[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[csarmi]

He seemd on edge for no obvious reason imo

Was he? What do you think that means?

[Kivam]

 

How to catch them? Evidence, DPR and Kiv are good, but they make slips too. With the new evidence of all the dead people, especially yates, go back and read how they interact with them (and others). Looking at Wombat is A safe bet and to be encouraged, but don't tunnel in on him, look at everyone else too.

 

Kivam's accusation of Wombat is also of him being the SK, not scum. While good to get rid of them, scum are more important. Dig into Wombat for your own reasons, but not for Kiv's.

 

 

I'm calling sever BS on this.  The SK has a nightly kill all to himself; if we take him out, we have fewer deaths.  The Scum have their factional kill and a N2 vig, and that's it.  Unless we lynch the N2 vig today (a 1/3 shot even on top of the odds that we manage to find an actual wolf), lynching a wolf doesn't mean fewer town deaths until we take them all out.  With only 3 wolfs left, we have a strong numbers advantage - would much rather preserve it by taking out a SK early than moderately enhance it by taking out a wolf. 

 

This is simple math, btw.  Assuming we take out the SK today and our next wolf, say, Day 4, we'll likely have 2 townies shot tonight (Scum factional and vig), then 1 townie shot N3 (factional) for a total of 3 dead townies).  Do it in reverse, and we likely have the same number of townies killed by the wolfs and potentially 2 more dead townies from the serial nights 2 and 3 (odds that he hits a wolf are low, only 3 left out of 16 players). 

 

The only way killing scum before serial doesn't hurt us in the death count, other than getting lucky and having the SK kill scum for us or vice versa, is if we nail them back to back; the longer the spread between scum and SK, the worse it gets.  So while we definitely shouldn't be ignoring wolves to flail around after potential SK targets, if there's a legit case on a serial potential, that takes priority IMO.

 

Anyone disagree?  If so, why?

 

Ahem ... severe BS.  Not sever.  That would be different

[DPR]

Does anyone remember who was prodding Lee about possibly being the SK?  I can't find it in her posts.

 

Who is Lee please.

[DPR]

*facepalm*

 

Nevermind. Never heard her called Lee before.

[Nynaeve]

 

Why are people wondering why Kivam and DPR haven't been NKed instead of wondering why Leelou and Stellio were? lol

 

Leelou could be because of her experience with some of the old hags. She might have been considered a threat. Or possibly because quite a few were townreading her, but I'd hardly say she was a consensus townread. So odd choice. No idea why Stellio. I mean he was being townread by some (if I remember right) but he hasn't had much interactions.... maybe a flip that doesn't give info?

Good question, but keep in mind that it's possible that one was killed by the SK or Vig.  We only had 3 kills last night instead of the expected 4 (Scum factional, Scum Vig, SK, Vig), so either there was a double tap (one player targeted twice), Stelio managed to save someone with his jailkeep last night, or scum roleblocked the SK or Vig. 

 

We know Yates was a SK/Vig kill, obviously, which means at least one of Leelou and Stelio were targeted by scum.  But we don't know whether both were, or what it means ... yet.

 

For instance, Leelou or Stelio could have been targeted by a SK afraid they could peg them (for Leelou, this screams VerBarm or Wombat, to me, especially after Barm's "no, ignore the SK, let's just focus on wolves right now" post and my suspicions on Wombat's changed play.  Don't know enough about Stelio to speculate).  Or it could be a low information kill.  Or it could be that their reads were right and scum was eliminating a danger.  Or it could be that their reads were dead wrong and scum wanted to plant the idea they must have been onto something, to lead us to wrong lynches.

 

We just don't have enough information yet to make informed judgments from the fact that they are dead; we're trying to solve a 1,000 piece puzzle when we can only see 10 of the pieces.  But we will get more pieces as days go by.

 

 

Good points

[Thane Vakarian]

 

He seemd on edge for no obvious reason imo

Was he? What do you think that means?

