, Kiv, they're pretty handy for catch-ups).

 

But I've been considering that posting these recap posts would make a handy tactic from a scum view too, since it has the advantage of winning emotional thanks points from Town struggling to keep up with the flow (worked on me) and it has the advantage of being able to carefully push a bias, all with that emotional thanks on board. This strikes me as important.

 

 

 

Of course I could be scum, and of course the recaps are very advantageous for me as scum - like I said earlier, I play my scum and town games exactly the same way; I do recaps in each, push in each, info-lynch Day 1 in each (though I'd really rather not do that as scum, it would be way too obvious a tell to avoid it).  So you're on the right track here, thought process wise (though the conclusion happens to be off in this particular game): DO NOT TRUST ME. EVER. (yes, even when I tell you not to trust me).  Or anyone else.  Play your best game, make your best choices, but make sure that it's because they're your choices, and not just agreeing with someone you trust.

[spoiler

Back to a bit of general mafia teaching: You need to take your insight on scum play to the next level.  Do you know what a WIFOM is?  Comes from the best scene in movie history, and stands for "Wine In Front of Me":

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9TRMQwMNnY

 

 

Now think through what a talented scum player would do with recaps if they expect to be caught as scum and have the recaps re-read in that light. And THEN think through what a talented scum player WHO WAS REASONABLY COMFORTABLE THAT HE WOULD NOT BE CAUGHT UNTIL QUITE LATE IN THE GAME, such as yourself, would do with recaps on Day 1 - amiright?... That's what brought me to that 'question'.

 

Like I said, posting recaps is a null tell for me, because I do it regardless of alignment given their utility to me in either alignment.  Use them but don't trust them, and if you are ever playing a game as town when I've flipped scum, ignore them completely rather than trying to mine them for clues - because when I'm scum, I poison both the glasses

OK, the first red stuff - granted. That's what I'm going for. The big red stuff - that's my real concern here- because it's exactly what someone playing SCUM in THIS game would say, as a "lesson" IN THIS GAME. Arrrgh!!    AmIrightagain?

 

*Again - a big thanks for general teaching. I really like this, because it fills me in on stuff my lack of experience means I'm missing. Even if it turns out to be mostly padding that you're using as scum to fill the thread (seeming less likely, but meh :P ). Anyway. No. I don't know what WIFOM is - I tried googling it and nothing made any sense. I'm annoyed now that I didn't find this post earlier and have time to properly look at that link, but rest assured - I will probably NEVER "trust" that you or anyone are Town.

 

 

 

Also, for some reason (similar to DPR) - although I feel I've been fairly active and contributing some thoughtful stuff (perhaps this is just because my brain has been going a million miles an hour on no sleep for the last however many days?),  there’s very little mentioned in Kiv's recaps about my contributions. He comments about me showing up and disappearing, and comments on things other players have said about me (and what he says in relation to these things IS true), but, after the initial buddying tone, REAL thoughts on me and what I've been putting down are missing although they're there for other players. Seems like basic misdirection.

 

 

Why is this commentary missing? Is it because I’m close to being on the money, and therefore safer to avoid?

 

LOL - no.  It's because I'm only up to page 37 in the recaps, and you hadn't posted any content yet.  Right now, you're playing like either a very good new mafia player as town or well coached/naturally talented scum; you are coming off as town trying hard to piece the puzzle together, which means I'll treat your thoughts the same way I'm suggesting you treat mine: I ain't gonna trust them, but I'll sure as hell use them. LOL - NOW YOU'RE ASKING ME TO TRUST YOU? (That you were only up to page 37 there?  ). Hell, I know that this is plausible, but true? Meh. I guess then I have to find a way to use them. Wanna tell me how?    

 

 

The tissues were not. They sparked my curiosity.

 

Heh.  I strongly dislike emo play for many of the same reasons I hate arguing politics with people who turn everything into a personal slap fight; it kills the debate, does nothing to advance the ball, and if left unchecked, takes all the fun out of the exercise.  (Side note - come join the convos on the D&D board ... you seem like you'd both enjoy it and be a valuable contributor).  So I tend to come down hard on it when it happens. RE the stuff in red- So why'd you play to it with more?? I don't associate tissue pics with the way I'd seen you play til there. Or with 'coming down hard'. I associate it with a possible attempt at lightening the mood and winning unwary, emotional town favour. Which, In fact it kind of makes it more likely that it *was* worth noting... in case it was a tactic you were using as scum.  And the rest of this is fluff that does nothing to stop me thinking you posting the tissues was strange.  

