There Goes the Neighborhood (Game Thread) - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[Myndrunner]

Wow Nolder, so angry! Is it because your fellow mafia teammate just asked to be replaced?

[Nolder]

yep

 

she left me high and dry right after the wedding

 

what a bummer

[Gabriel Kross]

SHE DON'T LOVE YOU BRO SHE WANTED YO MONIES

[Gabriel Kross]

naw but seriously I think we have quite a few who have yet to check in still

[Christine]

alive. home. no surgery till next week.

[Sakaea]

What happened, Chrissy?

[Basel Gill]

I know it's only D1, but Mynd's idea here strikes me as paper-thin even for D1. EP is scum, solely because he has yet to be scum? This seems kind of out there even for Mynd. I'm not buying it. He may be looking to shake things out and look for reactions, but it just seems too strange for him. Vote Mynd.

[Nolder]

going off that thought

 

what would Mynd say about someone who has never played before and therefore has never been town or scum?

[John E. Kelley]

going off that thought

 

what would Mynd say about someone who has never played before and therefore has never been town or scum?

 

Obviously that they're scum. Y'know, to shake the trees,beat the grass, all that...

[Naeann]

-hugs Christine- Take care of yourself hun.

 

Mynd.. there's prodding someone to get info and there's being a jerk.. you are pushing the latter. Chill out. Levi is out of the game and therefore your last comment was personal. Keep it IN the game or don't say it at all.

 

 

I found the interaction with Levi and Mynd odd myself but will see how he interacts with her replacement.

[Myndrunner]

I know it's only D1, but Mynd's idea here strikes me as paper-thin even for D1. EP is scum, solely because he has yet to be scum? This seems kind of out there even for Mynd. I'm not buying it. He may be looking to shake things out and look for reactions, but it just seems too strange for him. Vote Mynd.

 

Fabricate your reason to vote for me all you want, you are simply bandwagoning.

[Myndrunner]

going off that thought

 

what would Mynd say about someone who has never played before and therefore has never been town or scum?

 

They would be considered new.

[Myndrunner]

Mynd.. there's prodding someone to get info and there's being a jerk.. you are pushing the latter. Chill out. Levi is out of the game and therefore your last comment was personal. Keep it IN the game or don't say it at all.

 

How was my comment personal? This is all gameplay. I'd really like to know how I am being a jerk. I have no emotions involved in this game at all.

[Nolder]

going off that thought

 

what would Mynd say about someone who has never played before and therefore has never been town or scum?

 

They would be considered new.

so would you take them off the list entirely or what...?

 

it's all guesswork and BS

keep the new person on or take them out

doesn't mean a thing

[John E. Kelley]

Mynd.. there's prodding someone to get info and there's being a jerk.. you are pushing the latter. Chill out. Levi is out of the game and therefore your last comment was personal. Keep it IN the game or don't say it at all.

 

How was my comment personal? This is all gameplay. I'd really like to know how I am being a jerk. I have no emotions involved in this game at all.

 

To add to this, it's Mafia people. This isn't a nice game. We don't sit around and sing Coombaya around the fire and tell each other how mice their hair looks. If anything, I think we here on DM are far TOO nice in their gameplay. I like Levity and all, she's a sweetheart, but seriously, if you can't handle people trying to get under your skin and scumhunt, you probably have no business playing. None of it is personal and it shouln't be received as such. Grow a thick skin if you want to play. If you're getting a hard time, give it right back. You can't let your emotions get the best of you, or you've already lost.

[John E. Kelley]

mice? Really? That should be *nice

[Myndrunner]

And you all thought Day 1 in mafia would be boring!

[Songstress]

mice? Really? That should be *nice

 

No, no, you said mice. Clearly you are a rat.

 

My vote stays on Ishy. *nod me*

 

Also, FOS everyone who's buying into whatever Mynd is trying to sell.

[Christine]

Kae, I keep mean ing to post something about it but my meds are really strong and aggravates my add. Gonna post just the blunt truth in spoilers, but lets not spam the thread.

 

 

 

I have an ovarian cyst that is measuring 8x8x5 cm that is currently smothering both of them. For comparison, anything more than two is considered extremely painful. It is quite possibly the worst pain I have ever felt and it is getting worse.

 

 

 

 

I will try again in the morning to fill in more details.

 

 

[Christine]

Also, Mynd, you are being a heavier version of you this game.

 

I'm watching you.

[Myndrunner]

[Blackhoof]

I have an idea that I've been chewing on for the last few games, and this seems like the perfect one to try it. Screw casing and metagaming on day one, let's use raw numbers to figure out who to lynch on Day 1.

 

Ok, here is the roster:

 

1. Ishy

2. Nolder

3. Basel

4. Arez

5. Razen

6. BG

7. Songstress

8. Nae

9. Lenlo

10. Hoof

11. Piano

12. Darthe

13. Sakaea

14. Pale

15. Kaylee

16. Christine

17. Levity

18. peace

19. Nynaeve

20. Tina

21. Key

22. EP

23. Little Miss

24. Mynd

 

24 player game. At worst, a 1/3 ratio is typically used for proper balance of non-town to town players. In a 24 player game like this, that would mean that there could be as many as 8 non-town players. These will of course include the mafia team (or teams) but could also include third party players such as solo-win, mercenaries, and symps. This also means we could have as good as a 1/3 chance of lynching a scummie on Day 1. Follow me so far? *nod your head*

 

Now, each of us that is town are 100% sure of one player who is town....that being ourselves. So, remove your own name from your list of players. That leaves 23 other players.