 

2 options:

1) townie hoping to do the right thing and not be NK'd

2) wolfing around so the leads are less clear. 

 

Both are possible, but i think Wombat should be experienced enough to keep his head together EOD. That's why he seemed off for me.

[Nynaeve]

 

Does anyone remember who was prodding Lee about possibly being the SK?  I can't find it in her posts.

 

Who is Lee please.

 

 

 

*facepalm*

 

Nevermind. Never heard her called Lee before.

 

 

 

LMFAO! xD

[WWWwombat]

Vote Count D2.2:
Wombat (1): Kivam
Tress (1): Pral
Pral (2): Nyn, Thane
Not Voting (11): AJ, Cass, Darthe, Deslami, Dicesalad, DPR, Hallia, Krak, Rags, Tress, Verbarm, Wombat


At the gallows: Pral

[Kivam]

OK guys, I'm now going to disappear until late saturday night.  Shabbos starts at 4:30 today, so I need to spend some time working, cooking, and then I have a community event right after Shabbos; I may be able to check in on my phone between the end of Shabbos and the event, but probably won't be posting.

 

So feel free to bury the thread in posts and leave me with insane work to do when I get back.

[Pralaya]

 

Yates what are your thoughts on Kiv, Wombat, Deslami and Barm?

I just told Kiv my thoughts on him - he's hard to follow. Never played with him before. He looks rusty - like Rags was in that VS game - and using old school mafia logic. Probably going to make him hard to read as not-scum.

I can't tell if Wombat was being overzealous Town or Scum feeling the mood of the thread with that early push. So he's a null with an asterisk.

I forgot Deslami was a hydra. I find myself agreeing with a lot of Csarmi posts - which means I either figured out how to read him or his logic is sound. Des is Des. Give me until tomorrow on this slot.

Barm hasn't done anything outside of his Town range. I don't have a ton of experience with him but I actually got his logic most of the time in the 2 or so games we played together. He also seems to have decent instincts as the game progresses if Town so I'd like to keep him around. Plus I just realized he's hydra with Verb as I was making my "not willing to lynch" list. So this should be an interesting slot to read.

 

My Day 1 not willing to lynch list looks something like:

Dice [N0 - inno]

AJ

Verb/Barm

Desalami

Thane

Leelou

Barm

 

My let the NA's sort them out list is:

Wombat

Arsis

Hally

Krak

Nyn

Sili

Rags

 

Cass, Kivim, and Stelio are all new to me. It's been a LONG time since I played with DPR. So I may be looking for help on these guys.

 

And with that - I'm going to bed.

 

I was going through Yates' post and this post stood out to me. Not who has been mentioned but who has not been mentioned.

 

He doesn't mention Darthe in the list even though he is replying to him. But, he makes it up by immediately mentioning him one post later

 

However, one name he actually missed was Tress. It could be because he intentionally left her or her name totally slipped from his mind. I think it is the latter because Tress had a low number of posts and was virtually absent from the game at that point.

 

This makes me think I am wrong about Tress. Because if you are forgetting that she existed in the game, then she was most probably not Yates' teammate. He would have her in the mind if she was indeed his teammate and him not mentioning her at all makes me think she is actually town here.

 

unvote

[hazelkrs1]

Embarassing reading through Yates' iso and realizing I'M one of the people Yates was pocketing, and I was caught hook line and stinker.

 

[Nynaeve]

OK guys, I'm now going to disappear until late saturday night.  Shabbos starts at 4:30 today, so I need to spend some time working, cooking, and then I have a community event right after Shabbos; I may be able to check in on my phone between the end of Shabbos and the event, but probably won't be posting.

 

So feel free to bury the thread in posts and leave me with insane work to do when I get back.

 

Shabat shalom! ^_^

[WWWwombat]

Thoughts from today's play so far:

 

Kivam looks scummy

Des looks townie

DPR looks townie

 

Everyone else looks null

[csarmi]

I pocketed Despo.

[csarmi]

Wombat, what do you think about yesterday's train and the eventa following it?