Pleeeeeease don't tempt me with D&D right now. *Hides* Truly, the strategy here is enough for now, and, contrary to my addictive personality and my compulsive posting in this thread, I'm actually sposed to be living RL too, sometime. *cries*

 

 

Why is lynching inactive people (Praya) a better idea than going with your gut against Sili?

 

1) It's not (hence my vote on Sili after re-reviewing the recaps);

 

2) It's not about lynching an inactive, it's about lynching Arsis (who Praya replaced and who is at the heart of nearly as many interaction-webs as Sili, including some with Sili).  That Praya is relatively inactive means that if he's town, he's probably not going to be much of a contributor anyway, which mitigates the loss if he flips town.

 

THANK YOU! This will potentially be very helpful for me tomorrow in my analysis of Sili. Now. Test time, FOR YOU. If you're willing to vote Sili after a re-review of the recaps (as I was). Are you willing to do a recap and vote with me on DPR? And don't give me that 'I want one more sultry night' or whatever-it-was thing I saw somewhere along the line - because to me that was way too emotive and dismissive for your mind, and that, in context, SCREAMED OF YOU PROBABLY BEING SCUM. PLEASE. If not, could you please, very linky-and-specifically explain your top reads for scum and why you think DPR is likely Town.

 

Basically, at this point, I'm forced to think that if you don't vote with me it's another very strong indicator that you're Scum. Because I have next to no doubt in my mind that DPR is. Things just don't add up. I can't see him playing Town but not supporting Town the way he has, and I definitely can't see him dumping all over me like he has if he, like me, is Town. Which leaves Scum, or Town that-is-not-town. Which means he needs to go, and soon. IMO. I know you're gonna make up your own mind. 

 

 

 

 

How did you go with your recaps - any further thoughts here?

 

Basically, pulled them together in one post, then ran "highlight all" searches in Firefox on poster names to start to map out connections.  That's what confirmed Sili for me as the top info lynch, followed by Arsis/Thane/Darthe in roughly equal proportion through pg 34.

 

Skipped because I have no idea what this means. 'highlight all', 'poster names' it's all gibberish to me. And the rest should be addressed with the stuff above.

 

 

 

 

*Caught up to page 65, Post #1290**

 

RECAP OF THOUGHTS / CURRENT LEAN ON KIV (as potential SCUM).

 

Basically after a review, I can't help but feel that Kiv really could be scum. Like DPR, his posts in general are well placed in the context of the game, but they also have a great mix of what I'm interpreting as truth and then a twist of scum. Kiv has been doing a great job of 'buddying' me in early threads and providing distraction (especially from the heat on Yates and DPR) as well as adding in general fluff along the way. I still like his recap posts and am definitely learning useful things through them , but... they’re not really ADVANCING the game, in a sense. And it makes me wonder if this is then mostly for distraction? (Don't stop them though, Kiv, they're pretty handy for catch-ups).

 

But I've been considering that posting these recap posts would make a handy tactic from a scum view too, since it has the advantage of winning emotional thanks points from Town struggling to keep up with the flow (worked on me) and it has the advantage of being able to carefully push a bias, all with that emotional thanks on board. This strikes me as important.  

 

Also, for some reason (similar to DPR) - although I feel I've been fairly active and contributing some thoughtful stuff (perhaps this is just because my brain has been going a million miles an hour on no sleep for the last however many days?),  there’s very little mentioned in Kiv's recaps about my contributions. He comments about me showing up and disappearing, and comments on things other players have said about me (and what he says in relation to these things IS true), but, after the initial buddying tone, REAL thoughts on me and what I've been putting down are missing although they're there for other players. Seems like basic misdirection.

 

Why is this commentary missing? Is it because I’m close to being on the money, and therefore safer to avoid?

 

I'm not asking this just because I’m personally curious -I am curious, but it's more than that, it’s mostly because I’m a noob and therefore naturally a ‘wild card’ to the game. In my mind, it would make sense that an experienced player, whose game play relies a lot on recapping and offering opinions on things would have had more to say about the way a newbie played and where they had them in their reads – at least as often as they did for other members of the game, but quite possibly more.

 

Example of most recent recap, including questions to me at the top/in the buddying stage, and then (where evaluation of my input is concerned) nothing of value thereafter, is here.

