There Goes the Neighborhood (Game Thread) - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[Myndrunner]

I actually eliminated Hoof from my list as well because he typically has a knack for being town and getting his arse lynched or killed by Day 2.

 

Darthe is correct on the percentages, but if he is in three games currently, then he stands about a 33% chance of being scum in this game.

 

Levity being scum back to back 7 times is highly unlikely. I think she's trying to discredit the logic and protect Eternal Phoenix.

[Levity]

Levity being scum back to back 7 times is highly unlikely.

But possible. I was only mentioning it just to mention it, because RNG can be a really tricky thing. I hate making assumptions out of it. And it didn't happen here, it happened back at Serenes Forest, where I also play.

I could even pull up detailed records of it. It stopped suddenly after I took a break and came back to play later, and I've been town every game I played afterwards, which has been around five to six games now. It happens.

 

I just feel like you're trying to use a really beefed-up argument just to put suspicion on new players in the first place. You literally just said, "he's new and I haven't played with him, so likely chance is that he's mafia." I really don't like that. Again, I'm not defending anyone, but say what you will I suppose. If you did this to anyone else, I would be questioning.

And BG pretty much sheeped you, which makes me a little more wary.

 

Another thing, I don't like the idea of turning scumhunting into merely a game of numbers and probabilities. It kind of takes away from the essence of mafia and turns it into a complete gamble.

[Levity]

I will also mention that I hate it when people throw the word 'logic' at me when they try to discredit my own cases. It only bothers me more.

[Levity]

also why haven't you responded to my PM ):

[Myndrunner]

Levity being scum back to back 7 times is highly unlikely.

But possible. I was only mentioning it just to mention it, because RNG can be a really tricky thing. I hate making assumptions out of it. And it didn't happen here, it happened back at Serenes Forest, where I also play.

I could even pull up detailed records of it. It stopped suddenly after I took a break and came back to play later, and I've been town every game I played afterwards, which has been around five to six games now. It happens.

 

I just feel like you're trying to use a really beefed-up argument just to put suspicion on new players in the first place. You literally just said, "he's new and I haven't played with him, so likely chance is that he's mafia." I really don't like that. Again, I'm not defending anyone, but say what you will I suppose. If you did this to anyone else, I would be questioning.

And BG pretty much sheeped you, which makes me a little more wary.

 

Another thing, I don't like the idea of turning scumhunting into merely a game of numbers and probabilities. It kind of takes away from the essence of mafia and turns it into a complete gamble.

 

Why are you so staunch against this? Why are you protecting Eternal Phoenix? Why are you saying BG is acting like a sheep for simply agreeing with me?

 

Also, if you were indeed mafia for 7 games in a row straight, then my logic should conclude that you are not mafia in this game. Are you seriously saying I am wrong because you are mafia in this game?

[Levity]

I just don't like how you're turning the game into a numbers gamble. It makes it less fun, I guess. Maybe I'm the only one who thinks so. /:

[SBoydW]

Vote Count:

 

Ishy (1) - Songstress

Piano (1) - Christine

Christine (1) - Piano

EP (3) - peace, Myndrunner, BG

Nae (1) - Tina

Kae (1) - Ishy

Nyn (2) - Razen, Nolder

Nae (1) - Nynaeve

Arez (1) - Darthe

Little Miss (1) - Kae

BG (1) - Little Miss

Mynd (1) - EP

[Myndrunner]

I will also mention that I hate it when people throw the word 'logic' at me when they try to discredit my own cases. It only bothers me more.

 

You should try using logic more then. Perhaps your cases needed discrediting since you've been mafia 7 times in a row.

[Myndrunner]

I will also mention that I hate it when people throw the word 'logic' at me when they try to discredit my own cases. It only bothers me more.

 

You should try using logic more then. Perhaps your cases needed discrediting since you've been mafia 7 times in a row.

 

In fact, that statement itself bothers me to no end. The WORST mafia player never uses logic but emotion to play these games. Logic is the best weapon the town has against the mafia, and is VITAL to successful mafia play. If logic discredits your argument then it is likely your argument is illogical....as in WRONG!

 

I can't STAND players who refuse to listen to logic because they are emotionally invested in their opinion. Its one thing if they are scum trying to manipulate the game, but when its a townie who refuses to listen to reason or logic, that drives me NUTS!

[John E. Kelley]

Really quick to just blindly follow Mynd's lead aren't ya BG?

 

That sid, it seems as if Lev is trying really hard to protect EP. Either they're scum together, or Lev is positive of how EP will flip. I think the odds are better that Lev is scum in that scenario.

 

Unvote. Vote Levity.

[Gabriel Kross]

I am not so sure on a Levi lynch with more info I might be willing to vote her but your logic Mynd though it's sound in its most base reasoning is flawed for the fact that you assume Boyo picked the roles and didn't use random.org your whole case that isnt a case basicaly depends on it but with BG's blind following I'd say we'd probably find scum or third party there using your disregard of caseing/scumhunting to hide himself in

 

 

UNVOTE VOTE BG

 

I know you're a big fan of those elaborate traps Mynd but this one seems a bit out of character for you, I'll be watching you closely my friend

[Levity]

I don't like where this game is going already.

