The Hunger Games Mafia [Advanced] Game over! Town and TG wins!

[Elaevia]

Will be in and out this weekend - two of the other half's younger (teenage) siblings are staying and how down time I get will depend on what we do. Will be probably gone for the next 24 hours, at least

[michellem]

Too tired for scene, it'll come tomorrow.

 

 

Hallia, Boy from District 6, has been killed.

[bgrishinko]

We gotta be careful today. We can't mass claim, but a single vote on the wrong person could create a win for mafia if they all do a simultaneous vote and there are 3 of them. If there are only 2 that gives some leeway, but risk is still high.

[michellem]

Oh yeah deadline will be Tuesday 1am GMT+1. Will add countdown link tomorrow. Sleepy moddess is sleepy.

[Graendals favourite]

Yea, careful.

 

So we're kaylee, via, gf, dice, razen, bg and tg.

 

There's a third party so I don't know that we're at lylo yet, but we should be very careful.

[Tyler Glembo]

We are at LyLo.  Everybody needs to state who they intend to vote and why BUT NOBODY VOTE!!! 

 

Assuming Razen is town related vig (or survivor), that brings it down to kaylee, via, dice, and BG.  I'm assuming there are three scum.  75% chance of hitting scum.  My logic from yesterday holds that I don't see dice and bg pulling the continuous voting of each other as pure distancing.  I could be wrong, but if one is scum and one is town then Kaylee and Via are definitely scum.

 

I'm stating my intent to vote Via.

 

 

Yea, careful.

 

So we're kaylee, via, gf, dice, razen, bg and tg.

 

There's a third party so I don't know that we're at lylo yet, but we should be very careful.

 

GF, is there anything more that you can give us at all?  Would be helpful right about now.

[Graendals favourite]

yea, I suppose I can't wait. I am cop, I know 3 people, myself included, who are not mafia, one of the others third party. I am not certain I should give mafia their names at this point of day.

[Graendals favourite]

Now, how do the numbers go. Does third party existence imply 5 mafia in the beginning, or is it still 6. We cannot afford to lynch town, but lynching the third party may not be much better at this point. The mafia are 2 or 3 out of 4 people.

[Tyler Glembo]

We need to lynch scum at this point.  3rd party can win with town, so let's leave them alone.  If you give us all three names but don't indicate anything else that should clear things up and we can solve this game.

[Graendals favourite]

Yes, it is smart. I could think to wait till tomorrow, but tough going today that would make. I would eventually need to point out we shouldn't vote this or that person.

 

The non-mafia are me, you and dice.

[bgrishinko]

Well. My intent is Via with Razen as 3rd party.

[bgrishinko]

Razen, you 3rd party bro?

[dicetosser1]

I assume the "you" is TG

 

My intent is tossing up between Via and BG.

[bgrishinko]

I got to thinking about the 3rd party.. It also depends on whether 3rd party actually wins with town or not, that's not a given. Via and Kaylee are obviously mafia assuming Razen as 3rd party. We go after them we get 4 v. 2. v. 1 today. 3 v. 1 v. 1 tomorrow. 2 v. 0 v. 1 final day 3rd party wins solo in these cases normally.

 

If we randomly mislynch (me), we have 2 v. 2 v. 1 tomorrow, 1 v. 1 v. 1 next day and Razen wins again.

 

Hypothetically, if I were Mafia then it would be 3 v. 3 v. 1 today, 2 v. 2 v. 1 tomorrow, 1 v. 1 v. 1 the next day. Razen wins.

 

Basically, if Razen wins solo, both teams are all screwed. Though it would be a pretty good epic finish for a Hunger Games game having a sole survivor to win.

 

If Razen can win with town though, he can also win with mafia and any scenario mafia equal to town Razen should side with mafia to ensure survival. Mafia would lose if Razen sides with town no matter what, but mafia can still NK Razen to ensure Razen won't win as their numbers dwindle.

