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 A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

[Basic]TRON Mafia Game-Day 4

Xthrax

By Xthrax
in DM Mafia Games

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BFG Spam Master

BFG

Posted
Posted

Below may be somewhat redundant now since I'm not the first person to think of this... but posting it anyway.

 

 

 

Colors of people voting indicate LIKELINESS OF VOTES TO CHANGE NOT ALLIGNMENT. This is based on non-Americans being awake so more likely to be around to change a vote. And the VC was taken from before the Americans went to bed (assumed time)

Red – American, no danger of being lynched (0 votes)

Orange – American, little danger of being lynched (1 vote)

Green – In danger of being lynched. (2 votes)

Blue – Non American, available to change votes

So green and blue are more likely to change votes, due to necessity and/or availability. Orange are more likely to pay attention just in case and red are likely to leave alone – no danger of no coroners, and they’re already voting their strongest read.

 

BfCsarmi (2) – Darthe, Vos

Lenlo (2) – Drunk, Rand

NB (2) – Clov, Tommy

 

RandA lThor (1) – Lenlo

TG (1) – Mynd

Clov (1) – Nynlia

 

Tommy (1) – NB – I don’t think Tommy was in much danger of his train increasing from reads in the last 24 hours, TG unvoting this train also helped steal momentum from it.

Not Voting (2) – TG, BFCsarmi

 

No votes:

Vos

Drunk

Mynd

Nynlia

Darthe

 

 

Things to note.

NB, Lenlo, BFCsarmi were all off the ‘major’ trains, so could all in theory ‘save’ ourselves, (unless the others ganged up /shrug)

 

I’m WIFOMing myself a bit here, but I don’t see NB/Mynd as mafia/mafia. I think if Mynd moved the trains to ‘save’ NB then he’d have told NB not to vote. If NB was town and Mynd mafia then there’s no need for Mynd to draw attention to himself by shifting his vote, additionally if NB were town and Mynd mafia, shifting votes removes (almost certainly, given who was around) one of his mislynches. So I think Mynd is town here regardless of NotBobs alignment.

 

Csarmi thinks NB would have turned up earlier if he was mafia and has a gut read, if light that he’s town. That means mafia have no fear of a random lynch this time round. So for now I’m putting NB as town as well.

 

There is a possibility of tinfoiling on Mynd, general reputation has him as an aggressive player, so he might not shy away from the attention, particularly if mafia is all in the non-voted pile and thus arguably more suspicious.

 

 

Vos’s fixed vote is potentially interesting, but my head’s not ready for the WIFOM around that just yet, maybe after salsa, but in short Csarmi was around and there was no way that he (or I) wouldn’t have moved our vote to one of the others, so without someone else voting us we weren’t getting lynched that close to deadline, so leaving his vote on us is interesting.

 

NotBobs vote is null (to me) think Csarmi finds the timing of it town, as wanting to save yourself near lynch is none alignment indicative.

 

In short mafia are most likely to be found in Vos, Drunk, Mynd, Nynlia & Darthe taken objectively. I think Mynd is likely town from all of this, and had a previous town read on Nynlia leaving Vos, Drunk & Darthe.

Next group would be: Tommy, Rand, TG, Clov. I also had a town read on Tommy so...

 

 

I also want to look at peoples reads closest to the lynch to look at who 'could' have been in danger if more people had shifted their votes, but alas, out of time right now.

 

 

 

Likely town but possibility of tinfoiling still pretty high:

Mynd

NotBob

Tommy

Nynlia

 

Could slip into mafia list pretty easily:

Rand

TG

Clov

 

Leaning mafia:

Vos

Darthe

Drunk

 

Hopefully I'll be able to finish this later.

Clovdyx Spam Master

Clovdyx

Posted
Posted

 

UnOfficial Vote Count-Day 1

 

BFcsarmi: 2 - Darthe, Vos

TG: 1 - Mynd

RandA lThor: 1 - Lenlo

Lenlo: 2 - Drunk Tank, RandA lThor

Tommy: 1 NotBob

Clov: 1 - NynLia

NotBob: 2 - Clov, Tommy

Darthe: 1 - BFcsarmi

 

Not Voting: 1 - TG

 

12 Alive, takes 7 to Lynch

Time to consolidate our trains.  TG not having a vote on anyone this close to deadline bothers me.