 

On top of this, like DPR, Kiv seems to be avoiding interacting with people that are calling his allegiance into question. Example of post from AJ here. 

 

It smells like scum 

 

@KIV / EVERYONE -  Thoughts?/Rebuttals?

 

 

Some of the random things that made me suspicious. (Thoughts and questions to be answered included). Kiv, please weigh in? I think your answers to some of these are also important to the Town... 

 

 

 

FYI, there are a few of us basically soaking up all the oxygen right now, and I am getting very, very leery of our coasters

Coming directly after a post where you make light of random nothings and potentially go for an emotional appeal to Town by posting a pic of tissues (link)… This looked odd and has a huge possibility of Wolf to me. Because, while on the surface it is valid (I agree people, POST!), PRACTICALLY speaking, I feel like it was ultimately an attempt to change the subject. I agree with the stuff you said to Des at the end of 1101 (same link as above), but you would have said that playing either way, and that is very consistent with what I've seen of your play so far so it doesn't really worry me. The tissues were not. They sparked my curiosity. And then a convenient change of subject? It's too early for me to tackle you but ... I think I'm pinging you now too...

 

 

 

This is going to sound absurd but I need to reread my recaps before giving a solid answer.  My gut (which isn't so much my gut as my memory of who was defended/defending/shifted/shifting) says Sili, but it could also be Darthe or Arsis (Praya now, but since he hasn't bothered playing, it's all Arsis [in fact, if it's a close call after re-read, I may be amenable to a policy-lynch of Praya given: (a) suspicions generated by Arsis; (b) the half-remembered connections; and © the odds that if he's a townie, we wouldn't be losing anything valuable anyway]).  Other info targets would be Yates and Des, but they are lower on my list, Yates because he's probably been dealt with by too many players to provide much of a focus and Des because of the same thought process in the opposite direction; he's so all over the place that there are likely links/breadcrumbs to half the game in his posts.

Why is lynching inactive people (Praya) a better idea than going with your gut against Sili?

 

 

 

Crap - the problem with responding from memory and forgetting the player list.  Thane.  Thane probably slots in very high on the "info lynch" scale given the focus on him earlier and the responses to it.  Might even be the number 1 info play.  Really have to review those recaps once I get home.

The post seemed meh. Could be that I'm wondering if you and DPR are actually the number 1 play..? Don't answer that, I know it could. How did you go with your recaps - any further thoughts here?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Omg. 5:23am and done. This is why I don't need you inviting me to D&D.

 

FYI, for now, I still DEFINITELY do NOT trust that you're NOT scum 

[Darthe]

I'm gone in a half hour.  Prob won't be back more than for a minute or two until 830 or 9.

 

[unvote][v]##Dice[/v]

[Cass]

@KIV RE POST 1684.

 

Sorry I forgot to spoiler out the vid.

 

^Sus you is red. My comments are in blue

[Kivam]

 

 

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info...

Nobody cares, Kivam. Just pretend we've all played a game or two of mafia before and that we already know what happens after a lynch. Cool? Cool.

 

 

Makes sense, considering Stelio just asked what info could possibly come from a townie lynch. 

 

 

 

Yeah, I think someone needs to learn a bit of nuance.  And that person is not me.

 

That said, ok, I'll bite: we lynch a villager, with say 10 votes.  What did you learn?  (Warning: this question is a trap.)

 

Thanks, Admiral Akbar. Impossible to answer without context. Who is the villager?  Are any of my thoughts on anyone else based on an "if X is scum, then Y probably is too"?  If so, those issues go away, obviously, since the condition precedent never happens.  What do the competing trains look like?  With the current setup, assuming today's lynch comes up town, I'm taking a hard look at whoever wasn't lynched (after adjusting for interactions, since Sili and Arsis were pretty inter-involved early on), and then deduce things based on how they seem/flip (depending on whether I think both trains were townies or one was scum) as per my prior post.  How did we get to 10 votes?  There's literally no way to give you a paint-by-numbers response to a hypo that vague, and it's complicated by the Hawthorne effect coming out of my earlier post about what I look for.

[Kivam]

 

 

 

 

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info...

Nobody cares, Kivam. Just pretend we've all played a game or two of mafia before and that we already know what happens after a lynch. Cool? Cool.

Makes sense, considering Stelio just asked what info could possibly come from a townie lynch.

 

Yeah, I think someone needs to learn a bit of nuance. And that person is not me.