 

Therefore our optimal chance of winning is to kill Razen at some point. If someone still has another 1 shot Doc somewhere we are in even better shape to possibly protect from NK. 4 v. 2 v. 1 then 3 v. 2 v. 0 then 2 v. 1 then town wins.

 

Razens only chance of surviving is to side with mafia else be killed. Simple math.

[michellem]

Vote count:



Not voting: Via, Razen, Dice, Kaylee, GF, BG2.0, TG

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline is Wednesday 1am GMT+1 http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130529T01&p0=1375&msg=End+of+Day+7
 

[Tyler Glembo]

Razen, you 3rd party bro?

 

GF only gave us 2 names (besides himself) but said he had three.  He could be protecting them?

 

I assume the "you" is TG

 

My intent is tossing up between Via and BG.

 

Okay, so three intents for Via

 

I got to thinking about the 3rd party.. It also depends on whether 3rd party actually wins with town or not, that's not a given. Via and Kaylee are obviously mafia assuming Razen as 3rd party. We go after them we get 4 v. 2. v. 1 today. 3 v. 1 v. 1 tomorrow. 2 v. 0 v. 1 final day 3rd party wins solo in these cases normally.

 

If we randomly mislynch (me), we have 2 v. 2 v. 1 tomorrow, 1 v. 1 v. 1 next day and Razen wins again.

 

Hypothetically, if I were Mafia then it would be 3 v. 3 v. 1 today, 2 v. 2 v. 1 tomorrow, 1 v. 1 v. 1 the next day. Razen wins.

 

Basically, if Razen wins solo, both teams are all screwed. Though it would be a pretty good epic finish for a Hunger Games game having a sole survivor to win.

 

If Razen can win with town though, he can also win with mafia and any scenario mafia equal to town Razen should side with mafia to ensure survival. Mafia would lose if Razen sides with town no matter what, but mafia can still NK Razen to ensure Razen won't win as their numbers dwindle.

 

Therefore our optimal chance of winning is to kill Razen at some point. If someone still has another 1 shot Doc somewhere we are in even better shape to possibly protect from NK. 4 v. 2 v. 1 then 3 v. 2 v. 0 then 2 v. 1 then town wins.

 

Razens only chance of surviving is to side with mafia else be killed. Simple math.

 

True. I think the plan then is to take out two scum and then take a close look at the remaining players. 

[bgrishinko]

TG, GF, Dice = Town.

 

Razen = likely 3rd party

 

Via, BG, Kaylee = Possible mafia.

 

I know I'm Town. So Via and Kaylee are mafia. If we kill both of them, Razen likely wins. I'd rather kill 3rd party first then them. Or one of them, 3rd party, then the other. It's the only way to prevent Razen siding with Mafia.

[bgrishinko]

Unless I completely misunderstood GF. Are you saying you know TG, GF, and Dice to be town + an extra 3rd part extists? Or are you saying one of GF, TG, or Dice are 3rd party?

[bgrishinko]

Either way, the scenario is the same whether Razen is the 3rd party or someone else.

 

GF, if you know who the 3rd party is, we should know to lynch em.

[bgrishinko]

I'm officially changing my intent to vote the 3rd party.

[Tyler Glembo]

If there is a 3rd party that is a threat or not that doesn't matter yet.  If there are three mafia left then a lynch of anybody not mafia will lose the game for town.  Mafia needs to be lynched at this point. 

 

In fact, vote Via

[bgrishinko]

If there's 3 mafia left, we've already lost. Them plus mafia = majority.

[bgrishinko]

*3rd party + mafia = majority

[Kaylee]

If there is a 3rd party that is a threat or not that doesn't matter yet.  If there are three mafia left then a lynch of anybody not mafia will lose the game for town.  Mafia needs to be lynched at this point. 

 

In fact, vote Via

I agree with this. Third party is something to worry about, but getting scum is more important. I'm more inclined to vote where I think we can hit scum. I'm willing to vote Via at this point.

[Tyler Glembo]

Given that Via has not been hammered means she is scum because scum team would have speed lynched if she were town.