 

We don't need to figure out the entire mafia team today, just set the groundwork for hunting them later on. Trains built upon townie players will grow faster than those on mafia players, especially the closer we get to deadline. When we choose one or two players to build a train on, mafia will likely be reluctant to vote until about 24 hours before deadline, with the typical "Well, we don't want it to go random" or "well, for the sake of majority, I'll vote townieman..." Make sense?

 

So here is where it gets tricky, in a true Mat Cauthon tossing-the-dice sort of way. When playing blackjack in Vegas, I tried counting cards but I sucked at it. I then realized that I didn't have to count them so long as I followed what was likely going to happen. After playing several hands, I realized that lightening rarely struck twice. So, after the dealer got blackjack, I would double my bet on the following hand. When I would get blackjack, I would bet low on the following hand. Confusing you yet? Probably.

 

What I am trying to illustrate is that players who have been mafia in past games are less likely to be mafia again. Now, Verbal would be the first to swoop in and say "THATS NOT TRUE" and he would be right in raw numbers. If you flip a coin 50 times, the odds of it flipping heads on the 31st time are the same as the 1st. Therefore, the odds of flipping 50 heads is 1/2. The LIKELYHOOD is not that simple since it would only take one tails to ruin the entire gambit. Still with me? Hopefully this will make sense now.

 

Ask yourself this. When was the last time you were mafia in a previous game? How many times have you been back to back mafia? I'm sure its happened to some of us and the odds of one being mafia have nothing to do with previous games. The LIKELYHOOD however is different. Sure, many will argue semantics, but keep in mind we don't need to be precise but we need to go with who is MOST LIKELY mafia on Day 1. The same thing goes for newbies. Mods typically don't fill all of the mafia slots with newbie players even if random.org dictates it, but mods will likely have at least one on their team in the interest of balance.

 

I know what you all are thinking. STOP GAMING THE MOD! But isn't that what we do anyway? Isn't the whole point of scum-hunting is figuring out who is scum and who is town by any means necessary?

 

So, this is what I propose. We sort the list of players into groups. Who has been mafia in their last game and who hasn't. Or who is a newbie and who is a veteran. Or even whose name begins with A and whose does not. (Sound familiar?) It really doesn't matter how we sort it just so that we do sort them and then choose to lynch a player in the group that MOST LIKELY has mafia in it. I've played games with just about everyone on the list and some have been mafia and some have not.

 

Since I have yet to play a game where Eternal Phoenix has been scum......he fits my criteria for LIKELY being mafia in this game.

 

Therefore...... Eternal Phoenix

 

(The above is not a PR, but something I have actually been thinking about for several games.)

 

mynd, you have stumbled across the Gamblers Fallacy. So called because it is used by gamblers- "oh, i lost the last 50 times in a row, so i am bound to win soon!". it is blatantly incorrect, because it assumes that past events have relevance to future events in regards to complete chance, and in this case at least, they don't.

 

picture a tree diagram of an individual players' alignment in all his/her games. in game 1, he might have been scum, with a 1/4 chance of that happening. next time, he may have been town, with a 3/4 chance of that happening. assuming that the mod used random.org and a standard balanced setup, these odds hold true no matter how many games they play.

 

but, what if, this tree diagram looks like this::

game 1: mafia- 1/4

game 2: mafia- 1/4

game 3: mafia- 1/4

game 4: mafia- 1/4

game 5: mafia- 1/4

 

Whats this? absurd! mafia 5 times in a row! there is a 1/1024 chance of that happening! but it happened..... so they MUST be mafia in game 6!

 

However, we should NOT be looking at the tree diagram as a whole in this case. what you should be doing, is looking at each town/mafia branch INDIVIDUALLY.

 

 

game 1: mafia- 1/4

-

game 2: mafia- 1/4

-

game 3: mafia- 1/4

-

game 4: mafia- 1/4

-

game 5: mafia- 1/4

-

game 6: mafia or town- 1/4, 3/4

 

 

see, the odds in a tree diagram do not change, no matter the results already achieved. while there is a 1/1125899906842624 chance of always getting heads when flipping a coin 50 times in a row, there is STILL a 1/2 chance of getting tails next toss. and these odds remain the same on the 100th, the 1000th or the 1'000'000th time you flip the coin.

 

The universe dos not look at tree diagrams- it is a beast of the moment. it cares not if you have lost or won 50 times in a row, only that the odds of you winning or losing are EXACTLY THE SAME each time.

 

i do not think that you are scummy for this theory mynd, but i would hasten the town to avoid this fallacious gambler's logic, lest we lose all our money to the house.

[Darthe]

^

 

Yay for other Math people!

[dapianoplay3r]

Other math?

 

Im getting this weird feeling. I kinda want to defend mynd a bit. I must be going crazy.

I dont have time to go through it all properly now but what mynd said at the start was true. D1 lynches often start for complete bullshit reasons on the hope we get one of the mafia. The fact that he just went for it and didn beat around the bush got everyone's tail feathers ruffed.

The ruffling got some interesting reactions though.

But yea, I think what mynd did at the start was just choose someone at random and put some values to it to see help give it some sway (next time just light a torch, works better Mynd ;) )

Im off to sleep. Start work really early again'

 

Peace out

[Christine]

Clearly, you need sleep, piano.

 

 

Vote anyone doing math.