 

As you took the town leadwr mantle apparently...

[DPR]

 

 

Yates what are your thoughts on Kiv, Wombat, Deslami and Barm?

I just told Kiv my thoughts on him - he's hard to follow. Never played with him before. He looks rusty - like Rags was in that VS game - and using old school mafia logic. Probably going to make him hard to read as not-scum.

I can't tell if Wombat was being overzealous Town or Scum feeling the mood of the thread with that early push. So he's a null with an asterisk.

I forgot Deslami was a hydra. I find myself agreeing with a lot of Csarmi posts - which means I either figured out how to read him or his logic is sound. Des is Des. Give me until tomorrow on this slot.

Barm hasn't done anything outside of his Town range. I don't have a ton of experience with him but I actually got his logic most of the time in the 2 or so games we played together. He also seems to have decent instincts as the game progresses if Town so I'd like to keep him around. Plus I just realized he's hydra with Verb as I was making my "not willing to lynch" list. So this should be an interesting slot to read.

 

My Day 1 not willing to lynch list looks something like:

Dice [N0 - inno]

AJ

Verb/Barm

Desalami

Thane

Leelou

Barm

 

My let the NA's sort them out list is:

Wombat

Arsis

Hally

Krak

Nyn

Sili

Rags

 

Cass, Kivim, and Stelio are all new to me. It's been a LONG time since I played with DPR. So I may be looking for help on these guys.

 

And with that - I'm going to bed.

 

I was going through Yates' post and this post stood out to me. Not who has been mentioned but who has not been mentioned.

 

He doesn't mention Darthe in the list even though he is replying to him. But, he makes it up by immediately mentioning him one post later

 

However, one name he actually missed was Tress. It could be because he intentionally left her or her name totally slipped from his mind. I think it is the latter because Tress had a low number of posts and was virtually absent from the game at that point.

 

This makes me think I am wrong about Tress. Because if you are forgetting that she existed in the game, then she was most probably not Yates' teammate. He would have her in the mind if she was indeed his teammate and him not mentioning her at all makes me think she is actually town here.

 

unvote

 

 

Awww man, I was really loving your Tress vote. 

[DPR]

Thoughts from today's play so far:

 

Kivam looks scummy

Des looks townie

DPR looks townie

 

Everyone else looks null

 

I'm also loving that the Godfather is dead. Makes me all tingly.

[hazelkrs1]

Okay finished grabbing quotes from Yates Spew 2014. Wall of Text_^tm incoming...

[DPR]

@Wombat - Regarding the angle to my Cass bait that I haven't discussed - you see a red light or tinfoil?

 

I'm trying to clear my head after being trolled all damn day. 

[Thane Vakarian]

*hands DPR some good belgains beers*

that should help *nod*

[WWWwombat]

Wombat, what do you think about yesterday's train and the eventa following it?

 

As you took the town leadwr mantle apparently...

 

 

Did you read my explanation post?  I didn't like the trains on DPR and Pral.  So I directed things personally.  People are mad about that and now want me dead.  But seeing as Pral looks to be spewed town to me and DPR is looking increasingly townie today, I regret nothing.

[Thane Vakarian]

excsue me for not agreeing with you on Pral there Wombat.... 

[WWWwombat]

@Wombat - Regarding the angle to my Cass bait that I haven't discussed - you see a red light or tinfoil?

 

I'm trying to clear my head after being trolled all damn day. 

 

I really don't think anyone else was writing Cass' posts.  If you have other reasons for suspecting her, that's ok imo, but I have her as a very light town lean.

[WWWwombat]

excsue me for not agreeing with you on Pral there Wombat.... 

 

Looked to me like Yates was pretty earnestly trying to get Pral killed.  Unlikely to be a bus move imo.  Yates was clearly trying to "deep wolf" but I don't see him saccing a scum PR on D1 for no other reason.

[Thane Vakarian]

you have a point.. But i didn't like his posts here mixing up names. Hence my vote.