[Little Miss]

Interesting read Mynd, I was able to follow it easily enough, and I'll admit, it makes sense. However, it does start a train on EP, with BG agreeing with you. I'd like to see your suggestion, or other people's suggestions on possible lists we could work from before we stick (if we decided to go with lists) with the person you "feel" is mafia.

 

I ALSO am very wary of the blatant arrangement going between Mynd and Levity... it seems a bit... off, I guess. I feel it's almost superficial in how open and aggressive they are opposing each other.

[SBoydW]

Levity has asked to be replaced. From this point she is no longer considered an active player.

[Gabriel Kross]

I don't like where politics are going Levity but as they say the world goes on :P

[Gabriel Kross]

:( butbut this was my first game with Levity!

[SBoydW]

Vote Count:

 

Ishy (1) - Songstress

Piano (1) - Christine

Christine (1) - Piano

EP (3) - peace, Myndrunner, BG

Nae (1) - Tina

Kae (1) - Ishy

Nyn (2) - Razen, Nolder

Nae (1) - Nynaeve

Arez (1) - Darthe

Little Miss (1) - Kae

BG (2) - Little Miss, EP

[Little Miss]

I am not so sure on a Levi lynch with more info I might be willing to vote her but your logic Mynd though it's sound in its most base reasoning is flawed for the fact that you assume Boyo picked the roles and didn't use random.org your whole case that isnt a case basicaly depends on it but with BG's blind following I'd say we'd probably find scum or third party there using your disregard of caseing/scumhunting to hide himself in

 

 

UNVOTE VOTE BG

 

I know you're a big fan of those elaborate traps Mynd but this one seems a bit out of character for you, I'll be watching you closely my friend

 

 

Mynd didn't say that Soyo picked the roles, he DID however point out that it would be human and reasonable to make sure the mafia team wasn't filled with first time (or close enough) players.

[peacesells]

Mynd you built this case on categorizing people but only subitted EP. Did you really want to come up with groups? I've been gone to long to know who's been what here.

 

Anyway..the only benefit I see here is picking a way to put pressure on someone and see how they react and what bogus arguments others pile on with. After that...you can't really use the list anymore but you will have the interactions.

 

About EP are you saying he is new and hasn't been mafia yet?

[Myndrunner]

Mynd you built this case on categorizing people but only subitted EP. Did you really want to come up with groups? I've been gone to long to know who's been what here.

 

Anyway..the only benefit I see here is picking a way to put pressure on someone and see how they react and what bogus arguments others pile on with. After that...you can't really use the list anymore but you will have the interactions.

 

About EP are you saying he is new and hasn't been mafia yet?

 

The bolded.

[Myndrunner]

Levity has asked to be replaced. From this point she is no longer considered an active player.

 

[Nynaeve]

Mynd, I sort of get what you're getting at. Or at least, I think I do.

 

Compared to random day 1 votes... I suppose this plan is better than nothing. Aka it looks like it makes for better odds at nabbing scum with zero information. So I'm willing to give it a go. Later into the game, though, it's not really something I'd roll with as my lone reasoning. As in, I'd need more information integrated into it to cast my vote.

 

But right now it does the trick.

 

Unvote Nae

 

 

Vote Eternal Phoenix

 

 

 

 

Nyn

[Nolder]

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

 

Vote: Nyn

 

hehe. More like self pity. It's a new thing I'm trying out ^_^

 

 

 

Nyn

Welcome to the dark side

 

[Nolder]

What I am trying to illustrate is that players who have been mafia in past games are less likely to be mafia again. Now, Verbal would be the first to swoop in and say "THATS NOT TRUE" and he would be right in raw numbers. If you flip a coin 50 times, the odds of it flipping heads on the 31st time are the same as the 1st. Therefore, the odds of flipping 50 heads is 1/2. The LIKELYHOOD is not that simple since it would only take one tails to ruin the entire gambit. Still with me? Hopefully this will make sense now.

Verbal's not here so I guess I'll have to do

 

That's not true AT ALL

 

you're just as likely to scum every time you play a game (well actually the amount of players changes things a little bit)

in the recent past I got like 4 or 5 scum roles in a row for different games

what you're saying is entirely false and has no more bearing on the game than if we sorted players by their names in alphabetical order and said those most likely to be scum will be near the end

 

And then you follow all this BS up with a vote

unbelievable Mynd

 

Unvote: Nyn

Vote: Mynd

[Nolder]

I will also mention that I hate it when people throw the word 'logic' at me when they try to discredit my own cases. It only bothers me more.

 

You should try using logic more then. Perhaps your cases needed discrediting since you've been mafia 7 times in a row.

 

In fact, that statement itself bothers me to no end. The WORST mafia player never uses logic but emotion to play these games. Logic is the best weapon the town has against the mafia, and is VITAL to successful mafia play. If logic discredits your argument then it is likely your argument is illogical....as in WRONG!

 

I can't STAND players who refuse to listen to logic because they are emotionally invested in their opinion. Its one thing if they are scum trying to manipulate the game, but when its a townie who refuses to listen to reason or logic, that drives me NUTS!

I'd just like to note that you're using guesswork at this point not logic