 

You work very hard. Thank you.

@Drunk Tank - if you could lynch anyone currently listed above besides Lenlo today, who would it be and why?

 

Oh shit. 2 hours til' deadline. Never seen such a spread out VC on day 1 2 hours before deadline. I guess it's one of the things with the hybrid hammer set-up.

 

Not really stoked about letting random.org decide who dies, but I'm not really sold on neither Lenlo nor NotBob.

 

Pretty comfortable leaving my vote where it is for now, especially since BFG is still MIA and Csarmi seems to be doing damage control more than scum hunting. 

I don't like this post at all.  I would expect this post from Lenlo but not Vos. He starts out with how shocked and panic'd he is about having only 2 hours until deadline.  He stresses how he doesn't want the lynch to go to random; however, he refuses to unvote BeefArmi because one is missing and the other "seems" to be doing damage control.   So basically, he doesn't wanna change his vote to keep the lynch going random because Lenlo and NotBob "might" be town, but Beef Armi "might" be scum. 

 

How can you be that sold on one player being scum enough to risk the random lynch? I don't like this and it stinks.

 

Actually, I wouldn't mind so much if random.org decided who went today based on how hard everyone has been to read in this game; however, we need the vote count info to go forward. 

 

 

 

[v]Darthe[/v]

 

Most confident there.

BeefArmi is either towniegood or bumped their collective head.   Why would one of the three possible random.org lynches place his/their vote on Darthe, bringing him to one vote?  He could have easily moved his vote to Lenlo or NotBob, which would have moved either one of them into the lead lynch. 

 

Unless, of course, the scum team is Lenlo/NotBob/BeefArmi.....but that would be too cray-cray, right?

 

 

Mynd - I like the thought process you're showing here with your analysis, though I think you're slightly misrepresenting what Vos said about Lenlo and NB.  He said that he's not sold on either of them - I think this gives a higher level of trust than 'they "might" be town'.  I want to draw extra attention to the fact that Vos was essentially letting it go random, even though the people that it would be randed between were the two he wasn't willing to lynch. 

nervositee Community Regular

nervositee

Posted
Posted

 

Oh shit. 2 hours til' deadline. Never seen such a spread out VC on day 1 2 hours before deadline. I guess it's one of the things with the hybrid hammer set-up.

 

Not really stoked about letting random.org decide who dies, but I'm not really sold on neither Lenlo nor NotBob.

 

Pretty comfortable leaving my vote where it is for now, especially since BFG is still MIA and Csarmi seems to be doing damage control more than scum hunting. 

I don't like this post at all.  I would expect this post from Lenlo but not Vos. He starts out with how shocked and panic'd he is about having only 2 hours until deadline.  He stresses how he doesn't want the lynch to go to random; however, he refuses to unvote BeefArmi because one is missing and the other "seems" to be doing damage control.   So basically, he doesn't wanna change his vote to keep the lynch going random because Lenlo and NotBob "might" be town, but Beef Armi "might" be scum. 

 

How can you be that sold on one player being scum enough to risk the random lynch? I don't like this and it stinks.

 

Actually, I wouldn't mind so much if random.org decided who went today based on how hard everyone has been to read in this game; however, we need the vote count info to go forward. 

 

 

First of all it was surprise since I thought we had more time. I had very little time today inbetween getting up and leaving so instead of being able to sit down and read and think I had to toss stuff in there. So yeah, it was all abit rushed, including what you quoted. 

 

However, I think you're overplaying this. I'd prefer not to let random decide, so I would have changed my vote to secure a majority if I thought any of the other trains were as likely to catch us a scum. But I didn't. And it was still 2 hours until deadline so sod off Clov for "drawing extra attention to the fact that Vos was essentially letting it go to random". 

 

 

@NB - Trying to control the game flow is not alignment indicative for Tommy

@Tommy - Trollling is not alignment indicative for NB

 

 

you're both pretty

 

 

A town-point for you sir. 

 

Beside that I'm ish around but will weight more in when day breaks. 