 

That said, ok, I'll bite: we lynch a villager, with say 10 votes. What did you learn? (Warning: this question is a trap.)

 

 

Griefy, eres tu? 

 

 

[Stelio Kontos]

 

A random aside, by the way: I'm not really happy with the talk about "lynching people for information" -- ever, really, but especially on day 1.  Like, if you lynch a villager, what information do you expect to get other than "welp, they flipped villager even though a significant number of people, certainly including a few villagers because that's how math works, thought he was wolfy"? 

 

How about we just lynch the wolfiest people and hope they flip wolf?

 

Assuming you mean that question honestly rather than playing it off, here's what I look for:

1) Lynchfuel - was there a moment when the lynch was subtly kicked into high gear, by a vote or an argument?  Can find scum here with more regularity than randomness would allow

 

2) Competing trains - who else was on the block, and were they scum (info that might not be immediately apparent D2, but may become so later)?  If so, look for scum shifting momentum away from a teammate and towards the other candidate, even if not necessarily defending the teammate in any obvious way; and, in contrast

 

3) Throwaway votes - especially where both trains are on innocents, I look for people hanging out with votes in odd places, candidates who, by near day's end, stand no realistic chance of getting lynched.  Got to take into account people who simply weren't around EoD when an early vote became throwaway (if everyone on Arsis moves to me, and someone who shows up only after deadline is left as the last vote on Arsis, that's circumstances, not throwaway), but other than that, people who waste voting opportunities are often scum looking to stay "clean" by not being involved in lynching a townie.  That's even more true when both the top options were townies.

 

Sure, lynching scum would give us more info, and those pieces of evidence aren't exactly fool proof.  But "welp, they flipped villager, who knows" is not the only deduction to be made from an innocent flip, and over time, they can accumulate into real solid evidence.

 

 

I don't even disagree with any of this, and yet I contend that "we lynched person X on day 1, he was a villager, that means on d2 we can conclude..." is often a sentence completed by a lot of things that it shouldn't be.

 

I'll leave 1) alone because I kind of don't know what to say about it -- it's not wrong, exactly, but it feels very game-dependent, and in this game it kind of feels like we don't have one stupendous lynch option let alone two, so I don't think it applies very well.

 

2) is obvious, but depends a lot more on the competing wolf wagon than it does the particular villager, and you get pretty much the same information by lynching them d1 than you would later anyway :p

 

3) is again kind of game dependent; I'd rephrase it as "when you have v/v wagons, wolves are more likely to be content and inactive so as not to rock the boat", although when you have solid v/v wagons that's a really really easy thing for wolves to exploit anyway.

 

When you say "lynching for information", I assume (perhaps wrongly) that you essentially mean "there are a lot of people that have strong opinions on this person or interactions with them, let's find out who among them is right" -- which is fine and dandy, except that I think you are grossly overestimating the meaningfulness of people's low-information "decisions" on d1 when you do that.

[Cass]

^Don't know why but this post is sketching me out.  

[Leelou]

Kiv -

[Cass]

 

 

 

i need to head to work so

 

They aren't mutually exclusive. I know when I'm being deceitful I'm the sort who considers the lay of the land, so my paranoia would be less obvious.

 

 

this. it ties into thoughts from marlfox so i cant explain.

 

 

##vote sili

Ugh @ this vote.

 

Did WE just do that?

 

 

It is a bad vote. 

 

 

Then vote with me on DPR?

[Stelio Kontos]

Stelio is very alluring.

 

I'd watch out.  He's as mean as he is Greek.

[Tommyrod]

Stop breaking the pages for mobile users you hooligans

[Nynaeve]

Kiv is not getting any love tonight. He's been impertinent.

[Leelou]

 

 

 

 

i need to head to work so

 

They aren't mutually exclusive. I know when I'm being deceitful I'm the sort who considers the lay of the land, so my paranoia would be less obvious.

 

 

this. it ties into thoughts from marlfox so i cant explain.

 

 

##vote sili

Ugh @ this vote.

 

Did WE just do that?

 

 

It is a bad vote. 

 

 

Then vote with me on DPR?

 

Why would I do that when Dice is the one that just made a bad vote? 

[Nynaeve]

 

Stelio is very alluring.

 

I'd watch out.  He's as mean as he is Greek.

 

 

Noted >.>

[Darthe]

Dice scum meta maintains that he does little and speaks less.  

[Leelou]

What is wrong with DM today? 

[Darthe]

Hemorrhaging.