Clovdyx Spam Master

Clovdyx

Posted
Posted

Level 1 analysis says Salami looks good for his attempt to consolidate votes onto someone that might be scum and being visibly uncomfortable with spread wagons. Drunk looks bad for leaving his vote on Lenlo for the entire day and making no attempt to stir the pot. His original vote for Len was wolfy. NotBob looks null to bad for the no-discussion pop-in vote after Salami coalesced. Mynd's energy went way up at EOD, maybe slight town points for that.

 

Why do you think Csarmi looks good for solidating?  I know the mindset here is "any lynch is better than no lynch", but NL was never on the table due to the set up and Csarmi spent how many posts saying how he wasn't support of a lynch?  I don't know if anybody would have moved away from Lenlo, but he could have actually tried building a better case for Darthe if he's as convinced Darthe as scum as he makes it seem.

 

Disagree with you about NB in terms of null-to-bad.  I can't say he's more likely to be town based on his vote, but I don't have any problems with it.  I'll vote my strongest townread if it keeps me out of the running.

csarmi Spam Master

csarmi

Posted
Posted

A few quick thoughts.

 

  1. It makes perfect sense for Vos to keep his vote on his strongest scum read (and not move to the other trains). The random part doesn't.
  2. I agree with Clov that (con)solidating by itself is null there. To reference his question: I've made it very clear who I would prefer not to lynch (and why) before going to sleep. I'm pretty sure it was also clear whom I'd like to lynch. I was kind of hoping that I'd wake up to some movements and/or BFG having time to finalize (she didn't). As for why not build a better case on Darthe - I'm not a casing type, and also I was physically incapable of doing that during the morning (I was at work and feeling wrecked).
RandA lThor Spam Master

RandA lThor

Posted
Posted

Im waiting mainly for night to end, I have a feeling it'll give us some good info.  At this point the role of anyone will give good info.

csarmi Spam Master

csarmi

Posted
Posted

Im waiting mainly for night to end, I have a feeling it'll give us some good info.  At this point the role of anyone will give good info.

scummy

nervositee Community Regular

nervositee

Posted
Posted

 

Im waiting mainly for night to end, I have a feeling it'll give us some good info.  At this point the role of anyone will give good info.

scummy

 

 

because inactive at night or because role-fishing?

csarmi Spam Master

csarmi

Posted
Posted

1) the inherent assumption that he's gonna live through the night

2) the inactivity at night

 

I don't think he's rolefishing though.

Xthrax Experienced

Xthrax

Posted
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Posted

It was late at night. Lora Baines was sitting late at the computer trying to work out what had gone wrong in the Mainframe. She was convinced that Alan hadn't done anything wrong. Suddenly she made a discovery-it wasn't a virus. It was as if someone was trying to shut everything down from inside. As if the the Mainframe was alive. Before she could find out more, she heard footsteps behind her and turned around. There was a sudden bang and she felt a sudden wetness. All she said was "You" in a surprised manner and everything went black.

 

The curious thing was she had not signed off the Mainframe.

 

Vos, Lora Baines, Vanilla Town was Killed

Myndrunner Grand Master

Myndrunner

Posted
Posted

Thanks mafia? I hope that was sarcasm, Salami. Damn MCP and that punk Dillinger killed Lacy Underalls!

 

This is the scummiest I've seen Vos play, especially with his refusal to unvote while not wanting the votes to go random.  If any of the mafia had a strong scum case against him, he wouldn't have been the choice.  Why was he the choice? No one here is a n00b to mafia, so they chose Vos because his death would benefit them the most.

 

Who looks more townie and innocent because Vos flipped town?  Was he onto something or was he a threat?

 

@Rand - you were anxiously awaiting the turn of the phase.  How does Vos flipping town change your overall reads?

 

@Csarmi - what did you mean "Thanks Mafia" for clearing what up?

 

@TG - Why are you so mafia?

Nynaeve Spam Master

Nynaeve

Posted
Posted
 

We been susp of Vos. They killed them. Profit.

 

You should be going "Oops, guess we were wrong" ..... not "Thank you scum."  I don't see how losing a townie is profit.

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